世界金融危機と日本 チャンスと課題.


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世界金融危機と日本 チャンスと課題. 慶応義塾大学 2009年1月10日 白井早由里. Structure of Presentation. Section 1. Condition of Monetary and Capital Markets Before the Subprime Advance Emergency. Remote Stocks Held by US Financial specialists. As of end-2007. Source: Arranged in light of US Treasury information. US Stocks Held By Remote Financial specialists.
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世界金融危機と日本 チャンスと課題 慶応義塾大学 2009å¹\'1月10日 白井早由里

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Structure of Presentation

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Part 1. Condition of Financial and Capital Markets Before the Subprime Loan Crisis

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Foreign Stocks Held by US Investors As of end-2007 Source: Prepared taking into account US Treasury information.

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US Stocks Held By Foreign Investors As of June 2007

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Limited Currency Mismatches on US Side As of Dec. & June 2007

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US Securities Held By Foreign Investors by Type of Securities and Originating Country As of June 2007(Billions $)

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Growing Foreign Reserves in East Asia (% World Foreign Reserves)

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Cross-Border Banking Activities (June 2008) (Billions of US Dollars) Source: Prepared Based on BIS information.

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US and Asia’s Foreign Asset Composition As of 2007 Source: Prepared Based on CEIC and US Gov. information.

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The Pattern of Capital Flows Before the Subprime Loan Crisis

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Summary and Additional Points in Part I US interest in outside stocks was dynamic and expansive Europe > Asia > Latin America US interest in remote stocks was more prominent than remote interest in US stocks Europe: 2484 versus 1594, Asia: 1182 versus 560 ($ billions) US government, office, and firms had the capacity issue a lot of LT securities in US dollar US leasers confronted a constrained level of cash befuddle US effectively put resources into remote LT securities issued in Cayman Islands (24%), UK (19%), and Australia (4%); and to a great extent in US dollar A decrease in US venture would prompt the lack of US dollars US speculators confronted a restricted level of swapping scale hazard

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US was daring person (putting effectively in outside securities exchanges, while raising supports globally through security markets) Europe was daring individual (putting effectively in US stocks, corporate securities, ABS, CDO, and so forth.) Asia was danger disinclined (putting effectively in US treasury securities and office securities) Foreign possessions of local stocks were vast in numerous nations (% of aggregate local stocks): 30% (Japan), 40% (Korea)  11% (US) Cross-fringe keeping money exercises were embraced to a great extent by US and European banks UK banks played the most critical delegate part as far as circling bank cash (chiefly through tolerating outside stores and putting resources into outside stores) Japanese banks were most dynamic among Asian banks, however their exercises were generally focused on the advantage side

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Part 2. Effect of the Subprime Loan Crisis

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Write-offs by Major Financial Institutions Have Concentrated in US and Europe As of October 2008 (Billions of US dollars)

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As a Result, A decrease in US venture abroad has happened mostly through cross-outskirt saving money exercises A lessening in remote bank advances and bank stores by US banks Also, a diminishment in outside bank stores by US firms Adversely influenced other countries’ keeping money exercises (e.g. Korea) A decrease in outside interest in US has additionally risen essentially through cross-outskirt saving money exercises Cuts in bank advances to US banks and firms, and also bank stores Adversely influenced credit accessibility and genuine economy in US ※ Cross-fringe managing an account exercises have dropped altogether on the worldwide level

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US Investment Abroad ($ Millions) ※ Minus demonstrates net surges ※Minus shows net outpourings Source: Prepared in light of IMF information

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Foreign Investment in US ($ Millions) ※Plus shows net inflows ※ Plus demonstrates net inflows

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Limited Exposure of Japanese Banks to Structured Credit Products As of June 2008 (Billion US dollars) Source: Prepared in view of the Financial Services Agency information.

