A dangerous atmospheric devation Energy Challenges RecycleWorks Brown Bag Lecture Series County of San Mateo January 31, 2006Slide 2
Overview Greenhouse impact Historic carbon emanations/CO 2 rise Forcing models/temperature forecasts Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F) Peak oil/Hubbertâs crest Future and current vitality challenges Energy value â and the street aheadSlide 3
Solar Energy and earthâs Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/atmosphere/globalwarming.htmlSlide 4
Global Warming - the 20 th Century http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htmSlide 5
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to copy the initial trillion barrels of oil â weâll copy the following trillion in under 30 years â why would it be advisable for you to mind?Slide 6
Rising CO 2 more than 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.htmlSlide 7
Carbon Emissions and CO 2 Carbon blazed => CO 2 Linear from 1850 to 2000 - ppm CO 2 =2.55 e 10-4 *M tons C + 297 ppm (r 2 *100=99%) ~ half of carbon goes into barometrical CO 2 33% into the seas Trend is consistent more than 150 years â is this how the biosphere will respond throughout the following 150 years? A close flawless relationship that predicts ppm CO 2 from aggregate carbon blazedSlide 8
Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/vitality/world/outlook.htmlSlide 9
GHG Emissions by SourceSlide 10
Future CO 2 â the Next 30 Yrs Based on 2% yearly development in carbon emanations 2000 - 2030Slide 11
Global Climate Models (GCM) Ab Initio demonstrating From first standards Modeling area and ocean temps from 1900 - 2000 Complexity and information Climate is a dynamic framework â â complex â math GISS study 10 year study over seas Sea temps ~7,500 ft profundity Satellite information for compellingSlide 12
Forcing Calculations Some math is requiredâ¦. Constraining (Watts) = climatic compelling variable increased by: ln (ppm gas conc. current/ppm gas conc. memorable) 2) ATM compelling element for CO 2 ascertained (est.) to be 5.85 watts 3) For 2005, estimation = 5.85 W * ln (380 ppm/280 ppm) = ~1.8W 4) For CO 2 , atmosphere affectability = 2/3 degree C for every 1 watt of constraining 5) 25 to 50 years for the atmosphere to react to 60% of this driving You can show this in Excel and anticipate temperatures from ppm [CO 2 ]Slide 14
Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/Slide 15
Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag , 2000 - 2100 0 F - Model manufactured accepting ~60% of constraining is felt in ~25 yearsSlide 16
The Carbon Cycle Why barometrical CO 2 is the exact opposite thing people ought to have meddled with! We are discharging CO 2 at one million times the rate that earth at first sequestered it at We embedded ourselves in the carbon cycle And are influencing the âthermostat of lifeâ Earth utilizes CO 2 to help keep up an ideal temperature for the biosphere, for > 650K yearsSlide 17
The Thermostat of Life Vostok ice center information show standard and rehashing cycles of temps and CO 2 over last ~500,000 years Oscillate somewhere around 180 and 280 ppm CO 2 and 10 0 C Hypothesis that earth controls the planet\'s temperature through CO 2/nursery impact Biosphere keeps up an exact level of CO 2 forever But the biosphere isnât truly engrossing our CO 2 Y capture of cum. carbon smolder/CO 2 is 297 ppm http://courses.washington.edu/pcc589/papers/Shackleton2000.pdfSlide 18
Vostok CO 2 and Temperature The relationship between CO 2 and temperature is about impeccable (r 2 *100 = 99) However, the easygoing relationship is the premise for huge (master) discussion Why does this happen?Slide 19
The Vostok Equilibrium Vostok âequilibriumâ 100K year cycles earthâs orbital erraticism Sun warms up the planet Biosphere grows CO 2 keeps up temp Otherwise earth would be extremely icy ~ 0 degrees F CO 2 has not surpassed 280 ppm in the most recent 500K years and 4 noteworthy cyclesSlide 20
Crux of the Vostok Data Temperature drives biomass CO 2 , then CO 2 looks after temperatureSlide 21
Just One Degree F These illustrations will demonstrate the influence of warming the earth at only one degree F And for under 50 years! Warming has quickened in last ~20 years The influence of temperature is combined Earth takes decades to hundreds of years to respond And despite everything we owe an extra degree F!Slide 22
Long Term Warming Effects Not simply expanded temperature, yet included warmth, for a long, long, time!Slide 23
Consequences of Warming Thinning of polar ice tops Thawing permafrost/arrival of methane Slowing of the thermohaline cycle Rising ocean level, maybe rapidly Extreme climate occasions Extended areas of dry season Extremes of temperature/length of time Extremes of tempests and tropical storms All these are results of one and only degree F for <50 years!Slide 24
