Choice Making .


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Plot. DefinitionsDecisions and alternativesCharacterizing decisionsDecision settling on strategiesDecision settling on phasesImplications for choice backing. Definitions. Decision around a
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Basic leadership

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Outline Definitions Decisions and choices Characterizing choices Decision settling on techniques Decision settling on stages Implications for choice support

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Definitions Choice about a "game-plan" - - Simon Choice prompting to "a specific craved goal" - - Churchman Knowledge showing the way of a promise to activity - - Holsapple and Whinston

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Simon\'s Model of Problem Solving Decision-production comprises of three noteworthy stages - insight, outline, and decision [Simon] H.A. Simon. 1960. The New Science of Management Decision . Harper and Row, NY. Newell, A., & Simon, H.A. (1972). Human Problem Solving . Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.

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Example A rancher with his wolf, goat, and cabbage go to the edge of a stream they wish to cross. There is a vessel at the waterway\'s edge, obviously, just the rancher can push. The watercraft can just deal with one creature/thing notwithstanding the rancher. In the event that the wolf is ever taken off alone with the goat, the wolf will eat the goat. On the off chance that the goat is allowed to sit unbothered with the cabbage, the goat will eat the cabbage. What ought to the agriculturist do to get over the waterway with every one of his belonging?

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Phase I: Intelligence Problem Identification and Definition What\'s the issue? Why is it an issue? Whose issue is it?

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Phase II: Design Problem Structuring Generate options Set criteria and destinations Develop models and situations to assess choices Solve models to assess options

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Problem Solving State Space Search Initial State Goal State Operators Choosing representation and controlling the use of administrators requires basic leadership

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Problem Representation R L

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States and Operators State = <Farmer/Boat area, Wolf area, Goat area, Cabbage location> Operator <L,L,L,L> - > <R,R,L,R> … ..

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Phase III: Choice Solution Determine the result of picked choices Select the/a result steady with the choice procedure

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Decisions and Alternatives where do they originate from? what number of are sufficient? Assessment in what manner ought to every option be assessed? how dependable is our assumption about the effect of an option? Decision What technique will be utilized to touch base at a decision? E.g., DxPlain

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Human Cognitive Limitations (Harrison, 1995) Retain just constrained data in here and now memory Display distinctive sorts and degrees of insight Those who grasp shut conviction frameworks confine data look Propensity for hazard changes Level of goal emphatically connected to fancy for data

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Common Perceptual Blocks (Clemen, 1991) Difficulty in detaching an issue Delimiting the issue space too nearly Inability to see the issue from different points of view Stereotyping Cognitive immersion or over-burden

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Decision Making Strategies: Optimizing Satisficing Quasi-satisficing Sole choice govern Selection by end Incrementalism and wading through

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Decision Making Strategies Considerations Individual-centered versus association centered choices Individual versus collective choices Expensive-to-change versus modest to-change choices

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Optimizing Goal: select the game-plan with the most astounding result estimation of expenses and advantages of each feasible strategy synchronous or joint correlation of expenses and advantages of all choices high data handling load on people individuals don\'t have the ``wits to expand\'\' [Simon]

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Observations Given high cost in time, exertion, and cash Decisions are set aside a few minutes weight (``fighting fires\'\') Optimization on expressed destinations may bring about sub-advancement on implicit, less unmistakable targets Therefore, individuals regularly Do not consider all options Do not assess all options altogether and thoroughly Do not consider all goals and criteria Place more weight on elusive goals and criteria

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Satisficing Decision-producers satisfice instead of amplify [Simon]. They pick strategies that are ``good enough\'\'- - that meet a specific insignificant arrangement of necessities Theory of limited levelheadedness: individuals have constrained data preparing capacities Optimization may not be handy, especially in a multi-target issue, yet knowing the ideal answer for every goal and under different situations can give understanding to settle on a decent satisficing decision

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Sole Decision Rule ``Tell a qualified master about your issue and do whatever he (she) says - that will be sufficient\'\' [Janis and Mann] Rely upon a solitary recipe as the sole choice administer Use just a single model for an appropriate decision e.g., do nothing that might be useful for the adversary Impulsive basic leadership as a rule falls under this class

