Alleviating Natural Outflows from the Urban Transport Framework.


68 views
Uploaded on:
Description
Manila: CNG transports, alco-diesel transports and (coconut methyl ester) CME transports ... Alco-diesel transport, alco-diesel trucks and autos with exhaust systems would be ...
Transcripts
Slide 1

Alleviating Environmental Emissions from the Urban Transport System Ram M. Shrestha S.C. Bhattacharya Nazrul Islam N. T. Kim Oanh Asian Regional Research Program in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC) Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 2

Cities Covered COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 3

City Profile COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 4

ERI IGIDR ITB AIT SATMP DOSTE Project Network AIT — Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand DOSTE – Department of Science, Technology and Environment, Vietnam Prof. Nguyen Thien Nhan ERI — Energy Research Institute, China Dr. Zhou Dadi IGIDR — Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research Prof. Jyoti Parikh ITB — Institut Technologi Bandung, Indonesia Dr. Tatang H. Soerawidjaja SATMP — Society for the Advancement of Technology in the Philippines, Philippines Dr. Satisfaction V. Abrenica COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 5

Study Objectives To examine the interest for urban transport benefits and related vitality request and ecological outflows; To break down and select the specialized alternatives for vitality productivity change and relief of GHGs and other destructive discharges from the urban transport framework; and To distinguish and rank the boundaries to the acquaintance of chose specialized choices with alleviate natural emanations from the urban transport framework. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 6

Travel Demand, Energy Demand and Associated Environmental Emissions COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 7

Projection of Travel Demand GDP Growth Rate for BAU Projection (%) GDP Growth Rate for Alternative Scenarios Alternative Scenario 1 is 1.5 times BAU GDP development rate Alternative Scenario 2 is 1.25 times BAU GDP development rate Alternative Scenario 3 is 0.75 times BAU GDP development rate Alternative Scenario 4 is 0.5 times BAU GDP development rate COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 8

Demand for Transport Services (p-km): BAU Projection Annual normal development rate of interest for transport administrations would be in the scope of 3.3% (Beijing) to 7.3% (HCMC) amid 1998-2020. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 9

2020 2005 Trucks Bus 3% 7% Trucks Bus 2% 10% Car 26% Car 29% 2-Wheeler 2-Wheeler 64% 59% 2020 2005 Bus Trucks Bus Trucks 1% 12% 2-Wheeler 0% 9% 2-Wheeler 13% 7% Car 74% 84% Vehicle offer (of the aggregate vehicles) in Bandung and Beijing Bandung Beijing COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 10

Others 2005 2020 Bus 2% Trucks Others Bus 1% Trucks 4% 2% 0% Car 4% 28% 32% 2-Wheeler 2-Wheeler 61% 66% 2020 2005 Trucks Bus 2-Wheeler Trucks 4% 2% 6% 7% 25% Car half 2-Wheeler Car 19% 87% Vehicle offer (of the aggregate vehicles) in Delhi and Hangzhou Delhi Hangzhou COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 11

2020 2005 Bus Car 0% 3% Bus Trucks Car Trucks 0% 1% 2-Wheeler 96% 2-Wheeler 98% 2005 2020 Others Trucks 1% Trucks Bus 0% Bus 12% 13% 10% Car 12% 18% 16% 2-Wheeler 57% 2-Wheeler 61% Vehicle offer (of the aggregate vehicles) in HCMC and Jakarta HCMC Jakarta COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 12

Bus 2005 2020 2-Wheeler Car Others 1% Bus Car 8% 12% 51% Trucks 0% 34% 3% 2-Wheeler Trucks Others 9% 5% 77% Bus 2005 2020 Others Trucks 1% Trucks 10% 8% 3% Car 3% 34% 26% 2-Wheeler 2-Wheeler 52% 62% Vehicle offer (of the aggregate vehicles) in Manila and Mumbai Manila Mumbai COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 13

Change in Model Mix (2005-2020) COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 14

Car Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 populace) Beijing would have the most elevated auto proprietorship among the urban areas (248 in 2020). In any case, the number would be still not as much as that in OECD nations. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 15

Bus Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 populace) Beijing would have the most reduced transport possession amid the arranging skyline. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 16

Two-wheeler Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 populace) 2-wheeler proprietorship would be moderately low in Beijing, Hangzhou and Manila COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 17

Annual Average Growth Rate of Total Transport Energy Demand (1998-2020): BAU Projection AAGR is above 5% in all Cities COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 18

Share of CNG in Total Energy Demand in 2005 and 2020 (%) The offer of cleaner powers, i.e. CNG, would increment later on particularly in the Indian urban areas of Mumbai and Delhi took after by Hangzhou Beijing and Jakarta. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 19

