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11. Global Warming, Uncertainty, Irreversibility & LongTerm Policymaking (SPRING 2002).


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11. Global Warming, Uncertainty, Irreversibility & LongTerm Policymaking (SPRING 2002) Larry D. Sanders Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State University INTRODUCTION (ch. 10 Hackett) Purpose:
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11. A worldwide temperature alteration, Uncertainty, Irreversibility & LongTerm Policymaking (SPRING 2002) Larry D. Sanders Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State University

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INTRODUCTION (ch. 10 Hackett) Purpose: to end up mindful of the idea of instability & irreversibility as for ecological & normal asset arrangements Learning Objectives. To comprehend/get to be mindful of: 1. To comprehend instability & irreversibility. 2. To get to be mindful of the issue of a dangerous atmospheric devation. 3. To consider the arrangement alternatives as for possibly irreversible activities/occasions, for example, worldwide warming.

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Background on ideas Uncertainty - includes the likelihood that some occasion/activity will or won't happen precipitation new innovation Irreversibility - recommends that some activity/occasion will change an asset to the degree it can't be come back to its unique state, constraining future choices clear-cutting a woodland depleting a wetland damming a stream

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Risk Perceptions: may shift w/learning, seriousness of result, whether singular decision . . . Obscure Risk Desire for regulation Nitrogen Fertilizers Nitrites x RadioactiveWaste x Pesticides X Global warming Lead Paint x Caffeine DDT Minor Risk x Severe Risk Skate-boarding x Smoking x Nuclear War Rec. Sailing x Commercial Flying x Handguns Adapted from Carlson et al. Rural & Environmental Resource Economics , 1993; likewise Sanders Known Risk

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Case Study: Global Warming- - foundation Greenhouse gasses - carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorinated carbons Their capacity - channel sun powered vitality, constraining infrared vitality transmitted back into space Greenhouse impact - as nursery gas focus builds, catching of infrared vitality increments, & temperatures are liable to rise

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The Importance of Greenhouse Gasses Provides a trapping so as to sweep that “insulates the Earth warm, a considerable measure like sheets of glass in a nursery. . . ‘part of what makes the planet of work’. “Without nursery gasses, the Earth would be much excessively frosty for solace . . . issue now is that people are thickening the sweeping . . . & . . . nature’s indoor regulator is bumped up.” - From cnn.com exceptional segment on an Earth-wide temperature boost article “Messing with the indoor regulator can be devastating”, Miles O’Obrien, November 27, 1997.

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Sea level will rise 2-3 feet, covering numerous islands, changing coast lines & sullying water supplies Southern US atmosphere gets to be tropical changing ag generation Northern US atmosphere moderates, more like Southern US today Increase in warmth related passings/illnesses (intestinal sickness, dengue fever) Only 24% of open is concerned Models under-assessment complex worldwide biological system (can’t anticipate 7 days out, a great deal less years) Models under-appraisal the “technological fix” & market financial aspects Doubtful that administration intercession will do anything other than make more prompt issues The Claims about Global Warming: “It’s Real” “Skeptical”

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Case Study: Global Warming - - Science in Conflict Scientists keep on debating both 1. whether a worldwide temperature alteration is truth be told happening, & 2. the level of seriousness of effect Trade-offs: 1. On the off chance that expectations are genuine & nothing done to stop it, substantial scale changes in worldwide atmosphere that will seriously influence the planet & our geo-political-financial framework. 2. If forecasts are not genuine but rather moves are made to minimize an Earth-wide temperature boost (Kyoto Agreement), wide-scale monetary effects on the US will diminish intensity (30-half increment in fuel & service bills).

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If Global Warming Perceived as Market Failure S’=MCs S=MCp Price P2 D=MBp=MVp=MWTPp=MBs P1 Quantity Q2 Q1

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Major Contributors to Greenhouse Gasses Per Capita Energy Country Emissions (%) Consumption (mil. Btu) US 19 335 China 10 Japan 5 171 Brazil 4 33 Germany 4 India 4 UK 2 169 Indonesia 2 Italy 2

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Issues & Options with Global Warming KEY ISSUES: Time Perspective? Sources? Topography (Trans-national?) Irreversibility? Science? FREE MARKET RESEARCH & EXTENSION REGULATION SUBSIDIES

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Other Sources http://cnn.com/TECH (see intuitive elements; see a worldwide t