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For the benefit of the PR to WMO, Fran ois Jacq, M t o-France CEO ... M t o-France basically in WGNE exercises: Models execution and change, ideal utilization of ...
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A perspective from France Philippe Dandin Météo-France for the PR to WMO, François Jacq, Météo-France CEO & with profitable contributions from my partners from the exploration side WCRP JSC, Antalya, Feb. 2010

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Climat Climate research

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French gatherings required in WCRP exercises CERFACS… IPSL (LMD, LSCE, LOCEAN… )… Météo-France CNRM… Paris Bureau… Workshop Lille June 2010… Two French atmosphere models (CNRM & IPSL) in CMIP5 & CORDEX Projects… AMMA (Redelsberger, Lafore, Hourdin-AMMA-MIP), Concordiasi (Rabier)… Thorpex, Mediterranean zone: Hymex… WGCM (Bony), ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) cross-cut (Le Treut… )… Obs recreation (CFMIP Obs Simulator Package) (Calipso, EarthCare & "needs" tbd) (Chepfer, Bony, Planton… ) Model Intercomparison Projects collaborations: Paleoclimate PMIP (Braconnot) Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle C4MIP (Friedlingstein) Cloud Feedback CFMIP (Bony) Seasonal guaging, Decadal forecast (Cassou, Céron)

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Higher scores for AMMABC Lowest scores for NO AMMA: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis Better comprehend the components of the African storm and avert emotional circumstances (Redelsperger et al, 2006) Enhanced perceptions over West Africa 2006 (esp. Radiosonde system) Sustainability of the system stays testing AMMA : From the AMMA database AMMABC : AMMA + predisposition redress PreAMMA : With a 2005 system NOAMMA : No Radiosonde information F. Rabier (Météo-France, CNRM)

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Assimilation of dampness obs. over area Assimilation of AMSU-B Ch2 (150 GHz) & Ch 5 (183±7 GHz) over area, 45 days TCWV (EXP) - TCWV (CTL) TCWV (CTL) Karbou et al, 2009 F. Rabier (Météo-France, CNRM)

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Concordiasi. High-lat. absorption of IR sensors Assimilation of IASI & AIRS over polar territories (ocean ice and land) 72h 48h Blue: Positive effect of extra information 100 500 1000 50°S 80°S 50°S 80°S Comparison of RMSE for estimates at 48h & 72h Error (exp. with extra information AMSUA/B, AIRS, IASI) – Error (Control) IASI channels 167 (100hPa) Black spots: pixels absorbed in operations Color dabs (Tb): Assimilation of IASI over area & sea ice for high topping channels

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CNRM-CM5 for IPCC AR5 GHG Ozone chem. Environment ARPEGE-Climat T127L, L31 Surface SURFEX 24h OASIS Sea ice Run off TRIP Ocean NEMO 1°, L42 24h

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Interactive ozone in atmosphere reenactments The ozone opening in October in Antarctica (1990-1999 – 1950-1959) Positive input: Ozone consumption & nearby cooling Impact on the atmospherical elements (increasing speed of the vortex)

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Feedback to WCRP The French atmosphere gatherings are effectively participating to WCRP activities, e.g. CERFACS on decadal expectation (regular gauge framework augmentation) IPSL is in the majority of the WCRP bunches: ACC, paleo, cloud material science, satellite perceptions… Météo-France essentially in WGNE exercises: Models execution & change, ideal utilization of a wide range of perceptions (continuous & reanalysis) WCRP has a rich vision (challenges), numerous dynamic gatherings. A rich structure as well. Keep it basic & centered (& as coherent as the atmosphere framework can allow it… ) WGCM & WGNE co-ordinate MIPs & fortify science WCRP is augmenting the extent of such works (romanticized & operational cases). It\'s another heap for displaying bunches, & an equalization must be found. Météo-France Supports the consistent methodology, utilizes regular models both for operations & research, constant & atmosphere, Recalls that amazing reanalysis are critical for atmosphere inquire about, and prescribes that a solid backing is given to ECMWF endeavors, over and over.

