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Global Warming and Its Implications for the Pacific Northwest.

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Global Warming and Its Implications for the Pacific Northwest Cliff Mass University of Washington Presented at the WPC Climate Conference, July 15, 2008 Three Key Points Global warming forced by increased greenhouse gases is inevitable and will be highly significant in its effects on mankind.
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A dangerous atmospheric devation and Its Implications for the Pacific Northwest Cliff Mass University of Washington Presented at the WPC Climate Conference, July 15, 2008

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Three Key Points Global warming constrained by expanded nursery gasses is unavoidable and will be profoundly critical in its impacts on humankind. The science is surely known and in view of major material science and modern models. Instabilities exists, however won't change the fundamental results.

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Three Key Points Outside of the Arctic, the a worldwide temperature alteration sign amid the previous quite a few years has for the most part been inconspicuous and covered by the ordinary variability of the atmosphere framework. Sometimes, an unnatural weather change “supporters’ have built up its present and past impacts (e.g., Katrina, Cascade snowpack decrease) In different cases, a dangerous atmospheric devation “skeptics” have wrongly released worldwide warming’s future impact in view of off base translations of the past and current atmosphere record (this spring’s cool spell) or raised “red herring” variables (sun based variability).

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Three Key Points Remember the worldwide in an Earth-wide temperature boost. Despite the fact that the globe all in all will warm, the progressions won't be uniform. A few regions (e.g., the polar locales) will encounter immense changes while in others the impacts will be far less. The Pacific Northwest may well be one of those locales of postponed or lesser impacts. The variability in nearby effect of GW is a key exploration subject today… and an issue of extraordinary societal significance.

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Have Large Impacts of Global Warming Already Occurred in the Pacific Northwest? A few cases: 30-half loss of Cascade snowpack Maximum streamflow happening 20-30 days prior Heavier downpour and more surges. The fact of the matter is that there is no proof that human prompted a worldwide temperature alteration has brought about such noteworthy effects. In any case, that is not saying that they won’t happen later on.

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Loss of Northwest Snowpack Due to Global Warming Some nearby researchers and legislators have asserted a misfortune up to half since 1950 and have either inferred, proposed, or unequivocally expressed that this is because of an Earth-wide temperature boost. Is this truly genuine?

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Scientific Consensus Statement Signed by Several Dozen Prominent NW Scientists for the Governor of Oregon

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From Mote et al 2006

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extensive snowpack since 1950, Relative to 1971-2000 ordinary Snowpack in common most extreme month

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far reaching snowpack time of record, Relative to 1971-2000 typical Snowpack in normal greatest month

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New Research: Stoelinga, Mass, and Albright 2008 Proxy Oregon/Washington Snowpack (April 1 Snow Water Equ) Trends Depend on When You Start

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Cascade Snowpack has INCREASED amid the previous 30 years 1976-2007 Trends in 1 Apr SWE for Elevation Quartiles (EQs): EQ4: +7.1% EQ3: +9.4% EQ2: +7.8% EQ1: +6.4% EQ4 High EQ3 EQ2 EQ1 Low Stoelinga et al 2008. Time arrangement of rise quartile (EQ)- found the middle value of 1 April SWE (in mm) measured at snow course amid the period 1976-2007. Height ranges for the four quartiles are: (1) 792-1119 m; (2) 1119-1288 m; (3) 1288-1542 m; and (4) 1542-1981 m. Dashed lines show best-fit lines for every EQ. Additionally recorded are the 1976-2007 patterns for every EQ (as percent of the 1961-1990 mean).

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) PDO is thought to be a characteristic method of environmental variability Negative period of PDO connected with more noteworthy snowpack in NW.

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Why has the Northwest snowpack continued as before or expanded amid the most recent quite a few years while worldwide perceptions propose we are amidst a 30 year warm-up period, one that models recommend is because of nursery gas emanation?

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IPCC Report

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Observations has demonstrated that the eastern Pacific has not warmed up much amid the most recent thirty years.

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- 1.4 - 1.2 - 1.0 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0.0 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1.0 +1.2 +1.4 Air Temperature Trend (1979-2005) Change in Surface Air Temperature (°C) from 1979-2008

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General Circulation Model Simulations for the Next Century Also Suggest that the Eastern Pacific Will Warm Up Less Than Most of the Globe

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Climate Model Output for 2100

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Averaging a best's gathering GCMs over the Pacific Suggests the Same Thing for the Future (a) SST (b) T sfc (c) T 850 SST 850 mb 0.0 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0 °C Air Temp Stoelinga, Albright and Mass 2008 Predicted direct pattern of November-March mean temperature for 2000 to 2025 (°C), as anticipated by the group of atmosphere models utilized as a part of the IPCC AR4 report. Indicated are the group method for (an) ocean surface temperature, (b) surface air temperature, and (c) 850-hPa temperature.

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Delayed Warming in the Pacific Northwest It gives the idea that worldwide warming’s impacts will be deferred in the Northwest because of its closeness to the Pacific Ocean. Be that as it may, in the long run, GW will have a significant effect. The best innovation to deciding nearby impacts is downscaling general dissemination model recreations utilizing high determination provincial expectation models. Such work is progressing at the University of Washington

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Large Drop in Snowpack in the Mountains Later in the Century

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Precipitation Bottom Line: No Real Trend in Amounts or Extremes

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The Precipitation Argument You Often Hear As temperature builds so will the measure of dampness in the environment, and accordingly there will be more rain and substantial precipitation occasions

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October to March Precipitation Over the Cascades From Stoelinga, Albright, Mass 2008

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High Resolution Climate Simulation

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Why Simple Arguments Could Fail various hypothetical, displaying, and observational studies have recommended that the plane stream will move northward under an Earth-wide temperature boost. Solid tempests and overwhelming precipitation (pineapple express circumstances) have a tendency to take after the plane stream. It is conceivable that the “action” could move north of us under GW, with less real tempests.

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Is this officially happening? A few studies have discovered a decrease in overwhelming precipitation over Oregon The quantity of real windstorms has dropped over Oregon.

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Summary The confirmation that the world will warm up significantly because of nursery gas discharges is convincing. The impacts won't be uniform. The Northwest is found downstream of the Pacific and consequently will see lesser and postponed effects. In this way, the effects over the NW have been insignificant. Before the century's over even the NW will encounter considerable warming and loss of snowpack, unless moves are made now to balance out and decrease nursery gas emanations.

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Summary The atmosphere framework is mind boggling so be careful with straightfor