Atomic Power Then and Now .

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Atomic Power Then and Now. Symposium on Financial aspects in the Atomic Business Northeastern New York Area American Atomic Culture John M. Tuohy Jr. PE Thursday, Walk 30, 2006. Components Affecting Sending of Atomic Vitality. Development of new atomic advances
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Atomic Power Then and Now Symposium on Economics in the Nuclear Industry Northeastern New York Section American Nuclear Society John M. Tuohy Jr. PE Thursday, March 30, 2006

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Factors Influencing Deployment of Nuclear Energy Emergence of new atomic innovations Nuclear fuel air Proliferation concerns Regulatory change Potential move to a hydrogen economy National vitality security approaches Environmental strategies University of Chicago Study 03/2004

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Economics of Deploying Plants During the Next Decade Capital cost is the absolute most critical element (S&W + cost of capital) First-of-a-kind building (FOAKE) costs for new outlines could expand capital expenses by 35 percent Without Federal money related arrangements to help the atomic part, new atomic plants going ahead line in the following decade are anticipated to have a levelized cost of power (LCOE) of $46-$70 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Gauges for coal-and gas-let go power are $34 and $36 per MWh, separately. With Federal administrative help with the type of advance ensures, quickened deterioration, speculation charge credits, and creation assess credits, new atomic plants could turn out to be more aggressive. LCOEs could come to the $32-$50 per MWh go, contingent upon the help bundle. College of Chicago Study 03/2004

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Economics of Deploying Plants During the Next Decade Economics of Deploying the Next Series of Nuclear Plants With the advantage of the experience from the initial few plants, LCOEs are relied upon to tumble to the scope of $31-$45 per MWh regardless of the possibility that there is no proceeded with money related help. Future Greenhouse Gas Policies If stringent nursery strategies are actualized and advances in carbon catch and sequestration improvement demonstrate less powerful than trusted, coal-let go power\'s LCOE could ascend as high as $84 per MWh and gas-let go power\'s LCOE could ascend as high as $49 per MWh. With such costs, the aggressiveness of atomic vitality would not be an issue. College of Chicago Study 03/2004

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Electric Power Industry Fuel Costs December 2004 through November 2005 "A gas cost of $4.50 per MBtu would yield a LCOE of $45 per MWh. It is improbable that new gas plants would be worked at expected costs of this level." University of Chicago Study 03/2004 Reference: Energy Information Administration

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International Snapshot - UK ENERGY MINISTER MALCOLM WICKS CHALLENGED INDUSTRY TO ANSWER how it accepted more prominent conviction over atomic authorizing could be accomplished, alongside shorter arranging forms, without a debilitating of current administrative investigation and shields. The UK atomic industry needs to address some of these central inquiries if atomic "is ever to be considered some portion without bounds vitality mix,"

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EU Perspective March 28, 2006 - Guardian Unlimited - Nuclear responses; Impetus inside the EU for a restoration of nuclear vitality is social occasion pace – The dominant part of EU pioneers finally week\'s EU summit, including Tony Blair, gave solid support to a recovery of atomic power as the solution to Europe\'s have to decrease its developing reliance on abroad vitality supplies and to battle environmental change. Just Germany and Austria expressly dismisses the atomic choice in mystery summit talks, as indicated by senior German negotiators who called attention to that Angela Merkel, the nation\'s chancellor and a prepared physicist, favored it by and by yet was bound by her social democrat coalition accomplices to reject it.

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Nuclear Energy – Then and Now Generation I – Early Prototype Reactors Shippingport Dresden Fermi Generation II – Commercial Power Reactors PWR, BWR, CANDU, VVER Generation III – Advanced LWR ABWR AP600 EPR System 80+ Generation III + – Evolutionary Designs Extensions of the outlines of the 80s Improved Economics Construct, Operate, Maintain Replacements for the current armada Address CO 2 outflow issues

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Nuclear Energy – Worldwide 441 working force reactors 31 nations 363,000 MW 30 reactors under development 24 nations arranging 104 reactors Applications outside electric era Hydrogen creation Water desalination District warming

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Nuclear Energy – United States 219,300 MW of new era required by 2025 (EIA) Evolutionary Designs and Features Revolutionary Near-Term Design PBMR