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Factors Contributing to Limited Direct Damages in Japan Small Banks’ Losses (brought on straightforwardly by subprime credit emergency) No evacuation of firewalls among managing an account, securities, and protection Cautious conduct (lessons from the keeping money emergency in the 1990s) Dominant business saving money  Growing i nvestment saving money in US Heavy dependence on stores  expanding wholesale back in US and Europe Earlier acknowledgment of Basel II (from end-2006) than US and Europe Non-Existence of Serious Real Estate Bubbles in Japan Greater Scale of Real Estate Bubbles in US (90% expansion) in 2000-07 than Japan (half increment) in 1985-90 Small Household Debt Problems => Low Household Debt/GDP Ratios : Japan 70%  100% (US), 100% (UK), 110% (Australia) Limited Cross-Border Liabilities by Banks ($ billion, Sep. 07): 660 (Japan)  6,943 (UK), 3,554 (US), 2,644 (France), 2,013 (Germany) ※ Greater Cross-Border Assets by Banks: 2,217 (Japan)  6,567 (UK), 2,852 (US), 3,920 (Germany)

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subsequently ( until the Lehman Shock), Continued Positive Credit Growth by Japanese banks (no extreme credit crunch) Relatively stable interbank market => low 3monthTIBOR/FB spread ( around 0.5% ), yet higher dollar-designated rates for outside subsidiaries Mild increment in corporate security spreads ( 0.4% => 0.8% ) because of solid money related positions of non-monetary firms and abundant liquidity Increase in cross-fringe M&A High Capital Adequacy Ratio (as of September 2008) Mizuho (11.5%), Mitsubishi-UFJ (10.7%), Mitsui-Sumitomo (12.5%)

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Growing Issues Sharp Stock Price Drop (withdrawals by speculation trusts and remote financial specialists, declined corporate benefits because of drowsy development) Gov. activity : nullification of stripped short offering, change in the present quality bookkeeping, augmentation of low capital addition and profit charges, capital infusion plan, and buy of banks’ stocks by Banks Shareholdings Purchase Corp.) Tightening of banks’ loaning conduct (particularly against SMEs) Increase in the quantity of insolvency (development, land) Reflecting declining benefits (after high development time of 2002-07) ( Gov. activity : diminished strategy rates, expanded credit certifications and arrangement advances) Yen’s Appreciation (25%, rewinding of yen convey exchange and worldwide interest for yen as a sheltered cash) Declining Export Growth Japan’s exchange deficiencies in August, October and November 2008

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Stock Price Index (2000 M1=100) ※ Foreigner’s Share before Sep. 08 : Korea (30%), Japan (around 30%), Taiwan (32%), Thailand (31%), Indonesia (21%) Source: Prepared in light of CEIC.

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Movements of Exchange Rates 2007 M1=100 Appreciation Source: Prepared taking into account CEIC.

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Shares of Exports to US and EU(% Total Exports) China 19% Japan 20% Korea 12% US Market EU Market Japan 15% Korea 15% China 20%

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Japan: Decomposition of Real GDP Growth

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Part 3. Risks and Challenges for Japan and East Asia

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Chances and Challenges Faced By Japan and East Asia (1)Japan and Asia needs to build up a more noteworthy inside business sector for last merchandise Promoting more self-complete exchange coordination through an increment in household request (2) Japan and Asia need to course cash inside Asia: Heavy reliance on US dollar and US (and EU) danger taking cash ※ Need to create universal monetary focuses in Asia ※ Japanese banks ought to expand cross-fringe saving money exercises (3) Japan ought to all the more effectively participate in cross-outskirt and local M&A Large saves, great accounting reports, low worldwide stock costs, withdrawal of M&A by outside speculation trusts and remote firms) (4) Japan and Asia need to create danger free fluid resources (distinct option for US treasury bills) Promoting the utilization of JGBs abroad as store resources Greater endeavors to create Asian security markets (e.g., coin crate)

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Challenge 1 : More Independent Intra-Regional Trade in Asia Source: METI, White Paper 2007.

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Growing East Asia’s Intra-Regional Trade EU 62% Asia 56% Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Database.

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Challenge 2 : Need to Expand IFCs in Asia

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Japan’s Current Status in Asia

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Challenge 3 : Relatively Limited Outward FDI (¥100 Millions) ※Minus shows net surges Source: MOF.

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Outward FDI Stock ($ Billions, 2005) Source: OECD.

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