An unnatural weather change: Potential Impacts on National Parks in the Pacific Northwest.


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A dangerous atmospheric devation: Potential Consequences for National Parks in the Pacific Northwest Bluff Mass, Branch of Air Sciences College of Washington A dangerous atmospheric devation and the Northwest National Stops Some potential effects that have been specified:
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Slide 1

A worldwide temperature alteration: Potential Effects on National Parks in the Pacific Northwest Cliff Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington

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Global Warming and the Northwest National Parks Some potential effects that have been specified: More windstorms, with expanded harm to woods and waterfront zones Heavier downpour, with all the more flooding occasions. Diminished snowpack, and prior spring melt. Lessening in number and degree of icy masses.

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Questions Have we seen such effects amid the previous couple of decades? What would it be a good idea for us to expect amid the rest of this century?

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The Bottom Line Global warming is a remarkably genuine worldwide issue, yet a few zones will have lesser or more noteworthy impacts. The Northwest may well be an area where GW impacts are postponed and weaker than the worldwide normal. Right now, we are not ready to exhibit that a dangerous atmospheric devation has delivered quantifiable effects on Northwest climate and atmosphere.

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The Bottom Line The effect of an unnatural weather change over the Northwest amid the following couple of decades is not clear. Effects, particularly on snowpack and icy mass amplify, ought to be huge by the center to end of the century.

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Floods The November 6, 2006 surges at Mount Rainier and the December 3, 2007 flooding of Chehalis and Centralia has sharpened us to this danger. The hand-waving contention is that warming temperatures will bring about more water vapor in the environment, heavier downpour, and more surges. The truth is considerably more muddled.

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What does the information appear? Beach front Rainfall: The pattern in the quantity of occasions more noteworthy than two inches more than two days from 1950-2000 Increasing Trend Decreasing Trend California Oregon Washngton Canada

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Trend in the main 60 storms: 24h precipitation

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High Resolution Global Warming Simulations: Looking to the Future

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Its Not So Simple Flooding is related examples called “Atmospheric Rivers”….a.k.a. the Pineapple Express…which are firmly connected with the plane stream.

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Another probability most models propose the plane stream will debilitate and move poleward under a dangerous atmospheric devation. Will the “hose” - the climatic waterways move with it? Is that is what is going on in Oregon? A considerable measure of instability exists.

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What about other climate components affecting the parks? Real Northwest windstorms…like the Columbus Day Storm or the Chanukah Eve Storm…are firmly connected with the plane stream. Not at all like typhoons their vitality source is flat temperature contrasts, not warm water. Atmosphere models recommend that the plane stream…and related temperature differentiations, will debilitate and all the more northward. Suggestion: weaker and more distant north tempests in the midlatitudes Interestingly, the quantity of significant windstorms in Oregon has obviously diminished.

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Declining snowpack because of an Earth-wide temperature boost? Significant issue in the well known danger and among some politicians—some asserting we have officially lost half! From Mote et al 2006

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far reaching snowpack since 1950, Relative to 1971-2000 ordinary Snowpack in common greatest month

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expansive snowpack time of record, Relative to 1971-2000 typical Snowpack in regular most extreme month

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Cascade Snowpack has INCREASED amid the previous 30 yrs 1976-2007 Trends in 1 Apr SWE for Elevation Quartiles (EQs): EQ4: +7.1% EQ3: +9.4% EQ2: +7.8% EQ1: +6.4% EQ4 High EQ3 EQ2 EQ1 Low Stoelinga et al 2008. Time arrangement of height quartile (EQ)- arrived at the midpoint of 1 April SWE (in mm) measured at snow course amid the period 1976-2007. Height ranges for the four quartiles are: (1) 792-1119 m; (2) 1119-1288 m; (3) 1288-1542 m; and (4) 1542-1981 m. Dashed lines show best-fit lines for every EQ. Additionally recorded are the 1976-2007 patterns for every EQ (as percent of the 1961-1990 mean).

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) PDO is thought to be a characteristic method of air variability Negative period of PDO connected with more noteworthy snowpack in NW.

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A Favored Area? The Northwest is downwind of the eastern Pacific and in this manner our snowpack is controlled by the Pacific temperatures. The eastern Pacific has not warmed up amid the previous 30 years. Worldwide atmosphere models propose the eastern Pacific will warm more gradually than most areas.

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- 1.4 - 1.2 - 1.0 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0.0 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1.0 +1.2 +1.4 Air Temperature Trend (1979-2005) Change in Surface Air Temperature (°C) from 1979-2008

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Climate Model Output for 2100

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Averaging a best\'s gathering atmosphere models over the Pacific Suggests the Same Thing for the Future (a) SST (b) T sfc (c) T 850 SST 850 mb 0.0 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0 °C Air Temp Stoelinga, Albright and Mass 2008 Predicted straight pattern of November-March mean temperature for 2000 to 2025 (°C), as anticipated by the outfit of atmosphere models utilized as a part of the IPCC AR4 report. Demonstrated are the troupe method for (an) ocean surface temperature, (b) surface air temperature, and (c) 850-hPa temperature.

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Summary Global warming is sure, the inquiry is its extent and local impacts. The progressions\' extents will differ geologically, and the Northwest may see debilitated and postponed impacts, due to our area downstream of the Pacific, and the way of our tempests. An Earth-wide temperature boost is a genuine, yet confounded issue, and a thoughts\' percentage being tossed around by the mainstream press and well meaning however misguided individuals are not so much right. Minimal solid proof right now of any major an Earth-wide temperature boost dangers to the district or the parks amid the following a very lo

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