Atmosphere VARIABILITY Sways ON DENGUE AND Powerlessness IN THE CARIBBEAN.


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Atmosphere VARIABILITY Sways ON DENGUE AND Defenselessness IN THE CARIBBEAN Dharmaratne Amarakoon ** , Anthony Chen, Roxann Stennett C limate S tudies G roup M ona , UWI , Jamaica Samuel C. Rawlins, David Chadee UWI, St. Augustine Grounds and Service of Wellbeing, Trinidad
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Atmosphere VARIABILITY IMPACTS ON DENGUE AND VULNERABILITY IN THE CARIBBEAN Dharmaratne Amarakoon ** , Anthony Chen, Roxann Stennett C limate S tudies G roup M ona , UWI , Jamaica Samuel C. Rawlins, David Chadee UWI, St. Augustine Campus & Ministry of Health, Trinidad 2 nd AIACC REGIONAL MEETING, Buenos Aires, Argentina: August 24-27, 2004

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QUESTIONS THAT ARE BEING ANSWERED What was the topographical dispersion and the way of dengue examples in the Caribbean? What was the atmosphere\'s way variability in the Caribbean in the course of the most recent couple of decades? What are the variables that may affect Dengue plagues, uncovered from different studies? What were the effects of atmosphere variability on DENGUE found in the Caribbean? What groups are required to be conceivably defenseless and conceivable explanations behind the defenselessness? How could the outcomes from this effect study be used to diminish weakness?

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DATA & METHODOLOGY The information gained for the CCID venture by the CSGM gave the main part of the atmosphere information: Temperature (greatest, least and mean) and Precipitation, every day or month to month values CAREC gave the study of disease transmission information as reported dengue cases and vector records, yearly, 4-week period, month to month, quarterly values. More consideration was centered around reported dengue cases Data investigation : Time arrangement examination of yearly reported cases and their rates of progress, mean temperature, mean precipitation, temperature and precipitation abnormalities; Study of the climatology of temperature, precipitation, and reported cases; Performance of factual hugeness tests for watched relationships and different straight relapse, wherever relevant. ENSO year ( E l N i ño & L a N iã±a ) arrangement : NOAA - CDC MEI list and NCEP/CPC Quarterly SST list { EN : 1982/83, 1986/87, 1992/93, 1997/98. LN : 1988/89, 1998+/00} Supplementary : 1994/95 Main study period : 1980 to 2001

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THE CARIBBEAN Incidence of Dengue

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Figure b Jn D Figure an En En+1

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DISTRIBUTION OF EPIDEMICS PEAKS AMONG ENSO PHASES

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Seasonality of the Epidemics and Relation to Climate Parameters ___________________________________________________________ Country Year Epidemic Peak Temperature Precipitation Peak ___________________________________________________________ T and T 1995 August (frail) Apr. to Nov Jun. to Sep. 1996 September (solid) Apr. to Dec. May to Oct. 1997 December (solid) May to Dec. July and Nov. 1998 July to Sep. (solid) March to Nov. May to Sep. 1999 September (powerless) Apr. to Dec. Jul. to Oct. Barbados1995 October (solid) Apr. to Nov. Jul. to Oct. 1996 September (powerless) Apr. to Nov. May to Nov. 1997 November (solid) Apr. to Nov. June to Nov. 1998 Aug. to Sep. (powerless) Apr. to Oct. Jul. to Nov. 1999 November (frail) Apr. to Nov. Jun. to Nov . _____________________________________________________________

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Recent examination of Caribbean temperature by Peterson and Taylor et al (2002) show expanding pattern

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Time Series of Rainfall and Temperature inconsistencies at Piarco in Trinidad

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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL

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IMPACTS SEEN IN OTHER STUDIES Hales et al.,(1996)- Association of upsurges of dengue in south pacific islands with ENSO occasions. Gagnon et al.,(2001)- Statistically huge connection (>90% certainty level) between dengue pandemics and El Nino occasions in French Guiana, Indonesia, Colombia and Surinam. Poveda et al.,(2000)- Association of dengue crests in Colombia amid El Nino+1 years because of temperature increments and stagnant water gathered for utilization amid dry season. Campione-Piccardo et al.,(2003)- Monthly reports of dengue cases and infection separates taking after the precipitation with a slack of a few months, in Trinidad and Tobago. Focks et al.,(1995)- Possibility of shortening of EIP (Extrinsic Incubation Period) at higher temperatures. Koopman et al.,(1991)- Possibility of higher transmission rates of dengue at shorter brooding periods. Wegbreit (1997)- Statistically critical relationship in the middle of temperature and dengue occurrence rates in T & T, given a slack of around six months.

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CORRELATION RESULTS OF ANNUAL DENGUE CASES WITH TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL

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LAG CORRELATION RESULTS ( Multiple Regression )

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[Wegbreit (1997)]

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MonthlyVariability OF Rainfall, MeanT and Breteau Index in 2003: T & T

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RESULTS SUMMARY There is a very much characterized regularity in the pandemics. Likelihood of pandemics amid El Nino and El Nino+1 years is high. Both temperature and precipitation impact dengue flare-ups. Between yearly variability is more connected with temperature (warming) and intra-yearly variability is connected more to precipitation variability.

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SCENARIOS LEADING TO VULNERABILITY ( POTENTIAL BREEDING PLACES )

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POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES Having no learning of the sickness and vulnerabilty. With poor ecological conditions, including sanitation. That are thickly populated. Without suitable water supplies (funnel borne water) which brings about water gathering in compartments for more times of utilization.

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POSSIBLE REASONS FOR VULNERABILITY Lack of assets (stores, labor). Nonattendance of dynamic vector annihilation programs (no customary showering, no utilization of microscopic organisms like BT [Bacilus Thuringien]). Nonattendance of pertinent training projects on mindfulness. Nonattendance of strategies to screen the groups and ecological conditions and upkeep. Financial status of groups (neediness, high populace thickness). Lacking information on vector progress and infection replication.

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How could the outcomes from this effect study be used to diminish weakness ? Grow early cautioning frameworks in view of the regularity, slack and future atmosphere expectations, prompting compelling projects on open mindfulness and instruction.

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Best Option to diminish Vulerability : “Public Awareness & Education” CLEAN-UP OR PAY-UP !

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Thank you

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.:t

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