A demographic point of view to comprehend richness boundaries of Hong Kong.

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An examination of Total fruitfulness rate (the number infants destined to a lady over the kid bearing period) ... Absolute conjugal ripeness rates by period of marriage in Hong Kong, 1981 ...
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A demographic viewpoint to comprehend richness obstructions of Hong Kong Paul Yip Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong

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Outlines A diagram of the populace and marriage dispersion An examination of Total fruitfulness rate (the number children destined to a lady over the tyke bearing period) Opportunities and difficulties

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Population size of Hong Kong SAR

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Number of births and TFRs of HK, 1961 - 2004

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Net nuptiality (female), Hong Kong, 1981 and 2001

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Age-particular ripeness rates of Hong Kong, 1971-2004

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Percentage conveyance of live births by request of live birth, 1981-2003

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Total conjugal richness rates The TMFR relies on upon time of marriage Overall, the TMFR has additionally diminished for as far back as 2 decades In 2001, the TMFR for inhabitant ladies was around 2 (near the substitution level), given that they got hitched at 20 However, the figure would therapist to 1.6 on the off chance that they got hitched at 25

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Marriage age deferment

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Marriage crush wonder in Hong Kong (1)

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Assuming the 2001 marriage design wins, it is anticipated that around 29.7% of guys and 24% of female would stay single when they achieve 40

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Marriage press marvel in Hong Kong (2)

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Total conjugal ripeness rates by time of marriage in Hong Kong, 1981 - 2001

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Total conjugal fruitfulness rates of Hong Kong by time of getting hitched, 2001

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Live births of Hong Kong by living arrangement of guardians, 1991 - 2004

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Proportions of live births in Hong Kong by habitation of guardians, 1991 – 2004

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Number of live births in Hong Kong by living arrangement of moms, 1981 - 2003

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Reasons for decrease of TFR Reduction on conjugal fruitfulness rate Increase in the quantity of spinsterhood Late marriage (middle age on first marriage: 30 guys and 27 females) Imbalance of the free market activity (lone wolves versus old maids) around 90,000 of ladies (age 20-44) dwarfs men (25-49)

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WHY? A study on Barriers to Fertility for wedded couples Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study by the Family Planning Association A comparative study entitled "Obstructions on Fertility" Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002) The three noteworthy concerns: 1. Unfavorable Economic condition 2. Unsuitably Education administration 3. Singular inclination.

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Number of spinsterhood is expanding

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Proportion of ever hitched people

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Fertility Do we have an issue? Yes! Is it a beat issue? No!

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Speed and Magnitude of the decrease of the Fertility It is the rate and the extent of the diminishment of the fruitfulness rate,

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What would we be able to gain from the abroad nations Different measures have been executed in numerous nations which have encountered low ripeness (i.e. Australia, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and USA) that restrain ripeness decay . Is it true that they are important in Hong Kong?

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Total ripeness rates of Hong Kong and chose low fruitfulness economies, 1995 – 2002

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Window closes prior when the age truncating for aggregate reliance proportion changed Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

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The difficulties: Quantity versus Quality How to return the low richness: Replacement Migration: Healthy Population:

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Low fruitfulness About 60% lessening is because of progress of conjugal dispersion as opposed to the diminishment of conjugal richness rate Promoting ripeness: CS recommended to have three. Because of the late marriage, they won\'t not have the capacity to get up to speed (1 st request of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8 in 2003) Engage the babies from Mainland conceived moms in Hong Kong. (Obviously, take care of the basic staff issue first)

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Replacement relocation About more than 80% of the populace development from movement. The new comers revive and infuse fresh recruits into the group. They are not coming (38100 one-way allow holders in 2004). Sway on the work power: deferment of the retirement age. Fruitful involvement in Shanghai around 30% are recently vagrants

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Population pyramid of Hong Kong 1976, 2003 and 2033

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Replacement Migration: moderate down maturing

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Healthy Population Life-long wellbeing advancement and practice Healthy way of life. Counteractive action: to avoid superfluous wellbeing cost: for instance, smoking and endeavored or finished suicides

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To evacuate the snags for getting hitched and bearing infants Economic and Financial effect is a genuine concern. A people group agreement is required. What amount the group will pay for it? A higher expense?

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Discussions Social Responsibility and Individual decision? Somebody needs to pay for it. No free lunch!

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Time to Act Now Analogy of a clock: Second arm (legislative issues) Minute arm (financial strategy) Hour arm (demography approach)

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Thank you

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