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Montenegro 15% Is Policy Reform Making a Difference to the Investment Environment in South East Europe? Promotion to the European Union (EU) is ...
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2008 THE CONTINUAL GROWTH OF THE REGION Regional C ooperation on S ocial-E conomic D evelopment in South Eastern Europe Sarajevo, May 15 th , 2008. REPUBLIC OF SERBIA Ministry of Economy and Regional Development Velimir Gavrilovi ć, Assistant Minister

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REGIONAL INITIATIVES AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION Regional Cooperation Council Central European Free Trade Agreement OECD Investment Compact Initiative SEE Investment Committee Business Advisory Council for South Eastern Europe Energy Community of South Eastern Europe Cooperation Process in South Eastern Europe Central Europian Initiative Organization of t he Black See Economic Cooperation The Adriatic – Ionian Initiative South Eastern Cooperative Initiative The European Common Aviation Area Agreement Danube Cooperation Process International Sava River Basin Commision Migration, Asylum, Refugees Regional Initiative

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CEFTA (South East Europe Free Trade Area) – business sector of application. 30 million purchasers ██ EU part states ██ EFTA part states ██ CEFTA part states

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Real GDP Growth Rate (%) in SEE Countries * Estimation ** Projection *** GDP development estimates for 2008 (Source: http://www.ebrd.com/nation/segment/econo/details/gdp.xls ) Source: EBRD Transition Report – redesign May, 2007

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Real GDP Growth Rate (%) in SEE Countries

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Growth Comparison with Other Regions Source: EBRD Transition Report 2007

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Inflation, GDP Deflator (Annual %) Source: The World Bank Group

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Foreign Direct Investment, Net, in mil. EUR * Estimate ** Projection *** EBRD gauges for 2008 – in millions US $ (Source: http://www.ebrd.com/nation/segment/econo/details/fore.xls ) Source: EBRD Transition Report – upgrade May, 2007

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Foreign Direct Investment, Net, 2000-2007 in mil. EUR Source: EBRD

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 Foreign Direct Investment, G ross (BoP, mil. USD) Source: The World Bank Group

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 Foreign Direct Investment, G ross , 2000-2006 (BoP, mil. USD) Source: World Bank Group

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Credit Ratings of SEE Countries Long Term Issuer Default Rating Country Ceiling for Foreign Currency Bonds - Long Term Credit rating outside cash Source: INVESTMENT COMPACT FOR SOUTH EAST EUROPE - REPORT OF ACTIVITIES Paris, France November 2007

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Transition in the Region Three periods of change: First stage : little scale privatization, cost, exchange and remote trade advancement Second stage : vast scale privatization, saving money, and non-bank monetary foundations Third stage : administration, rivalry, and base Source: EBRD Transition Report 2007

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Wide Variation in Reform Source: EBRD Transition Report 2007

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Strong Growth and Reforms, yet Deep Unhappiness Most individuals emphatically dedicated to vote based system yet decently to business sectors Widespread disappointment Upheaval in labor showcases Long-term unemployed Brain channel has genuine ramifications for the future Self utilized and talented more fulfilled, bolster markets Source: EBRD Transition Report 2007

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Most P eople P erceive R elative D ecline Source: EBRD Transition Report 2007

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Weaker Support for Markets, yet Positive Source: EBRD Transition Report 2007

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Good R esults Croatia and FYR of Macedonia are among the main 10 reformers in the World Bank \'s Doing Business Report for 2007 and Serbia bested this survey in 2006 Anti-debasement measures in the area are perceived and are bringing about SEE nations moving further up Transparency International\'s appraisals All the nations in the locale have figured out how to get the EU promotion train with SAA marking SEE is progressively seen as a decent goal for speculation

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Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey ERNST & YOUNG RESEARCH … April 2008 216 chiefs from around the globe were asked whether they locate a specific nation from Southeast Europe alluring for venture . 62% of chiefs were from Western Europe, 17% from North America, 9% from South e ast Europe, 5% from Asia, 4% from Central and East Europe and 3% from whatever is left of the world.

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Criteria utilized for reviewing: work expenses and aptitude level, household market, transport, logistic and media transmission foundation, personal satisfaction, straightforwardness and security, company charge rates, expense of area and related controls, adaptability of work controls, potential profitability increment, remote executives treatment, particular dialect and social capabillity . 67% chiefs discovered business environment significatively enhanced in the district in the previous 3 years . 43% of talked with executives communicated their interes to keep putting resources into the area . Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey

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SEE Survey Country R anking Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were excluded in a years ago overview while Moldova was. * Source: Croatian National Bank

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Attractiveness of the European Regions for Potential Investors Source: Ernst & Young Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey 2008 – 102 worldwide officials

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Costs and Productivity Drive Attractiveness Source: Ernst & Young Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey 2008 – 216 global administrators

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Labor Intensive Activities Dominate Source: Ernst & Young Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey 2008 – 216 universal administrators

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A Leading Destination for Shared Services Centers (SCC) Source: Ernst & Young Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey 2008 – 216 global officials

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Weaknesses in Quality and Infrastructure Source: Ernst & Young Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey 2008 – 216 universal officials

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Knowledge Based Activities Generate Low Interest Source: Ernst & Young Southeast Europe Attractiveness Survey 2008 – 216 worldwide officials

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Favorable Tax Regime Corporate Profit Tax Rates Montenegro 9% Serbia 10% Bulgaria 10% Romania 16% Hungary 16% Poland 19% Croatia 20% Czech Republic 21%

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Favorable Tax Regime Personal Income Tax Rates Bulgaria 10% Serbia 12% Montenegro 15% Romania 16% Hungary 18-36% Poland 19-40% Croatia 15-45% Slovenia 16-41%

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Accession to the European Union (EU) is a solid impulse, yet more should be possible to accomplish extensive arrangement change. Changes are not continuing at the same pace and some SEE nations still need to attempt further endeavors in setting up the essential legitimate and institutional system for key strategy measurements identified with venture. Arrangement irregularities send clashing signs to financial specialists. The crevice between the main reformers in the locale, and other SEE nations is augmenting. Time is running out for the area to accomplish its full speculation, development and business potential. Is Policy Reform Making a Difference to the Investment Environment in South East Europe? Source: Progress in Policy Reforms to enhance the Investment Climate in South East Europe - Investment Reform Index 2006

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THE REGION NEEDS BETTER: Policy consistency Public administration – administrative change, against debasement, rivalry Judiciary Title to land direction Investments in information Response on other monetary, social and security challenges

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THE REGION NEEDS MORE: Greenfield speculations Government\'s interests in framework Exports FDI – SME linkages Intraregional exchange and venture Energy effectiveness Renewable vitality

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Ministry of Economy and Regional Development of the Republic of Serbia www.merr.sr.gov.yu

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