Choice Instruments to Assess Vulnerabilities and Adjustment Methodologies to Environmental Change Water Assets Area.


59 views
Uploaded on:
Description
Sebasti n Vicu a. College of California, Berkeley/SEI. CGE Hands-on Training Workshop on ... Hydrologic ramifications of environmental change for water assets ...
Transcripts
Slide 1

Choice Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Water Resources Sector Sebastián Vicuña University of California, Berkeley/SEI CGE Hands-on Training Workshop on V&A Assessments for the Latin America and the Caribbean Region Asunción, Paraguay, 14-18 August 2006

Slide 2

Outline Vulnerability and adjustment as for water assets Hydrologic ramifications of environmental change for water assets Tools/models WEAP model presentation Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

Slide 3

Effective V&A Assessments Defining V&A appraisal Often V&A in the water division concentrates on investigation over evaluation Why? Since the emphasis is on biophysical impacts, e.g., hydrologic reaction, crop yields, land use, and so forth. Appraisal is a coordinating procedure requiring the interface of physical and sociology and open arrangement

Slide 4

Effective V&A Assessments (proceeded with) General inquiries What is the evaluation attempting to impact? In what manner can the science/approach interface be best? By what method can the members be best all the while? General issues Participants bring contrasting goals/ability These distinctions regularly prompt dissention/varying suppositions – this is the place MCA can help in prioritization

Slide 5

Effective V&A Assessments (proceeded) To be profitable, the appraisal procedure requires Relevancy Credibility Legitimacy Consistent support An interdisciplinary procedure The evaluation procedure regularly requires an apparatus The device is typically a model or suite of models These models serve as the interface This interface is a scaffold for discourse amongst researchers and arrangement creators

Slide 6

The Water Resource Sector Water\'s "Exchange Off" Landscape

Slide 7

Water Resources from a Services Perspective Not only an assessment of precipitation spillover or streamflow But an assessment of the potential effects of a dangerous atmospheric devation on the merchandise and enterprises gave by freshwater frameworks

Slide 8

Natural Systems External Pressure State of System Little Control of procedures Water Resources – A Critical V&A Sector Must consider both oversaw and normal frameworks Human action impacts both frameworks Managed Systems External Pressure Product, great or administration Process Control administrations Example: Agriculture Example: Wetlands

Slide 9

Hydrologic \'Outside Pressures\' identified with Climate Change Precipitation sum Global normal increment Marked local contrasts Temperature increment Change in timing of streamflows Glacier retreat Precipitation recurrence and power Less incessant, more exceptional (Trenberth et al., 2003) Evaporation and transpiration Increase all out vanishing Regional complexities because of plant/environment communications

Slide 10

Specific Pressures: Annual Runoff Change in yearly overflow (A2 situation) Arnell., 2003

Slide 11

Specific Pressures: Annual Runoff Change in yearly spillover (A2 situation) Arnell., 2003

Slide 12

Specific Pressures: Annual Runoff Change in yearly overflow (A2 situation)

Slide 13

Specific Pressures: Runoff timing, similarity to North American West Stewart et al., 2004

Slide 14

Analogy with Western North America http://plasma.nationalgeographic.com/mapmachine/index.html

Slide 15

Analogy with Western North America http://plasma.nationalgeographic.com/mapmachine/index.html

Slide 16

Refill lost Inflow spilled Specific Pressures: Runoff timing, relationship to North American West

Slide 17

Specific Pressures: Retreating ice sheets Evolución del glaciar Chacaltaya (Bolivia) Retroceso del glaciar Broggi Glaciar en 1979 y 1997 Fluctuación del frente de 4 glaciares en Perú Comunicación Nacional del Perú a la UNFCCC Francou et al., 2000

Slide 18

Specific Pressures: Retreating icy masses Meltwaters are relied on amid dry season to maintain low stream periods Probable decreased volume and before timing of streams Has suggestions for hydropower generation, farming requests, and waterway and riparian quality and biological community needs

Slide 19

Specific Pressures: Extreme Climate inconstancy (El Nino/Nina Southern Oscillation) sway water accessibility and every single financial area en a few nations in the district (e.g. Peru, Ecuador, Central America) (IPCC 2001). Some atmosphere models show more El Nino-like atmosphere with expanded nursery gasses fixations (Meehl and Washington 1996; Trenberth and Hoar, 1997)

Slide 20

Specific Pressures: Extreme climate Change in extremes by the 2050s, under HadCM3 Arnell., 2003

