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AJ McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University Canberra.


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Global Warming and Climate Change: Why the Health Sector Should be Engaged SEARO Office, New Delhi, March 2008 AJ McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University Canberra Should the Health Sector Engage?
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An unnatural weather change and Climate Change: Why the Health Sector Should be Engaged SEARO Office, New Delhi, March 2008 AJ McMichael National Center for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University Canberra

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Should the Health Sector Engage? Wellbeing dangers are genuine … and are expanding. Amazing climate occasions prone to increment: Could overpower wellbeing sector’s limit. CC endangers other continuous wellbeing additions – esp. in low-salary/powerless populaces (e.g. Thousand years Devt Goals; HIV/AIDS pandemic; and so on.) 4. Health part has, by and large, been moderate to perceive and react to chance. Therefore: Inadequate limit building (exploration, anticipation, arrangement) Deficient contact/engagement with different segments 5. Society has been moderate to comprehend that danger to wellbeing is the most genuine, basic, hazard. Populace wellbeing is extreme marker of ‘sustainability’

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Climate Change: Health Impacts and Policy Responses Adaptation : Reduce sways Natural procedures and forcings Global Environmental Changes, influencing: Climate Water Food yields Other materials Physical envtl. wellbeing Microbial examples Cultural resources Impacts on human culture: jobs financial efficiency social strength wellbeing Human weight on environment Human culture: society, organizations monetary action demography Feedback Mitigation : Reduce weight on environment

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Overview of Recent CC Science Together, the reported GCM model keeps running for the 6 IPCC outflows situations gauge, for 2100, increments in temperature (focal assessment per situation) of 1.4-5.8 o C. A large portion of the instability reflects mysterious human fates (the situations); the rest is because of model vulnerabilities. A further ~0.7 o C is ‘committed’ (on top of the 0.6 o C effectively acknowledged) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) as of now looks preservationist. Late studies show quickening change. Political talk in high-pay nations is presently beginning to recognize requirement for 80+% lessening in emanations relative 2000.

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CO 2 Concentration Av Surface Temp Sea Level Rise (cm) Climate Change: Faster than anticipated in 1990s Solid lines = watched IPCC 4 (2007) was constrained to science distributed by mid 2006 Subsequent exploration shows expanding rates of: Global GHG outflows 3.3% p.a. in 2000s, versus 1.3% p.a. in 1990s Temperature rise particularly in polar locales Ice melt (Arctic: 40% misfortune since 1980, quickening 2006-07) Sea-level ascent Dashed lines = 1990s projections Rahmstorf, Church, et al., Science 2007 1975 1985 1995 2005

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WkGp2 Report (2007): Some Key Findings Water: 75-250m Africans may face water-deficiency by 2020. Yields: Rain-sustained horticulture could decay by half in some African nations by 2020. Harvest yields could: increase by 20% in a few sections of Southeast Asia … however decrease by up to 30% in Central/South Asia. Icy masses and snow spread: Expected to decay, decreasing supply of melt water to real locales, urban areas. Species: 20-30% of all plant and creature species face expanded danger of eradication if 1.5-2.5 o C rise.* Scientific writing survey of >29,000 investigations of physical and organic changes in regular world: 89% steady with going with warming .

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Excerpt from UNDP Press Release, Nov 27

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Indirect effects Direct wellbeing effects (heat, amazing occasions, and so forth.) Human Health: Injuries/passings Thermal anxiety Infectious maladies Malnutrition Mental anxieties Conflict, drugs, and so forth. Environmental Change & Health Physical frameworks (ice, streams, and so on.) e.g. prime center of Stern Report (UK, 2006) Economy: base, yield, development Climate Change Impacts Food yields Biological & occasional cycles Wealth (and dissemination); nearby environment; and so forth

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Cartogram: Emissions of nursery gases Density-equalling cartogram. Nations scaled by discharges in billion tons carbon equal in 2002. Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007

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Cartogram: (Selected) wellbeing effects of environmental change Malnutrition > the runs > intestinal sickness > surges Density-equalling cartogram: Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007. WHO locales scaled by mortality (per million individuals) in the year 2000. Taking into account weight of-ailment attribution to the environmental change that happened from 1970s to 2000 (McMichael et al., 2003).

