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7. Global Warming, Uncertainty, Irreversibility & LongTerm Policymaking (SPRING 2006).


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7. Global Warming, Uncertainty, Irreversibility & LongTerm Policymaking (SPRING 2006) Larry D. Sanders Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State University INTRODUCTION (ch. 10 Hackett; other sources) Purpose:
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7. An unnatural weather change, Uncertainty, Irreversibility & LongTerm Policymaking (SPRING 2006) Larry D. Sanders Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State University

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INTRODUCTION (ch. 10 Hackett; different sources) Purpose: to wind up mindful of the idea of vulnerability & irreversibility concerning ecological & normal asset approaches Learning Objectives. To comprehend/get to be mindful of: 1. To comprehend vulnerability & irreversibility. 2. To get to be mindful of the issue of a worldwide temperature alteration. 3. To consider the approach alternatives regarding possibly irreversible activities/occasions, for example, worldwide warming. 4. To give normal asset directors instruments to apply to the environmental change issue

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Background on ideas Risk —the quantifiable likelihood of an occasion happening and the noteworthiness of the event's outcome (surge, future w/antagonistic conduct) Uncertainty - the probability that some occasion/activity will or won't happen is inconclusive or not quantifiable, maybe with conditions, for example, time span( (demise, species termination, terrorist assault) Irreversibility - proposes that some activity/occasion will change an asset to the degree it can't be come back to its unique state (or expense is restrictively high), constraining future choices clear-cutting a woodland; depleting a wetland; damming a waterway urbanizing previous farmland (blacktop, living arrangements, organizations)

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Risk Perceptions: may differ w/information, seriousness of result, whether singular decision . . . Obscure Risk An A : not detectable, obscure to uncovered, impact deferred, new hazard, hazard obscure to science Desire for regulation Nitrogen Fertilizers x Nitrites x RadioactiveWaste x Pesticides x Lead Paint x Caffeine DDT Minor Risk D x B Severe Risk X Global warming/environmental change Skate-boarding x Smoking D : controllable, not fear, not worldwide fiasco, not lethal, fair, individual, generally safe to future gen., effortlessly diminished, danger diminishing, deliberate x Nuclear War Rec. Drifting x Commercial Flying x Handguns B : wild, fear, worldwide disaster, deadly, not evenhanded, hello danger to future eras C : Observable, known not, impact prompt, old danger, danger known not C Known Risk Adapted from Carlson et al. Rural & Environmental Resource Economics , 1993; likewise Sanders

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Economic Questions for Natural Resource/Environment Managers Considering Climate Change What elements are inside of my capacity to control and oversee? Will hazard be protected? Could/ought to government act/mediate (& at what level; & would it be a good idea for it to be composed)? Will I appraise the scope of advantages and expenses, balanced for likelihood of event of practical scope of likely occasions? (consider supply & interest components) Is the drawback hazard irrelevant (and along these lines not deserving of private concern), or huge? Are there unexpected changes that could be made arrangements for and sensibly made if important?

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Case Study: Global Warming/Climate Change- - foundation Greenhouse gasses - carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorinated carbons Their capacity - channel sun oriented vitality, restricting infrared vitality emanated back into space Greenhouse impact - as nursery gas fixation expands, catching of infrared vitality increments, & temperatures are prone to rise

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Global Warming/Climate Change—background (cont) The shared view in the level headed discussion is that this is likely a characteristic and repetitive procedure The purposes of takeoff/contradiction: What does an unnatural weather change mean? Warming? How soon? How serious? More unpredictable variances in climate (warming, cooling, expanded frequency in & seriousness of tempests)? How soon? How serious? Is human movement declining the characteristic & repeating procedure? How noteworthy? How quick?

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"Global warming is 'the best trick ever executed on the American people.” Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla) The standard logical accord on an unnatural weather change is getting to be clearer consistently: changes in our atmosphere are genuine and they are in progress. Presently. . . . The proof that human-impelled an Earth-wide temperature boost is genuine is progressively clear and convincing. Union of Concerned Scientists The Debate over Global Warming

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The Debate over Global Warming “That a chose authority would call a dangerous atmospheric devation a ‘hoax’ verges on the criminal . . .” - Barry Lopez, nature author, 2005.