Slide 21

Specific Pressures: Extreme climate Change in extremes by the 2050s, under HadCM3 Arnell., 1999

Slide 22

Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources Construction/alteration of physical i nfrastructure Canal linings Closed conductors rather than open channels Integrating separate supplies into a solitary framework Reservoirs/hydro-plants/conveyance frameworks Raising dam divider tallness Increasing waterway size Removing dregs from repositories for more stockpiling Inter-bowl water exchanges

Slide 23

Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources (proceeded with) Adaptive administration of existing water supply frameworks Change working guidelines for stores Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply Physically incorporate repository operation framework Coordinate supply/request Indigenous choices

Slide 24

Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources (proceeded with) Policy, protection, proficiency, and innovation Domestic Municipal and in-home re-utilization of water Leak repair Rainwater gathering for non-consumable uses Low-stream apparatuses Dual-supply frameworks (consumable and nonpotable) Agriculture Irrigation timing and productivity Drainage re-use, utilization of wastewater gushing High esteem/low water use crops Drip, small scale splash, low-vitality, exactness application water system frameworks Salt-tolerant harvests that can utilize channel water

Slide 25

Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (proceeded with) Policy, preservation, effectiveness, and innovation (proceeded with) Industry Water re-utilize and reusing Closed cycle and/or air cooling More proficient hydropower turbines Cooling lakes, wet towers and dry towers Energy (hydropower) Reservoir re-operation Cogeneration (useful utilization of waste warmth) Additional repositories and hydropower stations Low head keep running of the waterway hydropower Market/cost driven exchanges to different exercises Using water cost to move water use between areas

Slide 26

Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies What instruments are accessible to comprehend both water asset vulnerabilities and assess conceivable adjustment procedures? By what method can partners be occupied with these procedures?

Slide 27

Types of Water Resources Models Hydraulic : biophysical process models depicting streamflow, flooding Hydrology : precipitation/overflow forms Planning : water asset frameworks models Which model?... What inquiries would you say you are attempting to reply?

Slide 28

Hydraulic Model Critical inquiries How quick, profound is waterway streaming (flooding impacts) How do changes to stream and channel morphology sway silt transport and administrations gave (fish living spaces, amusement, and so on).

Slide 29

Hydrology Model Critical inquiries How does precipitation on a catchment decipher into stream in a waterway? What pathways does water finish as it moves a catchment? How does development along these pathways sway the extent, timing, term, and recurrence of stream streams, and additionally water quality?

Slide 30

Planning Model Critical inquiries How ought to water be allotted to different uses in time of lack? In what capacity can these operations be compelled to secure the administrations gave by the waterway? In what manner ought to base in the framework (e.g., dams, redirection works) be worked to accomplish greatest advantage (financial, social, biological)? By what means will allotment, operations, and working limitations change if new administration procedures are brought into the framework?

Slide 31

Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models Operational and pressure driven HEC-HMS – occasion based precipitation spillover (gives contribution to HEC-RAS to doing 1-d surge immersion "mapping") HEC-RAS – one-dimensional unfaltering and shaky stream HEC-ResSim – repository operation demonstrating WaterWare RiverWare MIKE11 Delft3d

Slide 32

Hydraulic Water Management Model HEC-HMS watershed scale, occasion based hydrologic recreation, of precipitation overflow forms Sub-day by day precipitation overflow procedures of little catchments Free, download from web

Slide 33

Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models (kept) Planning/hydrology WEAP21 Aquarius SWAT IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation) RIBASIM MIKE 21 and BASIN

Slide 34

Current Focus – Planning and Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change Selected arranging/hydrology models: can be conveyed on PC, broad documentation, convenience, free (or allowed to creating countries)… Aquarius SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning)

Slide 35

Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models AQUARIUS advantage: Has monetary proficiency standard requiring the reallocation of stream streams until the net minimal return in all water uses is equivalent Cannot be climatically determined – streams recommended by client Economic center

Slide 36

Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (proceeded with) SWAT favorable position: Can foresee impact of administration choices on water, residue, supplement and pesticide yields on ungauged waterway bowls. Considers complex water quality constituents. Precipitation spillover, stream directing on an every day timestep Focuses on supply side of water parity

Slide 37

Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (proceeded with) WEAP21 advantage: Seamlessly incorporates watershed hydrologic forms with water assets administration Can be climatically determined Based on all encompassing methodology of coordinated water assets administration (IWRM) – free market activity .:tsl

Recommended
View more...