February 3, 2006.


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S jumping Focuses in Puerto Rico Difficulties and Opportunities 2006-2010 Global Chamber of Strip malls February 3, 2006 The Puerto Rican Mystery An island that measures 100 x 35 miles Populace of 3.9 million individuals Unemployment rate of 11% Wage for every capita is 1/3 of US
Transcripts
Slide 1

S jumping Centers in Puerto Rico Challenges and Opportunities 2006-2010 International Council of Shopping Centers February 3, 2006

Slide 2

The Puerto Rican Paradox An island that measures 100 x 35 miles Population of 3.9 million individuals Unemployment rate of 11% Income for each capita is 1/3 of US Average deals per square foot in PR shopping centers is 23% > US

Slide 3

World – prestigious retailers have their most noteworthy income stores in PR JC Penney Sears Office Max Western Auto Pep Boys Blockbuster Video Taco Maker

Slide 4

Natural Systems in Puerto Rico

Slide 5

Main Shopping Centers in Puerto Rico, 2005

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Location of Top Shopping Centers 365,125 Plaza Guayama Centro Gran Caribe Norte y Sur 420,000 San Juan (2) 436,440 Plaza Palma Real Carolina (3) Mayagã¼ez (2) 450,000 Ponce Towne Center (Ponce 2000) Caguas (2) 450,000 Rexville Towne Center Santa Rosa Mall 465,667 Ponce (2) Hatillo (1) Plaza Rio Hondo 500,000 Bayamã³n (4) San Patricio Plaza 520,597 Guaynabo (1) Western Plaza 550,000 600,000 Humacao (1) Montehiedra Town Center Vega Baja (1) Las Catalinas Mall 600,000 Guayama (1) 600,900 Plaza Escorial Plaza del Sol 670,180 670,218 Plaza del Norte Plaza del Caribe 683,000 Los Colobos Shopping Center 800,200 Plaza Centro Mall 980,000 Mayagã¼ez Mall 1,100,000 Plaza Carolina 1,124,000 2,358,000 Plaza Las Amã©ricas Top 20 Shopping Centers in Puerto Rico (by square footage)

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12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% - 2.00% - 4.00% Puerto Rico’s Economy: Historic Growth Historic Average: 4.1% 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

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Per Capita Income 2000-2005 45,000 40,100 40,000 2000 34,897 35,000 2005 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 12,947 10,877 10,000 5,000 - Puerto Rico U.S.A.

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48.2% half 40% 30% 20% 12.4% 10% 0% Puerto Rico U.S.A. Families under Poverty Level – 2000

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$500 $400 $350 $285 $300 $200 $100 $0 Puerto Rico U.S.A. 2000 2003 Shopping Centers – Sales per square foot

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25% 23.3% 20% 17.6% 16.7% 15.6% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1984 1992 1997 2003 Puerto Rico – Underground Economy Estimates

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47.5% 47.0% 46.5% 46.2% 45.9% 46.0% 45.4% 45.5% 45.0% 44.5% 1990 1995 2000 2005 Labor Force Participation Rate

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Total Employment (000) 1,238 1,240 2.6% 1,230 1,220 1,210 1,206 1,200 1,190 1,180 2004 2005 155 156 154 152 150 147 148 146 144 142 2004 2005 Employment July – February FY 2004 and 2005 Unemployment (000)

Slide 14

Employment in Puerto Rico by Major Industrial Sector 6.8% 11.2% Manufacturing 6.9% Construction 22.6% Trade Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 21.2% Services Government 3.6% 27.7% Others

Slide 15

210,000 205,099 205,000 200,000 195,000 187,621 190,000 185,000 180,000 175,000 2004 2005 68.8 69 68 67.7 68 67 2004 2005 Tourism July – February FY 2004 and 2005 * Tourism is more or less 6% of GNP. Inns Registration Occupancy Rates

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1,600,000 1,546,529.5 1,550,000 1,500,000 1,433,402.7 1,450,000 1,400,000 1,350,000 2004 2005 Retail Sales FY 2004 and 2005 Retail Sales (000) 8.0%

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Retail Sales Growth by Retailers FY 2005 versus 2004 Sales In Department 8.2% Stores Sales in Shoe Stores 4.2% Sales in Furniture Stores 5.4% Miscellaneous and 7.1% Articles Stores Ladies Apparel Stores 5.7% Sales in Jewelry Stores 7.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

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Sales in Supermarkets 8.2% Sales in Drugstores 7.1% Sales in Restaurants & 4.4% Cafeterias Sales Hardware & 6.4% Construction Material Sales in Gas Station 11.5% - 17.5% General Merchandise Stores - 20.0% - 15.0% - 10.0% - 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Retail Sales Growth by Retailers FY 2005 versus 2004

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Personal Consumption Expenditures 13.5% 14.1% 6.9% 6.7% 3.2% 15.2% 12.3% 11.1% 17.1% Food Clothing and extras Housing Household operations Medical consideration and memorial service costs Transportation Education Business administrations Others

