Finishing the Journey of Moore s Law .


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Completing the Journey of Moore’s Law. SOS8 Erik P. DeBenedictis Sandia National Laboratories. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
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Slide 1

Finishing the Journey of Moore\'s Law SOS8 Erik P. DeBenedictis Sandia National Laboratories Sandia is a multiprogram research facility worked by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

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Simulation of ground movement because of quakes can be helpful in choosing where it is protected to assemble structures Until accessible information can be broke down, there will be pointless death toll and property Required figure control for adequate investigation of existing information: 1 Exaflops Example Application: Earthquake Mitigation Simulations of ground movement in the Los Angeles bowl based upon the ghostly component strategy, Dimitri Komatitsch, Qinya Liu, Jeroen Tromp, Peter Süss, Christiane Stidham and John H. Shaw, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 94, number 1, in press (2004)

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Earthquake Risk Mitigation Algorithms: Written Code: Runs Input Data: Exists Consequence of Not Proceeding: People Die Required FLOPS: 1E = 1000P = 1,000,000T 25,000  Earth Simulator Notes: Don\'t utilize a number, for fear that you achieve it and need to retreat. Pick targets that have advantage to society. Recount tale about Japanese. Evaluated HECRTF, NAS Study, NASA record, Petaflops I & II, IHEC, ASCI.

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Limits for a Red Storm-Sized Computer Best-Case Logic Microprocessor Architecture Physical Factor Source of Authority Landauer restrain 500KW/(k B T log e 2) Esteemed physicists 2.5  10 26 operations/s Derate 20,000 change over rationale operations to gliding point Properties of twofold exactness coasting point 12.5 Z etaflops Derate confine 150 to accomplish e - 100 blunder rate Current rationale circuit properties Expert Opinion 100 Exaflops 800 Petaflops Derate for assembling edge (4  ) Estimate 25 Exaflops 200 Petaflops Uncertainty (6  ) Gap in diagram 4 Exaflops 32 Petaflops Improved gadgets (4  ) Estimate 1 Exaflops 8 Petaflops Projected ITRS change to 22 nm (100  ) ITRS panel of specialists Assumption: Supercomputer devours 2 MW divider control = 500 KW to chips 80 Teraflops Lower supply voltage (2  ) ITRS council of specialists 40 Teraflops Red Storm contract

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FM Radio and End of Moore\'s Law Distance Driving far from FM transmitter less flag Noise from electrons  no change Shrink Increasing quantities of entryways less flag control Noise from electrons  no change

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Performance Potentials of Supercomputing Quantum Computing Reversible Logic Current Strategy: Follow Moore\'s Law Indefinitely Irreversible Logic Current Machines 2004 2016 Year

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Conclusions When we investigate the fate of supercomputing We see some dimness, yet the end of the street is getting to be unmistakable through the murkiness Knowing the end of the street helps now What applications would it be a good idea for us to foresee unraveling? Some product composed today will keep running on end-of-street supercomputers. What models will/won\'t be around? Different streets take after

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