A worldwide temperature alteration AND Protection.

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A dangerous atmospheric devation AND Protection. A Get-together Tempest or Simply "Hot Air" Exhibited by: Rodney J. Taylor, J.D., P.E., CPCU, CLU, ARM Overseeing Executive Aon Natural Danger Administrations November 8, 2007. An unnatural weather change Characterized.
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An unnatural weather change AND INSURANCE A Gathering Storm or Just “Hot Air” Presented by: Rodney J. Taylor, J.D., P.E., CPCU, CLU, ARM Managing Director Aon Environmental Risk Services November 8, 2007

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Global Warming Defined “ Global Warming alludes to the increment in the normal temperature of the Earth’s close surface air and seas in late decades and its anticipated continuance” Temperatures rose 0.74 º C ( 1.33 º F) amid the most recent 100 years IPCC finished up: “Most of the watched increase…since the mid-20 th century is likely due to…anthropogenic nursery gas concentrations.”

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Greenhouse Effect Naturally happening nursery gasses build Earth’s temperatures 33 º C (59⺠F) Without GHG, Earth would be dreadful Major GHGs: Water Vapor (Avg. 54%) Carbon Dioxide (18%) Methane (7%) Ozone (6%) Increases in fixations since 1750: CO 2 - 31% Methane – 149%

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Global Warming (1850 to 2007) The year 2006 was 6th hottest year on record, surpassed by 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002 and 2004 Source: Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met. Office Hadley Center Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones, 2006

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Concentrations of CO 2 in the Atmosphere

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CO 2 Concentrations and Temperature Change

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Concentrations of CO 2 Are Expected to Increase Present - 383 ppm Much higher than at whatever time amid most recent 650,000 years Fossil energizes = ¾ of the increment in recent years Future rate of progress will rely on upon monetary, sociological, innovative and common advancements IPCC models foresee centralizations of 541 ppm to 970 ppm by the year 2100 Resulting temperature changes of 1.1 º C to 6.4⺠C (2.0⺠F to 11.5⺠F) by the year 2100

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Projected Temperature Increase by Year 2100

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Global Warming & Risk Management Concerns with respect to Global Warming include: Melting of ice sheets/polar ice Rising sea levels More extreme typhoons/sea tempests Changes in precipitation Draft More serious woodland flames Heat related passings and infections Tipping Point – Point where harm is irreversible and/or rate of progress quickens

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Global Warming & Risk Management

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Run-Off from Glacier Melt in Greenland

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Change in Thickness of Glaciers (1955 to 2005)

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Rising Sea Levels Due to Global Warming Sea levels are up 130 meters (400 ft.) since the last ice age (18,000 years back) Most happened 6000 years prior Last 3000 years, ocean levels were about steady Since 1900 – ascending at 0.15 mm/yr. Since 1993 – ascending at ten times that rate (1.5 mm/yr.) Global Warming contributes ascend in two courses: Expansion of ocean water as the seas warm Melting of ice over area

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Changes in Sea Levels (1880 to 2005)

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Estimated Sea Level Changes by Year 2100 IPCC Models 110 mm to 770 mm (4.34 in. to 30.34 in.) May be modified by: Melting ice sheets/polar ice Thawing of permafrost Impacts of ocean level ascents: Coastal disintegration Higher tempest surge Flooding and seaside immersion Impacts to groundwater Loss of wetlands and environment 634 million individuals live at levels of 30 feet or less above ocean level Also home of 70% of the world’s biggest urban areas

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Results of Sea Level Rise are Already Apparent Scenes like this are basic from the Pacific to Antarctica

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Results of Sea Level Rise are Already Apparent Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Built in 1797 Rebuilt 1870 Moved 2780 ft. inland in 1999

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Shortage of water influencing >2 billion individuals Causes: Natural powers Over-utilization Inefficient horticulture Agricultural & mechanical contamination Lack of water treatment offices (90% of the world dumps untreated sewage and modern waste in waterways and streams Exacerbating variables: Rapid industrialization in India and China Worldwide Drought Conditions

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Worldwide Drought Conditions Ship Stranded in Bed of Former Aral Sea in Uzbekistan

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Worldwide Shortage of Usable Water Industrial Growth is Changing China and Adding to the Water Shortage

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Changes in Patterns of Precipitation With Global Warming not all regions will experience water deficiencies Some districts will have more rain Hurricanes and typhoons will bring about all the more flooding and harm Earlier snow liquefy and lighter winter snow pack will change measures of water in numerous zones Coupled with an abatement in the dampness substance of soils