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Value of development grants ($000) 0.1% 245,500 245,400 245,300 245,200 245,100 245,000 244,900 2004 2005 Number of development licenses Cement Sales In Puerto Rico Total (94 lbs packs) - 3.1% 840 4,500 4,000 830 3,500 820 3,000 2,500 810 2,000 800 1,500 1,000 790 2004 2005 Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2005 2004 Construction FY 2004 and 2005

Slide 21

Demand for Housing Sales Distribution 2005-2009 Housing evaluated over $300,000 is 11% of the aggregate. Social enthusiasm lodging is about half of aggregate interest. Units From To % 0 90,000 51,896 52.0% 91,000 180,000 19,410 19.4% 181,000 300,000 17,252 17.3% 301,000 480,000 10,051 10.1% 481,000 600,000 898 0.9% 601,000 294 0.3% or more 99,800 100.0% Median Price Median Price Total $85,278 IN-MARKET $196,661

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Active Residential Projects

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20,000 17,911 17,419 18,000 15,636 16,000 14,891 14,376 14,236 13,770 14,000 13,237 13,200 12,000 10,797 10,000 7,952 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Personal Bankruptcies FY 2004 and 2005

Slide 24

Growth of Merchandise Exports in financial years 2003 through 2005 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.0% - 0.2% 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 - 2.0% Manufacturing Employment Annual Growth for monetary years 2003 through 2005 0.0% - 0.5% - 1.0% - 1.5% - 2.0% - 2.5% - 3.0% - 3.5% - 4.0% - 4.5% - 5.0% 2003 2004 2005 Manufacturing keeps on growwing at a moderate pace. Job in the part is declining, yet yield, as demonstrated by stock fares, is developing at around 2.7% every year. This pattern is required to proceed in the close term.

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12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1 2 3 INFLATION Annual Change of Consumer Price Index 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% INFLATION Annual Change in Costs of Private Transportation 2.0% 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 Inflation has risen forcefully in the previous twelve months, inferable from the ascent in vitality costs. The standpoint is for swelling to subside quickly once oil costs begin to retreat. Inside of three years, swelling ought to be generally the same as in the United States, or around 3% every year.

Slide 26

GDP Gross Domestic Product by major modern part 2004 42.9% 0.5% 2.2% 6.7% 9.3% 12.1% 9.9% 16.4% Agriculture Manufacturing Contract development and mining Transportation and other open utilities Trade Finance, protection and land Services Government

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24.3% 20.3% 32.0% 6.5% 0.8% 6.3% 3.8% 3.5% 0.9% 1.6% Consumer Debt Consumer Debt 2004 Commercial Banks Installment Sale Companies Local Credit and Savings Unions PR Commonwealth Employees‘ Association Small Personal Loans Companies Pension Public Funds Revolving charge cards and conceded portions Federal Credit and Savings Unions Insurance Companies Student Loan Marketing Association Total customer obligation is pretty nearly 42% of Personal Income

Slide 28

Fiscal Situation in Puerto Rico Structural shortfall around $1.3 billion = 2.6% of GNP Extraordinary development out in the open consumption “Diminishing” salary charge framework “Unhealthy” financing of the monetary allowance Downgrading by credit arranging offices Governor’s ventures Short term > move measures Medium and Long Term > Fiscal Reform Disconnection Executive/Legislature

Slide 29

12,000 10,098 9,804 9,742 10,000 9,041 8,528 8,057 7,966 8,000 7,364 7,077 6,519 5,912 6,000 4,000 2,000 - 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Changes in the Economic Context Total Transfers Federal Government

Slide 30

Real GNP Growth –Fiscal Years 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% Risk 2.0% 1.5% Base 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 0.5% 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004 2003 Short Run Prospects

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2005 2020 >75 70-74 65-69 80+ 60-64 75-79 70-74 55-59 65-69 50-54 60-64 45-49 55-59 40-44 50-54 35-39 45-49 30-34 40-44 25-29 35-39 20-24 30-34 15-19 25-29 10-14 20-24 5-9 15-19 0-4 10-14 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 5-9 0-4 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 The Demographic Dimension Age Composition of the Population 1990 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Slide 32

Internet Incidence in Puerto Rico Internet access in 2005 is 33% among persons 12+ ( 1,016,500) Access to Internet 32.9% No entrance to Internet 67.1%

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Internet Incidence by Educational Level 120% 100.0% 100% 85.7% 80% 60% 54.3% 52.6% 40% 35.9% 26.9% 20.0% 20% 9.5% 0% Eight or less High school level High school Associate College level Undergraduate Masters degree Doctoral degree graduate degree

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Internet Incidence by Family Income The media wage of Internet clients is $26,818 when contrasted with the all inclusive community ($16,543) 100% 92% 90% 78% 80% 70% 60% 55% half 44% 40% 30% 18% 20% 10% 0% Less than $15,000 to $30,000 to $49,000 $50,000 to $74,000 $75,000 or more

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Persons Shopping Via Internet Yes 43.3% No 56.7%

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45.0% 41.9% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 16.9% 15.0% 10.0% 7.3% 6.2% 5.0% 2.7% 0.0% Less than $100-$499 $500-$999 $1,000 - $1,999 $2,000 - $2,999 $3,000+ Annual Internet Shopping Expend

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