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El Ni ñ o Knowledge and Sustainable Development in the Pacific Rim A Usable Science Workshop facilitated by Michael H. Glantz NCAR (USA) Jose Luis Santos CIIFEN (Ecuador) and Puerto Ayora, Galapagos Islands, Ecuador 13-16 September 2004

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NCAR, CIIFEN, NSF, ISDR, NOAA, Galapagos National Park, Charles Darwin Foundation, WMO, IAI, UNESCO, IOC, and other taking an interest offices [WHO, UNDP, IRI, Exploratorium] Supporting backers & associations

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Coincidentally, this workshop is a 30 th commemoration workshop! December 1974 : Guayaquil Workshop on the Phenomenon known as "El Ni ñ o" Supported then by UNESCO, IOC, NSF and FAO Involved Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru Its Goals Identify inquiries to permit comprehension and expectation of El Ni ñ o Devise local helpful examination program Develop an arrangement to study El Ni ñ o-fisheries collaborations

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Monday, 13 September 8:30am – 9:30: Welcome to the workshop 9:30 – 10:00: Why we are here 10:00 – 10:30: Linking application to science; Linking science to application 10:30 – 11:00 Break 11:00 – 12:15pm: ENSO Science: El Niño & La Niña 12:15 – 2:00: Lunch 2:00 – 2:45: ENSO-related hotspots in the Pacific area 2:45 – 3:45: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Constraints (SWOC) Review 3:45 – 4:00 Break 4:00 – 4:45: Plenary dialog Tuesday, 14 September 8:30am – 9:15: El Niño estimate course: Hazards 9:15 – 10:00: El Niño gauge course: Health 10:00 – 10:45: El Niño conjecture course: Agriculture 10:45 – 11:15: Break 11:15 – 12:00pm: El Niño figure course: Fisheries 12:00 – 12:30pm: WCDR (World Conference on Disaster Reduction 2005) 12:30 - Lunch Free evening 5:30pm – 7:30: Galapagos Public Roundtable Wednesday, 15 September 8:30am – 9:15: Linking catastrophe decrease and development strategies 9:15 – 10:00: Are there Lessons to be taken in … from lessons officially learned? 10:00 – 10:30 Break 10:30 – 11:15: Media and early notices 11:15 – 12:00pm: Mid-workshop survey 12:00 – 2:00: Lunch 20:00 – 2:45: Vulnerability and flexibility 2:45 – 3:30 From Hurricane Fifi to Hurricane Mitch: A Example of Climate Affairs 3:30 – 4:00: Break 4:00 – 4:45: Climate change and the Pacific Rim Thursday, 16 September 8:30am – 9:00: Right-estimating El Niño early notices 9:00 – 9:45: Linking over the Pacific: Is the Pacific Ocean a hindrance or a scaffold? 10:30 – 11:00: Break 11:00 – 12:15pm: Where would it be advisable for us to go from here? 12:15pm: Adjourn 12:30 pm: Lunch El Ni ñ o Early Warning for Sustainable Development Agenda

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Participants\' Round-the-Table Introductions

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*Monday* 8:30am - 9:30am 13 September 2004 Welcome to the workshop and the Galapagos by Ecuador, GNP, CDRS, Puerto Ayora and the supporting organizations Around-the-table Introductions Opening Ceremony

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9:30am - 10:00am Why we are here To examine the thought of "El Ni ñ o Knowledge" To recognize the benefit of connecting between … Early cautioning and feasible improvement Disaster hazard decrease, reaction and advancement El Ni ñ o and atmosphere related risks (i.e., teleconnections) Identify El Ni ñ o data utilizes for advancement purposes Early cautioning viability: declarations versus activities The Asian side of the Pacific and the Western Hemisphere High-hazard divisions and portions of society To share encounters (counting lessons recognized at different areas and times)

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Knowledge: a couple of definitions the mental aftereffect of discernment and learning and thinking <www.cogsci.princeton.edu/cgi-receptacle/webwn> recalling of already learned material. This may include the review of an extensive variety of material, from particular actualities to finish hypotheses < www.edu.uleth.ca/courses/ed3604/conmc/glsry/glsry.html> data assessed and sorted out in the human personality with the goal that it can be utilized deliberately < www.aslib.co.uk/information/glossary.html> The aggregate or scope of what has been seen, found, or learned. <www.jfcom.mil/about/glossary.htm> Knowledge is data with direction for activity based upon understanding and experience. <www.itilpeople.com/Glossary/Glossary_k.htm> understanding the hugeness of data. <www.cio.gov.bc.ca/other/daf/IRM_Glossary.htm> the last objective of the comprehension in consolidating instincts and ideas < www.hkbu.edu.hk/~ppp/ksp1/KSPglos.html> It is disguised by the knower over a drawn out stretch of time, and fuses so highly gathered and inserted learning < www.ichnet.org/glossary.htm>

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Something to consider "I said that I wasn\'t smart. I was simply seeing how things were, and that wasn\'t smart. That was simply being attentive. Being sharp was the point at which you took a gander at how things are and utilized the confirmation to work out something new." (Mark Haddon, 2002)

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Expectations for Early Warning Systems What would it be advisable for us to anticipate from an early cautioning framework (EWS)? Buildup versus Trust in the utilization of an EWS Do we have to lower assumptions about what an EWS can accomplish for society or would it be a good idea for us to raise them?

