フィードバック管理 と資源評価.


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フィードバック管理 と資源評価. 松石隆先生、菅野泰治先生、西村欣也先生はじめ北大の皆様に感謝. Feedback Management. Uncertainty in stock assessment Accountability Dynamic change in abundance Adaptability (tuning catch effort) Successive Monitoring!!!. Revised Management Procedure (RMP) in IWC.
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フィードバック管理 と資源評価 松石隆先生、菅野泰治先生、西村欣也先生はじめ北大の皆様に感謝

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Feedback Management Uncertainty in stock appraisal Accountability Dynamic change in plenitude Adaptability (tuning discover exertion) Successive Monitoring!!!

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Revised Management Procedure (RMP) in IWC Moratorium of business whaling since 1982 (until RMP?) RMP was embraced in 1994, however has not yet authorized.

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Feedback Management for Sika deer in Hokkaido , Japan 試される大地 http://www.marimo.or.jp/Kushiro_shichou/ezosika/

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Density-subordinate chasing weight (flexibility) %P >50%: Emergent Decrease (<4 years) 25% < %P : Gradual Decrease 5% < %P : Gradual Increase %P <5% or after the serious winter: Ban-on-Hunting Hokkaido, tried area

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Stage-Structured Model sika deer has little thickness impact and I disregarded N c , N f , N m : No. of calves(0.5), females & males(≧1.5) L fc ( t )= L mc ( t )= exp[-Q ( t ) H c ( t )]exp[-M c ( t )]exp[-R c ( t +1)], L ff ( t ) = exp[-Q ( t ) H f ( t )]exp[-M f ( t )]exp[-R f ( t +1)] , L mm ( t ) = exp[-Q ( t ) H m ( t )]exp[ m ( t )]exp[-R m ( t +1)] , Hokkaido, tried area

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Risk Management We set the upper and lower limit ( %P - & %P + ) of populace size P to such an extent that, inside the following 1 century, Prob{ P <1000 individuals} < 1% Prob{ %P < %P - or %P > %P + } < 5%. Thusly, %P -  5%, %P +  half Hokkaido, tried area 2

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Population Indices Catch & Watch per seeker day Spotlight registration Helicopter statistics Train mishaps Damage of agribusiness & ranger service Uncertainty of total size Hokkaido, tried area 3

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Population list by spotlight enumeration for eastern Hokkaido Population estimation has vast vulnerability Hokkaido, tried area

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Fallacy of 120 000 deer speculation >30000 deer were killed each year since 1995 Male deer is still plenteous Natural development rate is 15-20% Population started to diminish? 160-240 thousand deer in 1993 Hokkaido, tried area

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RMP for south Pacific minke whale P t +1 - P t = r [1-( P t/K ) z ] P t - C t think vulnerability in r , K, P t/K and P t (relative and total P) no age structure disregard instability in z (thickness impact)

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IWC/SC concensus 2000 minke whale is financially exploitable. Get Limit is dictated by L t =2.12 r ( P t/K - 0.54) P t Scientific whaling gets now 400!

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South Pacific minke whale might diminish! (Butterworth et al. 1999)

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Recent IWC (SOWER) registration information proposes Minke whale populace is 30%-70% as was in ca1990. Against whaling NGO may think "Whaling is over". Japan Gov\'t may think "this registration is indeterminate… "

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Why do minke whale diminish? Ancient rarity in observing Ecosystem change Short asset (krill) Competition with different whales Super-Compensation

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"Relic Hypothesis" RMP is feasible just under viable checking; Scientific whaling does not fulfill RMP. Preparatory methodology. Business whaling is Critically Endangered

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Competition theory Competition diminishes Recruitment or fertility? Grown-up mortality? Why did the minke whale increment in the 1980s?

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Super-Compensation Demographic Momentum because of intense change in catch exertion from the 1970 to 1990, Age structure changed incredibly. Same wonder as southern bluefin fish

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Age structure is evolving

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Demographic Momentum by a Leslie sort Model Age at development = 11years Moratorium in t =0 RMP start in t =30 Tune enrollment, >Tune absolute stock. Screen age structure!!! Experimental Whaling is valuable

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Conclusion Feedback administration ought to research stock size and age structure . Fleeting abatement of minke whale might be clarified by demographic force.

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