A dangerous atmospheric devation.


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An Earth-wide temperature boost Will Human-Instigated Environmental Change Pulverize the World? By Rich Consider www.GodAndScience.org
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Slide 1

A worldwide temperature alteration Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World? By Rich Deem www.GodAndScience.org Note: This slideshow is NOT intended to be printed. View in slideshow mode simply because of broad forms and movements. Go to the site for a printable duplicate. Requires PowerPoint 2003 or PowerPoint Viewer 2003.

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Introduction Is the world getting hotter? Provided that this is true, are the activities of humanity to fault for earth’s temperature increments? What should/ought to be possible about these issues? Are the potential resolutions worth the expense to execute them?

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History of Earth’s Climate Earth shaped ~4.6 billion years back Originally extremely hot Sun’s vitality yield just 70% of present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years prior (zircon dating) Much of earth’s early history deleted amid late substantial siege (~3.9 billion years prior)

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History of Earth’s Climate Life showed up ~3.8 billion years prior Photosynthesis started 3.5-2.5 billion years prior Produced oxygen and evacuated carbon dioxide and methane (nursery gasses) Earth experienced times of cooling (“Snowball Earth”) and warming Earth started cycles of frosty and interglacial periods ~3 million years prior

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Sun Solar Energy Solar Energy Earth’s Temperature

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Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

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Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

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Sun Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Earth’s Temperature

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Sun Greenhouse Effect

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Nitrogen (N 2 ) Oxygen (O 2 ) Argon (Ar) Water (H 2 O) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Earth’s Atmospheric Gasses Non-Greenhouse Gasses >99% Greenhouse Gasses <1%

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Sun Venus Runaway Greenhouse Effect 97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric corrosive mists Temperature: 860°F

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Carbon Dioxide

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Carbon Dioxide Levels Muana Loa Readings CO 2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 CO 2 (ppm) 330 310 40 30 20 10 0 420 370 320 CO 2 (ppm) 270 220 Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core 170 600000 400000 200000 0 Time (YBP)

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Worldwide Carbon Emissions Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel 8 7 6 5 Carbon (10 9 metric tons) 4 3 2 1 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

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Annual Carbon Emissions Annual carbon discharges Atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 normal 8 6 Carbon (10 9 metric tons) 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year

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Future Carbon Dioxide Levels Increasing CO 2 emanations, particularly in China and creating nations Likely to twofold inside 150 years: Increased coal utilization Increased characteristic gas use Decreased petroleum use (expanded cost and diminishing supply)

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Kyoto Protocol Adopted in 1997 Cut CO 2 outflows by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic just, since cuts won\'t altogether effect an unnatural weather change

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Past Temperatures

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Recorded Worldwide Temperatures Decreasing Flat 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 D Mean Temperature (°C) 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

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Historic Los Angeles Temperatures Annual Temperatures Summer Temperatures Winter Temperatures 25 17 22 21 24 16 20 23 15 19 22 14 Temperature (°C) 18 21 13 17 20 12 16 19 11 15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

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2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980 - 4.1 - 4 - 2 - 1 - .5 - .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1 2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

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Past Temperatures Measurement Proxy – a system that approximates a specific estimation (e.g., temperature) Tree rings Ice centers Pollen records Plant macrofossils Sr/Ca isotope information Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)

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Temperature History of the Earth Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C hotter than today Cool/warm cycles happen ~1,500 years Affect for the most part Northeastern U.S. also, North Atlantic Mostly because of changes in thermohaline dissemination  Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline flow happened 8,200 years back as a vast lake in Canada overflowed the North Atlantic

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Main Ocean Currents Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

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Temperature History of the Earth For as far back as 3 million years, the earth has been encountering ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation took after by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods These atmosphere periods are to a great extent the aftereffect of cycles in the earth’s circle – precession, obliquity, and flightiness

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Orbital Parameters: Precession Perihelion Apehelion

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22.5 ° 24.5 ° Orbital Parameters: Obliquity

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Apehelion Perihelion Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005 Not proportional! To Scale!

