Extra Road Investments Needed to Support Oil & Gas Production and Distribution in North Dakota Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State UniversitySlide 2
Presentation Topics Overview of study and results Details of investigation Details of unpaved street examination Types of upgrades and examination strategies Details of cleared street examination Types of changes, expenses, and impacts Conclusions and dialogSlide 3
Study Overview Purpose: Forecast street speculation needs in oil and gas delivering regions of North Dakota throughout the following 20 years Objective: Quantify the extra ventures fundamental for effective year-round transportation for the oil business while giving explorers adequate roadway benefitSlide 4
Study Overview Scope: The attention is on streets possessed or kept up by nearby governments – e.g. areas and townships. Study Area: 17 oil and gas creating regions Counties include: Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, McHenry, McKenzie, Mclean, Mercer, Mountrail, Renville, Slope, Stark, Ward, and WilliamsSlide 5
Primary Data Sources Analysis in view of: oil creation gauges, activity information, region street reviews Types of streets investigated: cleared, graveled, and evaluated & depleted 2010 study → data on affected courses and conditions 2008 study → data on common street qualitiesSlide 6
Production Forecasting Oil &Gas Division of North Dakota Industrial Commission Existing and close term penetrating areas Based upon momentum fix action and allow applications through end of 2010 Future areas of apparatuses assessed from rent information from North Dakota Land DepartmentSlide 7
Drilling Phases Initial stage: rent lapses 2010-2015 Assume boring starts in conclusive year of rent Fill-in stage: 3-5 extra wells put Private leases will happen in same regions as open leases 21,250 wells bored in next 10-20 years Assume 1,500/year→14 years to bore 21,250 wellsSlide 8
Traffic Prediction Model Forecasted yield of wells is steered over street organize utilizing nitty gritty GIS display Oil developments changed over to equal truck trips taking after slightest cost courses Projected sources of info (e.g., sand and water) and outbound developments (salt water) correspondingly directed Movements of particular gear, (for example, workover rigs) includedSlide 9
Road Investment Analysis Predicted inbound and outbound developments amassed for each affected portion Oil-related excursions joined with pattern (non-oil) movement to gauge add up to movement stack on every street Economic/building strategies used to appraise extra venture needsSlide 10
Field Data: Traffic Counts Counters conveyed at 100 areas Raw information acclimated to speak to movement for 24-hour duration Monthly variety ADT=145; Trucks=61 (26 multi-units) Paved streets ≈ 100 trucks/day Data used to align trip model and gauge standard movement loadsSlide 11
Estimated Investment Needs 2012-2013 - 2030-2031 (Millions)Slide 12
Investment Needs by Biennium (Millions)Slide 13
Details of Analysis Data Collection Network Flow Modeling Unpaved Analysis Paved AnalysisSlide 14
Data Collection Roadway Data Traffic Classification Traffic Counts Condition Data Cost and Practices Data Oil Development Data Number and Locations of Wells Inputs to Production Origins and Destinations Production Output Origins and DestinationsSlide 15
Roadway Data Traffic Classification Maps sent to region go-to person with guidelines to arrange roadways by movement levels Used to recognize potential specimen activity tally locales Traffic Counts Selected utilizing the grouping information gave by the region go-to people Used to adjust the GIS organize directing model and to check vehicle order Photos were taken of huge numbers of the street fragments where counters were set, and used to confirm surface sort and condition informationSlide 16
Cost and Practices Data Survey of County Contacts Component costs - Unpaved Gravel Blading Location Delivery Placement Dust suppressant Paving costsSlide 17
Cost and Practices Data Survey of County Contacts Maintenance Practices Gravel Overlay Interval Gravel Overlay Thickness Blading Interval Dust Suppressant UsageSlide 18
Cost and Practices Data County Level Cost Calculations Due to the varieties in announced expenses and practices, unpaved expenses were computed at the district level Reflects genuine practices and real expenses at the season of the examinationSlide 19
Roadway Data Condition Data Maps were sent to the province go-to person with directions to characterize roadways by surface condition Specific characterization directions were given, per the South Dakota Pavement Condition Survey Guide 692 miles recorded as either poor or extremely poor conditionSlide 20