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Health Impacts Summary: IPCC AR4 (2007) (IPCC, 2007)

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Health Impacts: Examples Thermal anxiety (esp. warmth waves) Diarrhoeal illness Vector-borne irresistible malady Dengue fever Food yields: sustenance, youngster improvement Disasters: harm, separation, uprooting

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Heatwave: August 2003 Land surface temperatures, summer of 2003, versus summers of 2000-04. NASA satellite spectrometry 35,000-50,000 additional passings over a 2-week period

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Seasonal variety in every day mortality design, Delhi, 1991-94 60 40 Daily passings 20 0 1jan,1991 1jan,1993 1jan,1995

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Heat-related mortality, Delhi, 1991-94: Generalized added substance model, with cubic-spline smoothing Relative mortality (% of day by day normal) 140 120 100 Uncertainty range: 95% CI 80 0 10 20 30 40 Daily mean temperature ( o C) McMichael et al, ISOTHURM Study

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Diagram of Typical Influence of Seasonal Rainfall, Surface Water, and Crowding on Cholera Occurrence, Madras area Based on Ruiz-Moreno, Pascual, Bouma, et al, EcoHealth 2007; 4: 52-62. Investigation of 26 regions, Madras Presidency, south-east India, 1901-1940. R o = ‘reproductive number’ R o essential (water-borne) transmission R o optional (human-to-human) transmission human swarming impact water weakening impact 1.0 Flood Shallow Water Depth

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Domestic bamboo shaft holders Found in p ublic lodging domains KT Goh, Singapore Ministry of Health

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Dengue’s foremost vector: Aedes aegypti Principal vector is female Aedes aegypti mosquito. Tainted mosquito stays infective forever. Indonesia: reported dengue cases multiplied in 2007 versus 2005.

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Effects of Temperature Rise on Dengue Transmission Shorten viral hatching period in mosquito Shorten rearing cycle of mosquito Increase recurrence of mosquito nourishing More productive transmission of dengue infection from mosquito to human

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Global Dengue Epidemiology 1960s Thousand-fold increment in reported rate 1990s Dengue fever just DHF/DSS Dengue007/CMH/260302

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1990 2085 Estimated territorial likelihood of dengue event under medium environmental change situation: 2085 versus 1990 Using measurable mathematical statement got from perceptions of late dissemination of illness in connection to meterological variables Source: Hales et al. Lancet , 2002. http://image.thelancet.com/additional items/01art11175web.pdf Probability

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Schistosomiasis : Northwards augmentation of potential transmission (constrained by ‘freezing zone’), in Jiangsu region, because of ascend in normal January temperature since 1960 Freezing zone 1970-2000 Temperature change from 1960s to 1990s 0.6-1.2 o C 1.2-1.8 o C Freezing zone 1960-1990 Baima lake Hongze lake arranged Sth-to-Nth water trench Yang et al, 2005: Increase in reported rate of schistosomiasis over past decade. May reflect late warming? Northwards augmentation of “freeze line” (which restrains survival of water snails) puts 21 million additional individuals at danger. Yangtze River Shanghai

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Now 2030: + 0.9 o C 2050: + 1.6 o C Zhou X-N, Yang G-J, et al. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis Transmission in China “Recent information propose that schisto-somiasis is re-developing in a few settings that had beforehand come to the [successful malady control] criteria of either transmission control or transmission intrusion. …. Alongside different reasons, environmental change and ecologic changes have been proposed as the basic causes.”

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Climate Change & Malaria (potential transmission) in Zimbabwe Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Harare Ebi et al., 2005

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Climate Change & Malaria (potential transmission) in Zimbabwe Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Ebi et al., 2005

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Climate Change & Malaria (potential transmission) in Zimbabwe Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Ebi et al., 2005

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General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis 100% Photo-engineered action 2 o C  2 o C  0% 20 o C 30 o C 40 o C Field & D Lobell. Natural Research Letters, 2007: A 1 o C increment lessens worldwide oat grain product yields by 6-10%. In this way, an ascent of 2 o C could mean 12-20% fall in worldwide generation. [Note: this appraisal is higher than most others.]

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Climate change sways on downpour bolstered oat generation, 2080 (IIASA: Fischer et al, 2001)

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Vietnam Bangladesh Population

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Climate Change: Health Impacts and Policy Responses Adaptation : Reduce sways Natural procedures and forcings Global Environmental Changes, influencing: Climate Water Food yields Other materials Physical envtl. wellbeing Microbial examples Cultural resources Impacts on human culture: jobs monetary efficiency social steadiness wellbeing Human weight on environment Human culture: society, establishments financial movement demography Feedback Mitigation : Reduce weight on environment

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CC and Health: Main Types of Adaptive Strategies Public training and mindfulness Early-ready frameworks: heatwaves, other looming climate extremes, irresistible illness episodes Community-based neighborhood bolster/watch plans Climate-sealed lodging configuration, and ‘cooler’ urban format