Engine Vehicle Viewpoint.


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Engine Vehicle Viewpoint Engine Vehicle Standpoint FTA Income Assessing Gathering Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Imprint Haas, Executive Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Financial expert Office of Income and Duty Investigation Branch of Treasury Condition of Michigan U. S. Car Standpoint
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Slide 1

Engine Vehicle Outlook Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Economist Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis Department of Treasury State of Michigan

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U. S. Car Outlook What Affects Auto Purchases Changing Auto Market Shares of Production U. S. Car Outlook

Slide 3

Factors Affecting Auto Sales Ability to Buy

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Real Disposable Income Growth Source: U.S. Agency of Economic Analysis

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New Domestic Car Prices Stable Import $30,347 (- 5.1%) Domestic $18,724 (0.8%) Sources: AAMA & Automotive News, Market Data Book 2000

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Low Interest Rates Help Sales 17.78% 7.84% Source: Comerica Bank

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Best Affordability Since 1980 24.4 weeks in 1999 23.1 weeks first half 2000 22.9 weeks in 1979 Source: Comerica Bank Economics Department

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Consumer Debt Payments Installment, Mortgage & Auto Leases 14.8% 2000 Source: Michigan Department of Treasury

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Factors Affecting Auto Sales Willingness to Buy

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Consumer Car Buying Attitudes 158 144 Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center, July 2000

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Vehicle Age Declining 1999 Median for Cars 8.3 years 1999 Median for Trucks 7.2 years Source: Automotive News, 1999 Market Data Book

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Vehicles Per Household 1.90 1.81 1.22

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Oil Prices Rising $35.24 $27.10 Source: Monthly Energy Review, Standard and Poor’s DRI

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More Dependent on Petroleum Imports Total 56.6% All-OPEC Persian Gulf Source: Monthly Energy Review

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Stock Market Growth Slows 1518 Aug-00

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Demand For Motor Vehicles Trend Wealth Effect Economic Conditions Price Incentives

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Vehicle Sales Trend Sales Trend Source: Michigan Department of Treasury

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Motor Vehicle Production Capacity Utilization Worker Bonuses Occupational Mix Changing Improved Vehicle Production Management Improved Vehicle Demand Management

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1999 Production and Capacity North America 111% 92% Source: Automotive News, 2000 Market Data Book

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Big 3 Profit Sharing Checks Daimler Chrysler $8,100 Ford $8,000 GM $1,775 Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports

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Occupation Mix Shifts in Michigan’s Vehicle Industry 21.8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Economy.Com

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Improved Vehicle Production Management 0.52 Source: Bureau of the Census

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Improved Vehicle Demand Management 35.7% 25.2% Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports , Economy.Com, WEFA

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2000 Forecast Accuracy

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Light Vehicle Forecasts

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U. S. Engine Vehicle Outlook Car and Light Truck Sales Forecast Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

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U. S. Engine Vehicle Outlook Car Sales Forecast Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

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U. S. Engine Vehicle Outlook Light Truck Sales Forecast Source: University of Michigan, RSQE, August 2000

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U. S. Engine Vehicle Outlook Summary Record Level Sales Vehicle Mix Continues to Shift Income and Affordability Key to Sales Near Capacity Production Oil Prices and Stock Market Uncertain

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Motor Vehicle Outlook Motor Vehicle Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Waterville Valley, New Hampshire September 25, 2000 Mark Haas, Director Jeffrey Guilfoyle, Economist Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis Department of Treasury State of Michigan

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