Oil Development Data Numbers and Locations of Wells Initial apparatus and well areas got from NDIC Oil & Gas Division site Forecasted areas assessed from ND Land Department GIS shapefiles of open land Leases for open grounds just Private land advancement thought to be in an indistinguishable geographic locale from the general population leases Buffer open terrains to gauge improvement regions on private landSlide 21
Oil Development Data Forecasted areas assessed from ND Land Department GIS shapefiles of open land leases ND Land Department information has rent termination dates Assumption that boring will happen in the last year of the rent, and is a solitary well Oil & Gas gauges 1,450-2,940 wells/year – 2,140 expected, 21,250 in 10 to 20 years Lease lapses accessible through 2015 Post 2015 – filling in period of boring 4-6 extra wells on the siteSlide 22
Oil Development Data Inputs Data gathered from Oil & Gas, NDDOT, and industry agents The objective was to measure the number and kind of truck outings that the well boring procedure creates The significant trek generators were water, hardware and sandSlide 23
Bakken Well InputsSlide 24
Oil Development Data Outputs Production (Oil & Gas) County normal IP rates Production bend and pipeline get to Saltwater creation Oil accumulation/transload locales (Oil & Gas) Current rundown of working oil gathering focuses Saltwater Disposal Sites (Oil & Gas) Current rundown of working SWD localesSlide 25
Network Flow Modeling Origins and Destinations OD Pairs Sand – Rig Freshwater –Rig Rig – Rig (Equipment) Supplies (compound, pipe, concrete, fuel, and so on.) – Rig - SWD Rig – Collection Point Assignment of Pairs Closest goal picked Routing depends on the minimum cost way amongst cause and goalSlide 26
Network Flow Modeling Scenarios Baseline – Summer 2010 June Oil Sales Existing Well and Rig Locations Network Development and RefinementSlide 27
Network Flow Modeling Forecast Flows 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016-2020, 2021-2025, 2026-2030 Associated Volumes Inputs (Water, Sand, Equipment, and so on.) Output (Oil and SWD) Model Forecasted Traffic Movements Generate Volume Estimates for Individual Roadway SegmentsSlide 28
Unpaved Road Analysis Estimation of the extra upkeep and change exercises because of oil improvement Impacted Miles: 11,834 rock, 884 evaluated & depletedSlide 29
Unpaved RoadsSlide 30
Unpaved Roads Impacted implies that no less than one oil related truck was steered over the segment in the system stream demonstrate Impacts and needs shift by movement levels Impact Classification Low: 0-25 (10,930 miles) Elevated: 25-50 (1,094 miles) Moderate: 50-100 (409 miles) High: 100+ (284 miles)Slide 31
Unpaved Roads Improvement Types Graded and Drained Low: No extra enhancements Elevated: Maintenance increment Moderate: Upgrade to rock roadway (reproduce) High: Upgrade to rock roadway (recreate) Roadway Width Initial state of evaluated and depleted streets are regularly insufficient regarding roadway width Reconstruction incorporates regrading the street, and option of width to at least 24 feet with rock overlaySlide 32
Unpaved Roads Improvement Types Gravel Low: Decrease blading interim Elevated: Decrease rock interim by 33% (3-4 years) Moderate: Decrease rock interim by half (2-3 years) High: Upgrade to twofold chip seal surface Additional Enhancements/Improvements Dust Suppressant Reconstruction to wipe out inadequacies – roadway width and basic lacksSlide 33
Unpaved Roads Chip Seal Improvement Single Chip Seal Constructed from a solitary use of cover took after by a solitary utilization of consistently reviewed total Selected for ordinary circumstances where no unique contemplations would show that an exceptional sort of chip seal is justified Source: TRB: Chip Seal Best PracticesSlide 34
Unpaved Roads Chip Seal Improvement Double Chip Seal Constructed from two back to back uses of both the bituminous folio took after by a solitary use of consistently evaluated total Double chip seals have less commotion from activity, give extra waterproofing, and a more powerful seal in correlation with a solitary chip seal Used in high anxiety circumstances, for example, zones that have a high rate of truck activity or soak levels Source: TRB: Chip Seal Best PracticesSlide 37
Key Factors: Paved Road Analysis Thickness of total base and black-top surface layers Condition (degree of crumbling) Graded width Soil bolster (spring load limitations) Truck weights and pivot setups Volume of oil-related activity and different trucksSlide 38
Paved Road Thickness (Inches) Medium-plan: 4" AC, 8" Aggregate Base, 8" SubbaseSlide 39
Paved Road Conditions 68 miles in poor or extremely poor condition Experiencing overwhelming oil-related activity Cannot be cost-viably reemerged Must be remade 334 miles in reasonable condi
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