A dangerous atmospheric devation and Our Vitality Future.

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Oil shale or tar sands has weaken measures of overwhelming oil or close strong carbonaceous ... At present or expanded rates of generation, shoddy oil and common gas will be gone in 50 ...
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An Earth-wide temperature boost and Our Energy Future Dennis Silverman Physics and Astronomy U C Irvine www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/gwenergy.ppt

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Global Warming and Energy Questions How will countries react to Global Warming and vitality forecasts? This will figure out what the genuine nursery gas era will be. What is the timescale for the possible lack of oil and common gas? What will be the value ascends on energizes, and in what capacity will they input onto the era of nursery gasses? What will substitution fills and their expenses be? What will be the part of atomic plants and option vitality sources? In what manner will the expenses and duties for keeping down CO2 be surveyed broadly and universally? In what capacity will expenses of extreme separation and harms be weighed into anticipation and worldwide cost evaluations?

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I. Fate of Fossil Fuels Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Oil Shale and Tar Sands CO 2 Emissions

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U.S. 20 Year Projections of Energy Use in Quadrillions of BTUs (Quads)

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Petroleum Fuel Future The fossil fuel supply is required to take after a ringer formed bend as created by M. Ruler Hubbert. The top in the bend of yearly supply is the critical point. US oil generation topped around 1970. World populace development is normal at 1% a year. US vitality utilization is expanding at 1.5% a year. The US imports 60% of its oil. Demonstrated world oil stores are around 2,000 billion barrels. Doubtful stores may help this to 3,000-4,000 billion barrels. For world oil request developing in the reach between 0-2 percent a year, the anticipated crest is appeared in the following slide. (A lifetime here is 75 years.) The mean appraisal of the stores of the Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is 6 billion barrels (if the cost is more prominent than $25/barrel).

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Oil Growth and Decline (1,000 Bbl holds)

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US and World Natural Gas US request development is 3% every year. A deficiency now exists in the US and arrangements for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals for imports exist around the nation (Ventura, Long Beach, Baja California) The diagrams are for the time the supply will last. The units are in Quads (Quadrillion BTUs) The entire US vitality utilization in all structures is 100 Quads for each year.

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Total stores, with characteristic gas saves in equal billion barrels of Oil (bbl). World oil utilization is 30 bbl/year. Forgotten Canadian tar sands at 179 bbl oil. US has 22 bbl oil, and creates 2.0 bbl/year and would last just 11 years. World Oil and Natural Gas Reserves

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US Coal Supply The aggregate US coal store is 5700 Quads. The present rate of utilization is around 20 Quads for every year. Populace development will lessen its life span from 250 years at no development Conversion to engine fuel utilizes 2Quads of coal to create 1Quad of fuel in addition to the extra CO2 outflow. Transformation to hydrogen fuel utilizes significantly more. The chart expect 54% of underground coal is recoverable. Appraisals are for different development rates of utilization.

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US Coal Lifetime

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World Coal Reserves

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Dilute Fossil Residues Oil shale or tar sands has weaken measures of substantial oil or close strong carbonaceous deposits. Surface is mined at 2 tons for every barrel of oil. More profound stores are steam weakened and promote prepared to yield fuel, utilizing vitality, and costing CO2 creation. Expense is about $9/barrel before transportation. It likewise contains nitrogen and overwhelming metal mixes. The US has little. Overall evaluations are substantial however theoretical. 180 billion barrels worth in Canada. Hotspot for a few of the past charts is on the web in Physics Today, July 2004, by Paul B. Weisz.

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Fossil Fuel Future Summary Oil, Natural Gas, Shale Oil, and Coal produce CO 2. Carbon sequestration requires an additional 30% of force and needs look into. FutureGen $1 billion exploration plant. Oil is required for transportation fuel Too costly for power era Reserves: About 50 years with development being used 2/3 is in the Middle East Coal might be changed over to fluid fuel for transportation 250 years at current rate, 100 years with transformation Total world store of oil is an extensive inquiry, utilizes politically inspired appraisals of individual nations Current rate of utilization of fossil fills will expand overall U S proposed atmosphere innovation program

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Short Term Optimum The most ideal approach to hold down CO2 increments is to expel fossil energizes from power era, yet utilize it only for vehicles. Since ½ of US power originates from coal which creates twice as much CO2 per vitality unit as does regular gas, we ought to change to characteristic gas. This, notwithstanding, includes gigantic and potentially expensive imports. We require increments in interchange vitality sources, for example, hydro, atomic, wind and sunlight based. We likewise require increments in vitality proficiency and preservation. This particularly incorporates high mileage vehicles.