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Shanghai Report: Brief Review (www.esig.ucar.edu/cautioning) Warning frameworks looks awesome on paper, however every one experiences issues with proficiency in its own particular manners. Crawling ecological changes require early cautioning in light of the fact that moderate onset incremental however total changes might be more exorbitant over the long haul than fast onset perils. Recognize what is attractive for a powerful early cautioning framework and what is key. Partners can give vital bits of knowledge into how notices may best be arranged and conveyed. EWSs should be dealt with as subsystems inserted in bigger financial and political frameworks… An EWS is imperative to a legislature to accomplish manageable advancement (SD. Indeed, SD prospects are extremely subject to the adequacy of different EWSs. A key media issue is that fiascos are media-accommodating while inching changes are most certainly not. The choice of pointers is critical in light of the fact that observing will focus on them. The wrong pointers can prompt squandered time, exertion, and assets. Marking down the estimation of data negatively affects the numerous lessons distinguished from the effects of past perils and debacles. Environmental change will add to the rundown of yet-obscure basic procedures that can influence dangers and societal defenselessness and versatility.

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10:00am - 10:30am Linking Application to Science Sustainable Development (www.un.org/esa/sustdev) "Sustainable improvement is advancement that addresses the issues of the present without trading off the capacity of future eras to address their own particular issues." * Indicators of maintainability differ from … definition to definition nation to nation division to area society to culture time to time [ World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987, p. 43 ]

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Linking Science to Application Why Sustainability Science? (www.earthethics.com/Sustainability%20Science.htm) Science needs "a on a very basic level diverse approach" if the objective of supportability is to be accomplished. Present day science could be portrayed as "islands of comprehension in seas of ignorance." Many natural issues are the "immediate consequence of applying thin particular learning to complex frameworks." Instead we have to work in reverse from undesirable results to distinguish pathways to evade these issues. "Researchers and professionals need to cooperate to create dependable information that consolidates exploratory greatness with social importance." {Prof. Ian Lowe, Australia, Interview, 27 June 2001, "Science in the News"}

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Searching for maintainability indicators at all levels Finnish arrangement of supportable improvement pointers (SDIs) Environmental and SDIs for Canada SDIs for the USA UK Government\'s center arrangement of markers of reasonable advancement SDIs for Wales SDIs for China SDIs for Sweden Scottish SDIs for Southeast Asia SDIs for urban water frameworks Gender and SDIs in the Mineral Industries Indicators of Sustainable Development for Estonia Jamaica Sustainable Development Network Program The APEC Development Network

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11:00am-12:15pm ENSO Science: El Ni ñ o & La Ni ñ an ENSO Science: What is El Niño? What are the markers? How dependable is estimating? How dependable are the models? Whose duty is it for a larger ENSO EWS? For the science, for the estimates, for correspondence among segments, for reactions, for oversight/audit, for responsibility?

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2:00pm - 2:45pm ENSO-related Hotspots in the Pacific Region What is a hotspot? What constitutes an El Ni ñ o-related "hotspot" in the Pacific? hot, more smoking, most blazing spots Hotspots can come about because of a solitary occasion or a blend of political, monetary ecological, wellbeing, demographic, meteorological, and social components, among others (e.g., complex natural emergencies)

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2:45 – 3:45pm Strengths, shortcomings, open doors and requirements (SWOC) of El Ni ñ o learning (counting figures) as early cautioning for maintainable improvement (SD) Participants isolate into two gatherings for the SWOC discourses Group A: recommend qualities & shortcomings Group B: distinguish open doors and limitations

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4:00 – 4:45pm Plenary dialog The SWOC evaluation for El Ni ñ o information (and estimates) as EW for SD in the Pacific area Group A - Strengths and Weaknesses Group B - Opportunities and Constraints

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*Tuesday* 8:30 – 9:15am El Ni ñ o gauge course : Hazards What are risks and danger related concerns? How comparable would they say they are from nation to nation? From East and Southeast Asia to South, Central and North America? How does El Ni ñ o generat

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