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Changes in Patterns of Precipitation

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Changes in Patterns of Precipitation

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Changes in Weather Coupled with Changes in Demographics (U.S.) 53% of populace live in seaside ranges (17% of area territory) 23 of the 25 most thickly populated regions are beach front Since 1960, waterfront populaces have expanded by 150% Coastal qualities surpass half of aggregate qualities in numerous states Florida – 80% New York – 65% Connecticut – 62% Growth in waterfront qualities is quickening

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3 rd most crowded state Population development is twice that of most different states Florida’s populace: 2007 – 18 million 2030 – 28 million Insured qualities: 1988 - $566 billion 2007 - $2.4 trillion 2014 - $5.0 trillion (anticipated) Example - Florida

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Commercial Property Values in Coastal Areas

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Why Should Risk Managers Care? On the off chance that individuals cause Global Warming - People can stop it If educated - Some individuals will diminish their effect: Carbon foot shaped impression Energy utilization Water utilization Recycling If deliberate measures not powerful – Legislation will be gone to direct exercises If somebody is at shortcoming – They will pay

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Changes in the Number of Catastrophic Events

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Changes in the Costs of Catastrophic Losses

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Global Warming & Risk Management Estimated expenses of Global Warming : 1 meter ascent in ocean level - $600 billion to $900 billion Doubling CO 2 in the environment – $27 billion increment in windstorm tempest harm every year 65% expansion more than 2006 levels $175 billion increment in surge harm yearly 70% increment more than 2006 levels) Stern Report - $9 trillion harm because of Global Warming on an overall premise Cost to turn around harm – 1.5% of GNP yearly

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Global Warming & Risk Management Insurers’ responses to Global Warming : Most ebb and flow changes include Property Insurance Changes include: Rate changes in regions subject to more serious dangers Limiting the quantity of approaches issued in high-hazard regions Withdrawal from business sectors

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Global Warming & Risk Management Risks have been exchanged to insureds or government protection projects Rate extra charges evaluated by safety net providers for windstorm Forces others to finance insureds in high-chance regions State projects have been actualized to safeguard protection Federal projects give the main scope accessible to a few dangers (e.g., surge protection) There is a momentum push to add windstorm harm to the National Flood Insurance Program

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National Flood Insurance Program Statistics For 2005: Loss installments totaled $13.1 billion Annual premium gathered was $2.2 billion Average surge case was $87,512 Up from $39,094 in 2004.

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Global Warming & Risk Management Future Global Warming Risk Issues : Utilities that discharge CO 2 into the environment may be accused of the expenses of tempest harms Oil organizations may be approached to pay for seawalls to keep harm from rising seas Automobile producers may be requested that pay real damage claims because of higher temperatures Foreign substances may sue U.S. producers for harm to assets anyplace on the planet

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Global Warming & Risk Management – Legal Issues Global Warming cases to date have taken two structures: Challenge to Regulatory Inaction – Claims against government offices to require corporate elements to lessen their discharges Target Corporate Defendants – Claimants, including administrative substances, look for decisive and injunctive alleviation against emitters in light of normal law annoyance speculations

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Global Warming & Risk Management – Legal Issues Massachusetts v. EPA - Type 1 Claim October 20, 1999 - Environmental gatherings requested of the U.S. EPA to manage nursery gas emanations from new engine vehicles Petition was denied by the EPA 12 states, 3 urban communities, 2 domains and many natural gatherings asked the U.S. Court of Appeals to run on the EPA’s choice not to manage From disavowal, case was engaged the U.S. Preeminent Court

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Global Warming & Risk Management – Legal Issues September, 2007 - The U.S. Incomparable Court: (1) requested the EPA to conform to its order to direct emanations of air contaminations from new autos; and (2) verified that nursery gasses are “pollutants” subject to the Act Could bring about the use of Pollution Exclusions in obligation approaches to cases charging discharges of nursery gasses While the decision is tight, its suggestions are expansive Expect the EPA to now take a gander at regulation of outflows of CO 2 from settled sources and additionally cars Question : Is CO 2 the sort of Pollution the risk guarantors planned to bar?

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Global Warming & Risk Management – Legal Issues California v. General Motors Corp., et al.   - Type 2 Claim CA A.G. sued automakers, charging vehicles’ emanations added to Global Warming Alleged damages included: Reduced snow-pack Loss of new water sources Rising ocean levels Salt water attack in aquifers Erosion of shorelines Increased ozone contamination Heightened danger of out of control fires Increased flooding Health consequences

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