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Comparative Projected Vehicle Fuel Economies

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Cost of Gasoline and Taxes Elsewhere on the planet the expense of gas is around $1/liter, or $4/gallon. Gas charges per gallon in different nations: Great Britain $3.40 Italy $2.53 Germany $2.56 Japan $2.04 US Federal Excise Tax per gallon is $0.18 California Excise Tax is $0.18 Wisconsin is $0.31, Alaska is $0.08 California State and Local Taxes are $0.14 Total assessment in California is $0.50/gallon

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Comparative World CO2 Emissions

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II. Exchange Energy Sources Hydrogen Transmission Fusion Reactors Renewables: Hydroelectric Wind Power Solar Power Biomass, Ethanol Geothermal

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The Hydrogen Dream Hydrogen is a transmitter of vitality, not a source: Must utilize fossil fuel (making CO 2 ) or high temperature reactors or sunlight based or electrical energy to make H 2 - needs explore Need power module innovation change (current $3000/kw versus $30/kw for a gas motor). Power devices join 2H 2 with O 2 to make 2H 2 O. However power modules are 60% productive contrasted with 22% for gas and 45% for a diesel motor. Impetuses in power devices are costly and can be harmed by polluting influences.

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California Hydrogen Dreaming Need to set up a circulation framework on as extensive a scale concerning fuel California is building up a Hydrogen roadway of 200 stations for about $100 million Current expense of hydrogen is 4 times that of gas Compressed hydrogen tank has a scope of just 200 miles (50 for Arnold\'s Hummer demo) H 2 will presumably be put away in a littler volume atom like NaBH 4 Won\'t be down to earth for a long time Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy"

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Fusion Reactors Fusion most effortless for Deuteron (D) + Tritium(T): D(p,n) + T(p,nn) → 4 He(pp,nn) + n in a high temperature plasma. Substitution T made from Li cover around reactor n + 6 Li → 4 He + T Fusion reactors International ITER in 2012 for examination for 10 years, costing $5 billion Current stalemate over siting in France or Japan Followed by DEMO for a working plant, taking an additional 10 years. So not prepared for building units until no less than 2030. US Lithium supply would last a couple of hundred years. Still would be a radioactive waste transfer issue.

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International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)

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Renewable vitality sources Hydroelectric: exceptionally valuable At 30% – half of most extreme use Effects of dams Variable with season and atmosphere Wind power: Need high twist zones on shabby area 600 expansive turbines what might as well be called an atomic reactor Would require 30 straight miles Already picturesque dissents Many regions a long way from the force matrix Claimed as shoddy as common gas Waiting for Tax Credit law reestablishment Solar force: Good for direct warming Solar cell power all the more unreasonable by an element of 10 40 square miles proportionate to one atomic reactor

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Biomass, Ethanol, and Geothermal Biomass: Competes with homestead use for nourishment Insufficient for aggregate force by a component of 40 Gas is 30¢/pound: know of any sustenance that modest? 2,000 square miles likeness one atomic reactor Burns to methane and nitrous oxide, both nursery gasses Sea developing conceivable outcomes being investigated Ethanol: Political Issue for Rural (Red) States and ranges May be compelled to incorporate into fuel as antiknock preventer, however no pipelines or boats, so truck transportation expensive, and not required by the Blue States or urban areas Geothermal: Few destinations, for the most part in the west Produces Sulfur and substantial component contamination

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III. Overall Nuclear Power Provides 20% of world\'s power Provides 7% of world\'s vitality use which likewise incorporates warmth and transportation Cost is as of now like fossil powers Nuclear reactors have zero emanations of exhaust cloud or CO 2 There are 440 atomic force reactors in 31 nations. 30 more are under development. They deliver a sum of 351 gigawatts (billion watts) of power

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World Nuclear Power Plants

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Nuclear Electricity Production by Countries and Regions in Gigawatts (World Total 350 Gigawatts)

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US Nuclear Power In the US, 20% of our power is created by atomic force. There are 103 US atomic force plants .

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Soviet Nuclear Weapons to US Reactor Fuel We are purchasing exceptionally improved uranium (20% 235 U) from the previous Soviet Union\'s atomic weapons. The conveyance is more than 20 years from 1993—2013. We are changing over it to low improved uranium (3% 235 U) for reactor fuel. It will fulfill 9 years of US reactor fuel request. It originates from 6,855 Soviet atomic warheads.

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California related reactors Diablo Canyon, two reactors San Onofre, two reactors ⅓ of Palo Verde 1, 2, & 3 in Arizona

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California Nuclear Energy Each 1,100 megawatt reactor can control one million homes. Every reactor\'s generation is comparable to 15 million barrels of oil or 3.5 million tons of coal a year. The aggregate 5,500 mega

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