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Generation IV Industrial Forum (GIF) (10 Nations) GIF - Objectives for New Nuclear Reactor Systems Sustainable Meets Clean air targets Effective fuel use Effective administration of atomic waste Economics Clear life-cycle cost advantage Financial hazard similar to other vitality ventures Safety and Reliability Very low probability of center harm Excel in target security and dependability measure Designs that dispose of the requirement for offsite crisis reaction Proliferation Resistant Inherent

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Generation IV Industrial Forum (GIF) (Results) Generation IV - Revolutionary Designs Gas Cooled Fast Reactor (GFR) Lead Cooled Fast Reactor (LFR) Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Sodium Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) Supercritical-Water –Cooled Reactor (SCWR) Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) Gas Turbine-Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR) Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)

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Revolutionary Near Term Candidate PBMR Helium coolant Graphite arbitrator 900 ° C versus 340 ° C helium reactor outlet temperature Demonstration plant operational 2011 Thermal effectiveness > 40% 400 MWth 165 MWe Small Modular

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PBMR Accommodate development in littler secluded additions Locate close request 24 month development lead time (first cement to fuel stack) Low working cost Load taking after ability Predictable fuel cost and accessibility Address Climate change

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PBMR History RSA Electric Picture 90% Coal 5% Nuclear 5% Hydro and pumped stockpiling 1995 Eskom pre-achievability study HTR 15 MWe (40 MWth) look into reactor at Julich Operated from 1966 to 1988 THTR 300 MWe (750 MWth) Operated from 1985 to 1988 1997 Technical and Economic review 1999 Acquired permit from HTR GmbH 2000 PBMR Company shaped Eskom, IDC of SA, BNF, Exelon

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PBMR Electricity Demonstration Project Has Been Launched Currently more than 700 proportional full-time staff dealing with venture at PBMR and at key providers Basic plan being finished and itemized configuration began Revised Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) submitted and refreshed Safety Analysis Report (SAR) nearing fruition Construction Manager activating Contracts with key providers for basic segments pushing ahead Firm development plan set up at Koeberg-South Africa Site Access January 2007 Construction Excavation Starts May 2007 Fuel Load September 2010 Plant Turnover to Client September 2011

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PBMR Demonstration Plant 400 MW th (165 MW e ) module Footprint: 5000 m 2 Profile: 41m above level, 22m beneath level Dry cooling a choice Base load or load taking after capacity Application Electric, hydrogen generation, area warming, desalination Cost aggressive with SA coal at beach front site

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PBMR (Environment and Safety) Fuel configuration prompts to inalienable wellbeing (no dissolve down) Addresses worries on environmental change and asset usage Combustion of iota of C + O 2 discharges ~2 ev of vitality A solitary splitting discharges ~200,000,000 ev of vitality

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Summary and Conclusions PBMR is a developing, full-scale, Generation IV plan today PBMR has a steady South African government and an utility dispatch client for power Construction is planned to begin mid-2007 in South Africa German innovation base, disentangled outline, natural wellbeing, on-line refueling and the utilization of demonstrated TRISO fuel give trust in sheltered, solid and monetary operation Modularity gives focused financial matters through assembling reiteration and organized presentation of limit The PBMR configuration is adaptable and versatile to an extensive variety of vitality applications PBMR genuinely will be the 1 st Generation IV reactor

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Then Regulated Utilities Procured and Operated control plants Guaranteed Operating Profit Long term and wide point of view Supported Participation in Professional Societies

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Then Architect Engineers CPFF - the more it takes the more they make AEC (NRC) Regulations were all the while being figured Nuclear Codes were still a work in progress RFP arrangement and survey Proposal assessments Redesigns to reflect merchant data Document audits (Charge 10 pennies for each duplicate for Xeroxing) Drawing audits (Drawing holds pending information required) Interferences (models) Cut and glue truly implied cut and glue Slide rules where still being used

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Now Independent Power Generators Profits no longer ensured High overall revenues are conceivable however get passed on to stockholders not shoppers Consolidation of proprietorship Industry developed, plants working productively Lots of weight on faculty Limited utility contribution in plan and development

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Now Architect Engineers CPFF contracts not open finished Mature permitting condition New authorizing conventions being executed Personnel actualizing permitting unpracticed and in need of help Codes and Standards have developed yet are not being refreshed overwhelmingly (industry no longer backings code advancement as it once did)

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The Public Will Ultimately Decide The future truly relies on upon whether we can viably get exact data out to people in general Avoid being hoodwinked (e.g. KI Pills) The press is the guard I am hopeful!

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