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Precession (22 ky) Obliquity (41 ky) Eccentricity (100 ky) Temperature Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)

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Temperature History of the Earth For as far back as 3 million years, the earth has been encountering ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation took after by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods Last ice age started to defrost 15,000 years prior, yet was hindered by the “Younger Dryas” occasion 12,900 years back

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Younger Dryas Medieval Warm Ice Age Little Ice Age Younger Dryas Event - 25 0.35 - 30 0.30 - 35 0.25 Snow Accumulation (m/yr) - 40 0.20 Temperature (°C) - 45 0.15 - 50 0.10 - 55 0.05 20 15 10 5 0 Age (kya)

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Younger Dryas Event - 34 - 8.0 Younger Dryas - 35 - 7.5 - 36 - 7.0 - 37 - 6.5 - 38 - 39 - 6.0 d 18 O (Greenland) d 18 O (China) - 40 - 5.5 - 41 - 5.0 - 42 - 4.5 - 43 - 44 - 4.0 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Age (kya)

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Temperature History of the Earth Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2°C higher than today. 20°C higher at high scopes 1°C higher at the Equator Sea levels were 100 ft higher Causes CO 2 levels that were 100 ppm higher Increased thermohaline dissemination

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Temperature History of the Earth Eocene (41 million years back) Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). Expanded sea ebb and flow trade Strong worldwide cooling First lasting glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years prior

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Temperature History of the Earth Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C Causes Increased volcanism Rapid arrival of methane from the seas

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Temperature History of the Earth Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) Much hotter Breadfruit trees developed in Greenland Causes Different sea streams (mainland course of action) higher CO 2 levels (no less than 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)

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A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO 2 Records 6000 5000 4000 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration (ppmV) 3000 2000 1000 0 30 60 Continental Glaciation (Paleolatitude) 90 S D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng Paleozoic Mesozoic Cenozoic 400 300 200 100 0 Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580

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Recent Temperature Changes

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“Hockey Stick” Controversy 0.6 Direct temperature estimations Mann et al. 1999 0.4 0.2 0 Temperature Change ( °C) - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.6 - 0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

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The Problem with Tree Rings 0.3 Jones et al. 1998 Briffa et al. 1999 Mann et al. 1999 0.2 0.1 0 - 0.1 Temperature Change ( °C) - 0.2 - 0.3 - 0.4 - 0.5 - 0.6 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

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What Influences Tree Rings? Temperature Rainfall Carbon dioxide focus

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Is the Hockey Stick Correct? 2 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 1 0 Temperature Change ( °C) - 1 - 2 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

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Medieval Warm Period Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008 Is the Hockey Stick Correct? 0.4 0.2 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.4 Temperature Change (°C) - 0.6 - 0.8 - 1.0 - 1.2 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Year

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“2:1 shot of being right” “high level of confidence” U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Temperature Change ( °C) - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.6 - 0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Year

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Atmospheric Temperatures Troposphere Stratosphere 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 Temperature Cgange (°C) 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.6 - 1.0 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000 Year

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CO 2 Concentration Vs. Temperature 370 320 31 30 SST (°C) Tropical Pacific CO 2 (ppm) Antarctica 270 29 28 220 27 26 170 25 600000 400000 200000 0 Time (YBP)

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Consequences of Global Warming

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Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere Northern versus Southern Latitude Land versus Sea 1.0 Land Ocean Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Temperature Change (°C) 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.6 1920 1960 2000 1920 1960 2000 Year

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2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980 - 4.1 - 4 - 2 - 1 - .5 - .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1

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Ice Sheets Melting? Elegance (gravity measured by satellite) discovered liquefying of Antarctica proportional to ocean level ascent of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry) affirmed Antarctica dissolving Greenland ice softening on outside, aggregating inland (higher precipitation)

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Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro

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Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass 1000 800 600 400 200 Ice Mass (km 3 ) 0 - 200 - 400 - 600 2004 2003 2005 Year

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Rise in Sea Levels? Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr 2 If quickening proceeds, could bring about 12 in/century ocean level ascent

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