Choice Making and Thinking.

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Plot. Judgment and Decision MakingClassical Decision TheorySatisficingElimination by AspectsHeuristics and BiasesDeductive ReasoningConditional ReasoningInductive Reasoning. 1. Judgment and Decision Making. The objective of judgment and choice making is to choose from among decisions or to assess opportunities1. Traditional Decision TheoryBased on the supposition or rationalityPeople make their choic
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Basic leadership and Reasoning Chapter 12

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Outline Judgment and Decision Making Classical Decision Theory Satisficing Elimination by Aspects Heuristics and Biases Deductive Reasoning Conditional Reasoning Inductive Reasoning

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1. Judgment and Decision Making The objective of judgment and basic leadership is to choose from among decisions or to assess open doors 1. Traditional Decision Theory Based on the presumption or discernment People settle on their decisions to augment something of significant worth, whatever that something might be Mathematical models of human basic leadership Too limited, does not consider the mental cosmetics of every individual chief

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 1. Established Decision Theory Subjective expected utility hypothesis The objective of human activity is to look for delight and stay away from torment; in doing as such each of us uses counts of Subjective utility – in view of the individual\'s judged weightings of utility, instead of on target criteria Subjective likelihood – taking into account the individual\'s evaluations of probability, as opposed to on goal factual calculations

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 1. Established Decision Theory This hypothesis depends on the conviction that individuals look to achieve all around contemplated choices taking into account Consideration of all conceivable known choices Use of a most extreme measure of accessible data Careful weighing of expenses and advantages and count of likelihood A greatest level of sound thinking However, human basic leadership is more intricate than even this changed hypothesis suggests

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 2. Satisficing We people are not so much and vastly discerning in settling on choices Bounded judiciousness We are levelheaded, yet inside points of confinement Satisficing We don\'t consider every conceivable choice and after that precisely register which of the whole universe of alternatives will augment our increases and minimize our misfortunes Rather, we consider choices one by one, and afterward we select a choice when we discover one that is attractive or sufficiently great to meet our base level of worthiness

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 3. Disposal by Aspects We some of the time utilize an alternate methodology when confronted with much a larger number of options than we feel that we sensibly can consider in the time we have accessible Elimination by viewpoints We concentrate on one perspective (trait) of the different choices, and we frame a base rule for that angle We then dispense with all choices that don\'t meet that measure

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 4. Heuristics and Biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman People might be significantly more prone to settle on choices in light of inclinations and heuristics (alternate routes) than prior basic leadership research has recommended These mental easy routes relieve the intellectual burden of deciding, yet they likewise take into account a much more noteworthy possibility of blunder

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? Every one of the families having precisely six youngsters in a specific city were studied. In 72 of the families, the careful request of births of young men and young ladies was GBGBBG (G young lady; B kid). What is your evaluation of the quantity of families overviewed in which the definite request of births is BGBBBB?

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 4. Heuristics and Biases Representativeness When we utilize the heuristic of representativeness, in which we judge the likelihood of a questionable occasion as indicated by (1) how clearly it is like or illustrative of the populace from which it is determined (2) how much it mirrors the notable elements of the procedure by which it is produced Example on the past slide First birth request is thought to be more illustrative of the quantity of females and guys in the populace However, either birth request is similarly liable to happen by chance

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? Are there more words in the English dialect that start with the letter R or that have R as their third letter?

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? Ascertain in your mind the response to the accompanying issue: 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

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? Ascertain in your mind the response to the accompanying issue: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 4. Heuristics and Biases Availability We make judgments on the premise of how effectively we can bring to psyche what we see as significant occasions of a marvel (e.g. words starting with letter R) Anchoring-and-conformity heuristic People give a higher evaluation to the principal succession than for the second in light of the fact that their calculation for the stay – the initial couple of digits increased by each other – renders a higher appraisal from which they make a change in accordance with achieve a last gauge

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1. Judgment and Decision Making 4. Heuristics and Biases Overconfidence And individual\'s overvaluation of her or his own particular aptitudes, information, or judgments People tend to overestimate the precision of their judgments Example: When individuals were 100% sure about their answers, they were correct just 80% of the time

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2. Deductive Reasoning Proposition A statement, which might be either valid for false Premise Propositions about which contentions are made

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2. Deductive Reasoning 1. Contingent Reasoning The reasoner must make a determination in light of an if-then suggestion Deductive legitimacy Does not liken with truth You can achieve deductively legitimate conclusions that are totally untrue as for the world People are more probable erroneously to acknowledge a strange contention as intelligent if the conclusion is accurately valid

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2. Deductive Reasoning 1. Restrictive Reasoning Modus ponens The reasoner asserts the forerunner If p then q p q Modus tollens The reasoner denies the subsequent If p then q non q non p

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2. Deductive Reasoning 1. Restrictive Reasoning Deductive false notions Denying the precursor Affirming the ensuing Rather then utilizing formal surmising rules, individuals frequently utilize realistic thinking diagrams

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2. Deductive Reasoning 2. Syllogistic Reasoning Syllogisms Are deductive contentions that include reaching determinations from two premises All syllogisms contain a noteworthy reason, a minor reason, and a conclusion

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2. Deductive Reasoning 2. Syllogistic Reasoning Linear Syllogisms The relationship among the terms is direct, including a quantitative or subjective correlation Example You are more astute than your closest companion. Your closest companion is more quick witted than your flat mate. Which of you is the most intelligent?

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2. Deductive Reasoning 2. Syllogistic Reasoning Categorical Syllogisms Comprise of two premises and a conclusion The premises state something about the classification participations of the terms Example: All psychological analysts are piano players. All musicians are competitors. In this manner, every single intellectual clinician are competitors.

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3. Inductive Reasoning In inductive thinking, which depends on our perceptions, achieving any sensibly certain conclusion is unrealistic The most we can endeavor to reach is just a solid, or exceptionally likely, determination A key element of inductive thinking, which frames the premise of the observational strategy, is that we can\'t consistently jump from saying, " every single watched occasion to date of X are Y" to stating, "In this manner, all X are Y"; it is constantly conceivable that the following watched X won\'t be a Y

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3. Inductive Reasoning Causal derivations How individuals make judgments about whether causes something else Errors in inductive thinking Confirmation inclination Teachers frequently expect little of understudies when they think them low in capacity Causality in light of correlational proof alone We neglect to perceive numerous that numerous marvels have different causes

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3. Inductive Reasoning by similarity Example Fire is to asbestos as water is to Vinyl Air Cotton fixture

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