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Global Warming Prediction.


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Global Warming Prediction L. David Roper Professor Emeritus of Physics Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ. roperld@vt.edu http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid http://www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingPrediction.htm
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Slide 1

A worldwide temperature alteration Prediction L. David Roper Professor Emeritus of Physics Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ. roperld@vt.edu http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid http://www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingPrediction.htm Global Warming and Peak Oil may be the best difficulties that people have experienced in the most recent 10,000 years.

Slide 2

Global Warming Prediction It is imperative to represent fossil-energizes exhaustion when figuring Global Warming expectations. Else, it may be accepted that more carbon can be put into the climate from smoldering fossil energizes than physically conceivable. Computing fossil-energizes consumption is not correct, but rather can be assessed sensibly well.

Slide 3

Fossil Fuels Global Warming Fit exhaustion bends to extraction information for coal, raw petroleum and normal gas utilizing disclosures information and stores gauges. Ascertain the carbon radiated because of smoldering fossil energizes and the CO 2 focus in the air, representing living arrangement time. Ascertain the Earth temperature because of the CO 2 in the air, including time slack. Consider activating of different impacts that raise temperature, including temperature inputs that expand CO 2 fixation.

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Verhulst Function for assets exhaustion. Q  = a mount effectively removed + sum left to be extricated = aggregate sum to be separated n ≠ 1 permits asymmetry. Verhulst Function: A topsy-turvy crested bend.

Slide 5

Oil disclosures won't permit higher normal extraction. Top Oil Skewed toward later times.

Slide 6

You can’t extricate it in the event that you have not found it! Territories under both bends are the same. That is, the sum found equivalents the sum separated. revelations extraction The territories under the two bends are the same: ~2x10 12 barrels .

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Gas disclosures won't permit higher normal extraction. Top Gas Skewed toward later times.

Slide 8

You can’t separate it in the event that you have not found it! Ranges under both bends are the same. That is, the sum found equivalents the sum separated. disclosures The territories under the two bends are the same: ~8x10 15 cu. ft.

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Peaks between 2060 & 2100 Double known coal. Impossible! Known existent coal (EIA)

Slide 10

Factors and Assumptions Coal = half carbon, short ton = 0.907 tons Crude oil = 84% carbon, bbl = 0.136 tons Natural gas = 76% carbon, tcf = 0.0189 tons CO 2 focus in ppmv = 0.47 x gigatonnes carbon transmitted (may increment with high fixation; i.e., may be nonlinear; see later) Climate affectability = 3°C for multiplying CO 2 25% of fossil powers are utilized to make helpful materials or are lost as opposed to being blazed. Foundation year 1700 CO 2 fixation = 280 ppmv

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20% left following 250 years 10% left following 2000 years 6% left following 10,000 years

Slide 12

Equation for CO 2 left in nth year for emanations in every single earlier year.

Slide 13

Coal CO 2 emanations and CO 2 focus commitment. Shift in ppmv is because of CO 2 home time.

Slide 14

Crude-oil CO 2 discharges and CO 2 focus commitment. Shift in ppmv is because of CO 2 habitation time.

Slide 15

Natural-Gas CO 2 discharges and CO 2 focus commitment. Shift in ppmv is because of CO 2 living arrangement time.

Slide 16

Fossil-Fuels CO 2 emanations and CO 2 fixation commitment.

Slide 17

CO 2 fixation because of Fossil-Fuels blazing Peaks at around 2110.

Slide 18

CO 2 focus because of Fossil-Fuels blazing + foundation Below measured information, as it ought to be.

Slide 19

Non-Fossil-Fuels CO 2 Emissions Deforestation Soil exhaustion Cement generation Domestic creatures Assume that non-fossil-powers CO 2 focus is relative to fixation because of blazing fossil fills.

Slide 20

Fit of CO 2 Concentration Data to Fossil-Fuels Emissions NFF=14% of FF Pre-fossil-energizes industrialization

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CO 2 focus because of Fossil-Fuels blazing + Non-fossil-powers sources; last expected relative to fossil-fills fixation .

Slide 22

CO 2 focus because of Fossil-Fuels blazing + Non-fossil-powers + foundation 465 ppmv It crests at around 2100 as opposed to ascending into the following century the same number of expect. Carbon-dioxide focus because of smoldering fossil energizes with non-fossil powers outflows, expecting that no Earth states are activated.

Slide 23

Climate Sensitivity (s) Earth normal barometrical temperature ascend because of multiplying the carbon-dioxide focus in the air. Represents quick criticisms, for example, ice liquefying. The normal speaks the truth 3 degrees Celsius . It must be connected every year utilizing the carbon-dioxide fixation for that year. C 0 =concentration for reference year (1700) .