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Selection by Elimination Eliminate choices that don\'t meet the most critical measure (screening; end by viewpoints) Repeat handle for the following imperative rule, thus on Decision-production turns into a consecutive narrowing down process

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Selection by Elimination ``Better\'\' choices may be disposed of right off the bat - despicable weights alloted to criteria Decision-creator may come up short on options For complex issues, this procedure may in any case leave chief with substantial number of options

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Incrementalism Often, leaders have no genuine consciousness of touching base at another strategy or choice basic leadership is a progressing procedure the satisficing criteria themselves may change after some time Make incremental upgrades over flow circumstance and plan to achieve an ideal circumstance over the long haul Useful for ``fire-battling\'\' circumstances Frequently found in pluralistic social orders and associations

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Heuristics and Biases Heuristics are "general guidelines" that can make an inquiry procedure more proficient. Most regular inclinations in the utilization of heuristics Availability Adjustment and tying down Representativeness Motivational A. Tversky and D. Kahneman. 1974. "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases." Science , 185:1124-31

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Example 1 Which is more dangerous (likelihood of genuine mischance): a. Driving an auto on a 400 mile trip? b. Flying on a 400 mile business carrier flight?

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Example 2 Are there more words in the English dialect a. that begin with the letter r ? b. for which r is the third letter?

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Availability "what is effectively reviewed must be more probable" Inability to precisely survey the likelihood of a specific occasion happening Assess in light of past experience which may not be illustrative Structured audit and investigation of target information can diminish accessibility predisposition

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Example 1 A recently employed developer for a product firm in Pittsburgh has two years experience and great capabilities. At the point when a representative at Au Bon Pain was made a request to evaluate the beginning compensation she speculated $40,000. What is your gauge? a. $30,000 - $50,000? b. $50,000 - $70,000? c. $70,000 - $90,000?

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Example 2 A recently enlisted developer for a product firm in Pittsburgh has two years experience and great capabilities. At the point when a representative at Au Bon Pain was made a request to gauge the beginning compensation she speculated $80,000. What is your gauge? a. $30,000 - $50,000? b. $50,000 - $70,000? c. $70,000 - $90,000?

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Adjustment and Anchoring Make appraises by picking an underlying worth and after that modifying this beginning stage up or down until a last gauge is gotten Most subjectively inferred likelihood conveyances are excessively slender and come up short, making it impossible to evaluate the genuine fluctuation of the occasion Assess an arrangement of qualities, rather than simply the mean

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Example What is the undoubtedly succession of sexual orientation for arrangement of youngsters conceived inside a family? - The grouping of BBGGBG, BGBBBG, BBBBGG?

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Example Mike is completing his CMU MMM degree. He is exceptionally inspired by expressions of the human experience and at one time considered a vocation as a performer. Is Mark more prone to take a vocation: a. In the administration of human expressions? b. A medicinal administration position?

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Representativeness Attempt to learn the likelihood that a man or protest has a place with a specific gathering or class by how much attributes of that individual or question adjust to a cliché view of individuals from that gathering or class. The nearer the closeness between the two, the higher is the evaluated likelihood of affiliation Small specimen measure inclination Failure to perceive relapse to the mean (anticipated results illustrative of the information?)

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Motivational Incentives, genuine or saw, regularly prompt to likelihood gauges that don\'t precisely mirror his or her actual convictions Non-psychological, motivational predispositions Difficult to address through the plan of a DSS Solicit various assessments from comparative sources, both related and random to issue setting

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Summary: Heuristics and Biases Heuristics are general guidelines that we use to improve basic leadership. In general, heuristics result in great choices. By and large any misfortune in nature of choice is exceeded when spared. In any case, heuristics can bring about predispositions and orderly blunders in basic leadership when they come up short. Also, we are ordinarily ignorant of the heuristics and inclinations, and neglect to recognize circumstances in which their utilization is increasingly and less suitable.

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Evaluation Metrics Effectiveness: what ought to be done Easier access to significant data Faster, more proficient issue acknowledgment and distinguishing proof Easier access to processing apparatuses and models Greater capacity to create and assess vast arrangement of choices Efficiency: in what capacity should it be done Reduction in choice costs Reduction in choice time for

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