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Climate administrations

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My difficulties (a CCl-like perspective?) WCRP & CCl to work nearer, and prepare each other Transition from clear climatology to atmosphere flow Variabilities, anthropogenic change… vulnerabilities… abilities… information quality… traceability… Especially as a result of the GFCS – yet not just, CCl/NMS as a middle of the road client/hand-off A requirement for a 2-way communication & shared backing between examination & operations. Transfert from science to operations & (savvy) utilization of science is a key test Climatology as a supplier for exploration, like never before basic Observation necessities and conveyance (GCOS, CCl) Rationale for the perception of the atmosphere & requirements of the atmosphere research group (measurements, standards, quality… supportability, spending plans… ). Thickness required for a 0.10°C/century? Satellite versus in situ? Future should be checked now… IPCC Chapt.7 Clouds & pressurized canned products? Hydrological cycle? Needs? Couple of different things e.g supporting Data Rescue and other "vagrant" endeavors Properly utilizing the rich yet refined accessible data How to utilize model/MME yields? How to manage vulnerabilities? To appropriately downscale? To restore the old tool compartment & information? Building up the aptitudes of the "middle of the road" clients, that need to give components portraying the present and future conditions of the atmosphere (homogeneization, vulnerabilities, basic leadership… ) Building the Climate Services, consolidating science mastery & adjusting + conveying items the way clients are utilized to.

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Let\'s repair climatology: The "old" (fundamental) way… Climate watch & investigation. Talking about atmosphere requires talking about the present atmosphere. Atmosphere & climate. A connection to clients & throughout the day life. Train the forecasters! Ex. The present icy wave What sort of occasion is it? (it\'s winter!) – variability? Change? Attempt to clarify. How? Why? At the point when? Whenever once more? Give a reference! A clarification? Shouldn\'t something be said about the following (or the no show of) warmth wave, snow, dry spell, wind, storm, typhoon…

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From depiction to elements & occasional estimating Variability modes & dissemination examples are now and again caught by atmosphere models (utilized for regular guaging). Now and then the conjecture miss the objective, in some cases they don\'t… Seasonal anticipating as the initial step to adjustment. What\'s more, the connection with the climate conjecture and clients. See Céron & Bessemoulin (joint tech conf) C. Cassou (CNRS-Cerfacs), 2008, Nature.

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What are Climate Services!? Our inquiries… The range of necessities is wide. Will we convey items? Will we reply? We need to. Return period for T in 2050? Survey of dimensioning standards? Should I take a choice now or sit tight for 10 years of advancement of atmosphere sciences? Clarify all that stuff? Is it valid? Is it worth? Enlighten me regarding these situations?! No blunder bar please. Science must be there, including "different sciences" as well. Is it practical, feasible? The many-sided quality needs a systemic methodology. Moderation is right now offered… Transition from science to administrations (& to court) requires more than simply creating. Clients look for direction in disarray & under weight Need for instructing, preparing & exchange (ought to have found out about climate reliance first… ) A move for limits in our organizations (and let the DNA develop!). Be that as it may, going into administrations is likewise a considerable measure of inconvenience (having clients can be a bad dream) Services? Operations? It\'s the point at which the telephone rings, and the speaker yells at you! What can the operational accomplice offer to research to straightforwardness life? Atmosphere administrations can be incompletely set up in the lee of the customary climatological ones This is a clear approach to meet the clients (designing) prerequisites The arrangements, instruments, substance, methods for conveying & overhauling are known A straightforward begin, a scaffold between the past & future

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DRIAS: An office for adjusting atmosphere items DRIAS : French Regional Climate information & items for Impact & Adaptation of our Society & Env. Météo-France + Climate labs (CERFACS, IPSL, CNRM) Aims : Give access to future atmosphere data with skill & direction (help the client!) Several GES, territorial models, downscaling techniques Standard arrangements & items Easy get to (the way clients are utilized to) Challenge : Reasonable industrialization of as of now customized made administrations An electronic conveyance framework (effectively utilized for conveying climatological & met items) An advantage for the atmosphere aggregates as well (vigorously stacked, from IPCC to… administrations)

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Thank you! Dr Philippe Dandin Météo-France Direction de la Climatologie philippe.dandin@meteo.fr

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