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Global Warming: Is it genuine? “Greenland's ice sheets are liquefying into the ocean twice as quick as already trusted, the consequence of a warming pattern that renders old forecasts of how rapidly Earth's seas will ascend throughout the following century, researchers said yesterday.” (17 Feb 06, The Washington Post)

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Global Warming: What Scientists Say “Most atmosphere researchers trust a noteworthy reason for Earth's warming atmosphere is expanded emanations of nursery gasses as an aftereffect of smoldering fossil energizes, to a great extent in the United States and other affluent, industrialized countries, for example, those of western Europe yet progressively in quickly creating countries, for example, China and India too. Carbon dioxide and a few different gasses trap the sun's warmth and raise air temperature.” (17 Feb 06, The Washington Post)

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Global Warming & Agriculture Possible advantages: Enhanced CO 2 absorption Longer developing seasons Increased precipitation Possible expenses: More continuous & serious dry seasons with warmth push Faster development, shorter developing periods, abbreviated lifecycle Sea-level ascent; expanded flooding & salinization Consequences Vol. 1, No. 2, Summer 1995, US Global Change Research Information Office.

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The Importance of Greenhouse Gasses Provides a trapping so as to sweep that “insulates the Earth warm, a considerable measure like sheets of glass in a nursery. . . ‘part of what makes the planet of work’. “Without nursery gasses, the Earth would be much excessively cool for solace . . . issue now is that people are thickening the sweeping . . . & . . . nature’s indoor regulator is pushed up.” - From cnn.com uncommon segment on an unnatural weather change article “Messing with the indoor regulator can be devastating”, Miles O’Obrien, November 27, 1997.

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Recent US Ag Situation identified with climate (since 1970s) Enhanced profitability, higher variability in product yields, costs, ranch pay Extreme climate occasions brought about serious harvest harm & monetary misfortune ($56 b. in ’88) Increased bug harm & pesticide utilization Ranges of a few harvest vermin extended Greater commonness of yield bugs

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Potential Impacts to Agriculture Increase in CO 2 expands water use effectiveness of plants, bringing about diminished water prerequisites & yield misfortune because of water anxiety Increasing worldwide temp diminishes rural generation 0.5-1.3%, bringing about expanded touching grounds and some increment in domesticated animals creation

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Potential Impacts to Agriculture Impacts geologically conveyed SE Asia crop generation down 2.6-4.8% Japan up 6.2-10.4% US crop creation fluctuates US ag wage down 10.9% US costs down 5.1% Increase in creepy crawlies, molds

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Potential Climate Change Effects on US Ag Expected temperature builds prone to speed development of yearly product plants, lessening yield potential; compelling howdy temps may bring about more serious yield misfortunes Increase in surges and dry seasons; variability of precipitation builds flimsiness, bringing about danger to harvests and animals and administration arranging more troublesome Higher temps and precipitation liable to build spread of irritations and sicknesses

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Potential Climate Change Effects on US Ag (cont) Increased product bugs liable to expand compound utilization, conceivably expanding wellbeing, natural & monetary dangers Increased frequency of weeds and obtrusive species, bringing about expanded concoction utilization and financial expense; perhaps expanding wellbeing, ecological & financial dangers Shift the scopes of ideal generation communities for particular harvests; could decrease US similar favorable position in ag wares for fare All of this happening in a more unstable political world, with conceivable military adventurism

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Direct impacts of expanding environmental CO 2 on horticulture generation NOTE: assessments in light of 225-ppmv increment in air convergence of CO 2 when connected to climatic & monetary conditions 1990 (ERS-USDA)

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Major Contributors to Greenhouse Gasses Per Capita Energy World CO 2 Country Emissions (%) Consumption (mil. Btu) Emission (%) US 19 335 23.8 China 10 13.6 Japan 5 171 5.0 Brazil 4 33 1.3 Germany 4 3.6 India 4 4.6 UK 2 169 2.4 Indonesia 2 1.0 Italy 2 1.8 Russia 6.7

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Sea level will rise 2-3 feet, covering numerous islands, changing coast lines & sullying water supplies Southern US atmosphere gets to be tropical changing ag generation Northern US atmosphere moderates, more like Southern US today Increase in warmth related passings/illnesses (intestinal sickness, dengue fever) Political emergencies, unpredictability could build Only 24% of open is concerned Models under-assessment complex worldwide biological system (can’t foresee 7 days out, a great deal less years) Models under-appraisal the “technological fix” & market financial aspects Doubtful that administration mediation will do anything other than make more quick issues Let the business sector & private property rights deal with the circumstance The Claims about Global Warming: “It’s Real” “Skeptical”

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ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FACTORS Epstein

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3 Av. temp. ov