Slide 24

Climate-Response Function There is a period slack for the air temperature after carbon emanations. Because of vitality consumed and discharged later in basically the seas, additionally in ice. Attack of two hyperbolic digressions to the information. Information blunders are substantial.

Slide 25

Climate-Response Function The atmosphere affectability capacity is increased by a progression of two hyperbolic digressions: Temperature slack is because of vitality assimilated and discharged later in basically the seas, additionally in ice.

Slide 26

1.3 degrees C Although the temperature is not to a great degree high, it stays nearby for quite a while. Near the current measured quality. Does not represent vacillations because of worldwide darkening.

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Why such a high projection?! Catastrophe district! Top in this count. Ice age to current interglacial speaks the truth 8 degrees C in Antarctica and about a large portion of that in the calm areas. 8°C Temperature & CO 2 are commonly fortifying (positive input).

Slide 28

Assume carbon sequestration or a coal-smoldering ban. Presumably idealistic!

Slide 29

Assume carbon sequestration or a coal-blazing ban. Coal

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CO 2 is fairly diminished via carbon sequestration or a coal-blazing ban. 430 ppmv; lessened from 465

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Temperature is to some degree decreased via carbon sequestration or a coal-smoldering ban. 1.1 degrees C; diminished from 1.3 Will we have held up past the point of no return?!

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Double the coal removed. Coal

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CO 2 focus because of multiplied coal extraction 490 ppmv

Slide 34

Temperature is expanded because of multiplied coal extraction. 1.65 degrees C Instead of 1.3

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Temperatures for a cases' portion viewed as Double Coal Moratorium or Carbon Sequestration Assumes that there is no activating of Earth states .

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!Some Nightmares! Assume fixation/discharges variable changes with expanding focus from 0.47 to 0.94 (area and sea get to be immersed with CO 2 ). Assume permafrosted tundra arrival of carbon amid the following century (sample of temperature input). Assume atmosphere affectability changes from 3 to 4 throughout the following two centuries. (It is realized that it changes to 6 over centuries on account of moderate criticisms.)

Slide 37

Suppose fixation/emanations variable changes with focus from 0.47 to 0.94 (multiplied). 820 ppmv Assumes hyperbolic-digression change with 450 ppmv break point and 50 ppmv width. Catastrophe Region! Because of area and seas being soaked with carbon dioxide.

Slide 38

Suppose discharges/fixation Factor changes with focus from 0.47 to 0.94 (multiplied). 2.7 degrees C Dangerously high temperatures

Slide 39

Assume permafrosted tundra arrival of carbon. Absolute 400 gigatonnes Example of temperature input; there are other temperature criticisms.

Slide 40

CO 2 focus because of permafrosted tundra arrival of carbon

Slide 41

Total CO 2 fixation including permafrosted tundra arrival of carbon 555 ppmv Disaster Region!

Slide 42

Temperature including permafrosted tundra arrival of carbon . 1.8 degrees C Disaster Region!

Slide 43

Worst case CO2 fixation 1110 ppmv !Calamitous! Undoubtedly fossil-powers consumption, CO 2 criticism & carbon discharge in Arctic

Slide 44

Worst case temperature Will bring about ghastly disasters for human life. (See Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas.) 4.5 degrees C for atmosphere affectability change to 4 3.5 degrees C for atmosphere affectability = 3 Approximately the same temperature change between the last chilly most extreme and now!

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Temperatures for a cases' percentage viewed as Double Coal Moratorium or Carbon Sequestration !Could a coal ban keep those sad Earth states from activating?!

Slide 46

Fossil Fuels Burning Reduction Reduces temperature underneath now, which may keep from activating carbon discharges and other temperature-raising inputs.

Slide 47

Conclusions Peaking fossil powers keeps CO 2 focus from going greatly high, unless it triggers different impacts . Since temperature ascent of around 0.8°C from 18 th century is as of now bringing about unfortunate occasions, the proceeding with expansion of another 1°C or more will bring about significantly more debacles and may other Earth changes that will bring about a higher temperature. The cresting of fossil fills may be as substantial quick fiasco as is a dangerous atmospheric devation.

Slide 48

World Population Projections Population with renewable vitality Fit of populace to accessible fossil-powers vitality 1950-2006. Populace without renewable vitality

Slide 49

Next Major Ice Age with Global Warming Effect Accounting for case that Earth normal temperature changes speak the truth half Antarctica normal temperature changes.

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This address is on the Internet, alongside other related addresses: http://www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingPrediction.ppt http://www.roperld.com/science/energy.ppt (Future Energy) http://www.roperld.com/science/energyGWNMIA.ppt (Energy, Global Warming and the Next Major Ice Age) .:tslid