Average Annual Growth Rate of CO 2 Emission During 1998-2020 (%) Average yearly development rate: in the scope of 3.1% (in Jakarta) to 12% (in Manila). All out transport CO 2 discharges from the eight urban areas: 53.8 million tons in 2020. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 20

Ratio of CO 2 in 2020 to the Base Year (1998) Emission: BAU Projection COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 21

1998 2020 Trucks Bus 11% 15% 22% 5% 2-Wheelers 32% Car 48% 2-Wheelers Car 34% 33% 1998 2020 Trucks Bus 43% Trucks Bus 2% 16% 11% 2-Wheelers 16% 2-Wheelers 3% Car 43% Car 66% Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in Bandung and Beijing Bandung Beijing COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 22

2020 1998 Bus Others Bus Trucks 23% 6% 10% 26% Trucks 20% 16% 2-Wheelers 12% 2-Wheelers Car 6% 45% 36% 1998 2020 Trucks Bus Trucks Bus 10% 25% 35% 2-Wheelers 25% 8% Car 2-Wheelers Car 37% 3% 57% Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in Delhi and Hangzhou Delhi Hangzhou COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 23

2020 1998 Bus 1% Others Car 6% Car 2% 1% 5% Trucks 7% Trucks 32% 29% 2-Wheelers 61% 2-Wheelers 56% 1998 2020 Bus Others 13% 17% Trucks 2% Trucks 26% 33% Car 34% 2-Wheelers Car 14% 2-Wheelers 41% 18% Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in HCMC and Jakarta HCMC Jakarta COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 24

1998 2020 Bus Others 4% 3% 34% Others 43% Car 46% Car Trucks half 8% Trucks 2-Wheelers 2-Wheelers 5% 3% 4% 1998 2020 Others 10% Others Trucks Bus 19% 8% Trucks 45% 35% 6% 2-Wheelers 7% 2-Wheelers 5% Car 35% 30% Modal Share in CO 2 Emissions in Manila and Mumbai Manila Mumbai COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 25

Changes in Modal Share in CO 2 Emission COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 26

Ratio of Local Pollutants in 2020 to the Base Year (1998) Emission: BAU Projection Among the urban communities, Mumbai would have the lower proportion because of the higher offer of transports, utilization of CNG and entrance of 4-stroke 2-wheelers. HCMC would have the higher proportion because of the higher offer of 2-wheelers. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 27

Technical Options for CO 2 Emission Mitigation COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 28

Technology Options Considered for Emission Mitigation COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 29

Least Cost CO 2 Mitigation Options ADO—Additive diesel oil COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 30

Least Cost CO 2 Mitigation Options Contd.. MRTS is practical at 20%, 40%, 25% and 40% CO 2 decrease focus in Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou and HCMC separately. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 31

Impact of CO 2 Mitigation Target on Emissions of Local Pollutants Local outflow decrease goals could at present be served by concentrating on CO 2 emanation diminishments. On account of Beijing and Hangzhou, the presentation of proficient diesel auto would diminish the emanation level of CO, NO x and NMVOC. Be that as it may, it would build the outflow of TSP. TSP emanation in Delhi would be diminished by 13% under 10% CO 2 decrease target. In Mumbai. TSP outflow would be diminished 14% to 10%. On account of Manila, CO discharges would fall by 32% at 10% CO 2 decrease. COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 32

Selected Technical Options to Mitigate CO 2 Emission Bandung: LPG transports, bio-diesel transports and bio- ethanol transports Beijing: CNG transports, diesel autos and MRTS Delhi: CNG transports, CNG autos and 4-stroke 2-wheelers Jakarta: CNG transports, LPG transports, bio-diesel buses and bio-ethanol transports Hangzhou: CNG transports, diesel autos and MRTS HCMC: MRT, Diesel transport Manila: CNG transports, alco-diesel transports and (coconut methyl ester) CME transports Mumbai: CNG autos, CNG 3-wheelers and BOV 3- wheelers COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 33

Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient Options COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 34

Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient Options Barriers differs from: Country to nation City to City Technology to Technology particular obstructions for every city were recognized and the investigation of hindrances are done utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 35

Barriers to the Adoption of CNG Bus COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 36

Barriers to the Adoption of Bio-fuel Busses in Manila COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 37

Barriers to the Adoption of CNG Cars COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 38

Barriers to the Adoption of MRTS COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 39

Barriers to the Adoption of 4-Stroke 2-wheelers in Delhi COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 40

Thank you COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 41

Additional Information COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India

Slide 42

Project Approach Project Development (AIT, NRIs, Regional Experts/Policy Makers) Review of Methodology (NRIs) Development of Methodology (AIT) Country Case Studies (NR

Recommended
View more...