Storms on the Move Katrina moving crosswise over Florida in late August 2005 discovers warm water in the Gulf of Mexico And develops from a class 1 to a classification 5 typhoon in under 2 days!Slide 25
The Melting North Pole The North Pole is diminishing in range ~10% every decade, and diminishing in thickness ~1 meter every decade. At these rates, it might be a vast ocean as right on time as 2030 â 2050. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/Slide 26
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.htmlSlide 27
Thermohaline Cycle http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/om.html NASA schematic perspective ofâ ocean circulation.â The light shaded way indicates theâ general development of the surface waters and the dull hued way demonstrates the development of waterâ at depth.Â The numbersâ show the position of:â 1. The Gulf Stream which transports heat from the tropics to northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water formationâ which results from strongâ cooling.â 3. Antarctic Bottom Water arrangement because of ocean iceâ production around Antarctica.Slide 28
Antarctica CrackingSlide 29
Calving Ice Shelf Process Antarctic holds >80% of earthâs crisp water Like the Arctic, it directs the atmosphere Calving at the ice\'s edge rack Shelves keep the principle ice streams down As they break, ice streams into the ocean Melt water fills the ice cleft Water sinks, hole grow - Fissuring the rack into piecesSlide 30
The Larsen B Ice Shelf was the measure of Rhode Island!Slide 31
Greenland Melting http://www.comcast.net/information/news/photoshow/html/news/246569.htmlSlide 32
Retreating Glaciers http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/Slide 33
Sea Level Expansion Sea extends from water particle changing 0.0002 in volume for every 0 C Over 5,000 to 7,500 meters, it includes Thermal development is 1 â 2 cm/10 yrs. Yet, is quickening to 2.5 cm/decade For each 1 0 C, ocean extends ~1 meter in tallness - ocean can\'t grow âdown or outâ http://yosemite.epa.gov/paddle/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsProbability.htmlSlide 34
Sea Level Rise http://geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/site/slr30mla/viewer.htmSlide 35
Peak Oil â âAfter the Crashâ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Slide 36
Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/vitality/world/outlook.htmlSlide 37
World Oil Production History http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_OilSlide 38
Oil Discovery (3 year normal - past and anticipated) 1930-2050 http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/energycrisis.htmSlide 39
Oil Production â Reserves Data from âThe Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Productionâ, Hirsch, 2005Slide 40
Energy Equity Burning oil is copying cash! Construct a vitality foundation with value Solar vitality is essential , not elective! $25 billion economy for âmillion sun powered roofsâ Every MW of sunlight based vitality makes 24 occupations in assembling , and 8 for nearby installers Built in America , by Americans , for America, what could be more monetary ? http://www.solarelectricpower.org/Slide 41
Fuel cells Hydrogen Solar vitality Batteries Motors New power network Low power lighting Insulation materials Safer atomic force CO 2 sequestration 10 Key Energy Challenges Establishing Technical Leadership in a New Energy Economy An Apollo style program on a Manhattan Project TimelineSlide 42
Building a Solar Economy Solar force is an essential , not elective vitality 25% of power could be produced by sun oriented in 2025 Solar brings genuine vitality autonomy from carbon It obliges a guarantee , not only a venture of $s Research in more up to date slight film innovation shows guarantee Our Solar Power Future â The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and past â distributed in 2005 One Million Solar Roofs â âCalifornia, the Solar StateâSlide 43
Cars - a Growing Global ProblemSlide 44
A New Auto Economy ? New sorts of autos Electric autos Hydrogen autos Hydrogen half and halves Transportation is a key territory of developing CO 2 And one zone where we can independently roll out key improvements in the CO 2 that we every produceSlide 45
A Real Hybrid Vehicle Gas Electric Synergy Drive â¢ - âplug-in hybridsâ coming soonSlide 46
Flexible Fuel Electric Plug-in Hybrids 1 KWhr resolution this âhybridâ auto around 4 miles Burning characteristic gas for power, will create around 1 lb. of CO 2 Compare to 2 pounds of CO 2 at 40 mpg (petrol) Recharge auto around evening time, when force rates are low. Put âpower on the gridâ amid the day wi
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