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Fossil Fuel Use, Resources and Global Warming.


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Fossil Fuel Use, Resources and Global Warming Dennis Silverman Physics and Astronomy U C Irvine www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/resources.ppt October 7, 2005 Our Energy Future Future of Fossil Fuels Use and Resources Global Warming I. Future of Fossil Fuels Petroleum Natural Gas Coal
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Fossil Fuel Use, Resources and Global Warming Dennis Silverman Physics and Astronomy U C Irvine www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/resources.ppt October 7, 2005

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Our Energy Future of Fossil Fuels Use and Resources Global Warming

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I. Fate of Fossil Fuels Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Oil Shale and Tar Sands CO 2 Emissions

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U.S. 20 Year Projections of Energy Use in Quads (U.S. Utilizes 100 Quads/year)

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Petroleum Fuel Future US oil creation topped around 1970. US vitality utilization is expanding at 1.5% a year. The US at present imports 60% of its oil. Demonstrated aggregate world oil assets spoke the truth 2,000 billion About 800 billion of this has as of now been utilized. More revelation and expanding recuperation to half from 30% may help this to 3,000 billion barrels absolute. At the top the value rises steeply and utilization must level off, maybe prompting subsidence. Be that as it may, we may see a level, long top where costs rise, getting new oil assets to keep creation level, with effectiveness and protection setting into hold request level to an altered supply. It is improbable that real interest in refineries and tankers would be made just 10 years before a sharp decrease, again prompting a level. The year of a “peak” is then unessential, however the creation level is critical.

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Peaking of World Oil Production Hirsch Report: Feb. 2005

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World Oil Growth and Decline - Pessimistic 2,000 Bbl assets (1,000 Bbl hold)

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Optimistic 3,000 Bbls of oil aggregate assets. US Geological Survey

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U. S. Oil Sources (U.S. 35%, 65% transported in, including 33% from OPEC). Guide indicates percent of imports.

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US and World Natural Gas US request development is 3% every year. A lack now exists in the US and arrangements for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals for imports exist around the nation (Ventura, Long Beach, Baja California, and up to 40 locales across the country). The Federal Government needs the last say on permitting siting of these terminals. LNG could develop from 1% now to 20% by 2020. The charts are for the time the supply will last . The lighter shading is more outlandish than the darker part.

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Natural Gas Physics Today, July 2004, by Paul B. Weisz.

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Total stores, with regular gas saves in equal billion barrels of oil (bbl). World oil utilization is 30 bbl/year. Forgotten Canadian tar sands at 179 bbl oil. US has 22 bbl oil, and produces 2.0 bbl/year and would last just 11 years. World Oil and Natural Gas Reserves

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US Coal Supply The aggregate US coal store is 5700 Quads. The present rate of utilization speaks the truth 20 Quads for each year. Populace development will diminish its life span of 250 years with no development Conversion to engine fuel utilizes 2 Quads of coal to create 1 Quad of fuel in addition to the extra CO2 discharge. Change to hydrogen fuel uses significantly more. The chart accept 54% of underground coal is recoverable. Appraisals are for different development rates of utilization.

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US Coal Lifetime

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World Coal Reserves

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Fossil Fuel Future Summary Oil, Natural Gas, Shale Oil, and Coal produce CO 2. Carbon sequestration requires an additional 30% of force and needs scrutinize. FutureGen $1 billion exploration plant. Oil is required for transportation fuel Too lavish for power era Total world store of oil is a huge inquiry, utilizes politically inspired assessments of individual nations and industry insider facts Reserves: About 50 years with development being used 2/3 is in the Middle East Coal may most recent 100 years with development in utilization, however just 70 years if incompletely changed over to supplant oil Current rate of utilization of fossil energizes will increment overall U S proposed atmosphere innovation program

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Short Term Optimum The most ideal approach to hold down CO2 increments is to expel fossil fills from power era, yet simply utilize gas for transportation and normal gas for warming. Since ½ of US power originates from coal which creates twice as much CO2 per vitality unit as does normal gas, we ought to change to common gas. This, be that as it may, includes huge imports. We need increments in exchange vitality sources, for example, hydro, atomic, wind and sun based. On the other hand, coal and LNG will be less expensive than atomic so a penance is needed here. Sunlight based cells are exceptionally extravagant. Direct sun oriented water warming is a great deal more proficient. We likewise need increments in vitality productivity and protection. This particularly incorporates high mileage vehicles.

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Comparative Projected Vehicle Fuel Economies

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II Global Warming Effects Predicted Global Warming of 5°F will influence everybody in most basic parts of society and in their expenses. We don’t acknowledge how our present lodging, business, and supply nets are firmly adjusted to our present atmospheres. The real increment in temperature and atmosphere impacts, for example, precipitation, dry season, surges, tempests, and water supply, will influence family unit and business protection, warming and cooling vitality, and cultivating. These may oblige substantial and expensive changes. Some present chilly territories may advantage, and some hot regions will get to be unfarmable and immoderate to possess. It is extremely deceptive to depict the issue as an absolutely earthy person issue which influences just polar bears, a couple of Pacific islanders, and butterflies .

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Global Temperature Record: Unusual 1â° F Rise in the Last Century

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700 The most recent 160,000 years (from ice centers) and the following 100 years: temperature (red) tracks CO 2 (green). CO 2 in 2100 (with the same old thing) 600 Double pre-mechanical CO 2 Time (a great many years) 500 Lowest conceivable CO 2 adjustment level by 2100 400 CO 2 focus (ppm) CO 2 now 300 10 Temperature distinction from now °C 200 0 –10 100 160 120 80 40 Now

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CO2 Production Rate Pre-modern 275 ppm CO2 will be multiplied to 550 ppm by adding 200 ppm to the present 350 ppm. Present smoldering of 360 Quads of fossil fuel every year can build CO2 by 3.4 ppm every year. In this way 200 ppm will be included by 60 years, or sooner if fuel utilization increments. Atmosphere models have a mean forecast of an expanded temperature of 5â° F for this multiplying of CO2.

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Comparison of CO2 Doubling to Fossil Fuel Reserves 360 Quads more than 60 years is 22,000 Quads, which would twofold pre-mechanical CO2 Tripling CO2 will require another 30,000 Quads Summary of assessed fossil powers: 23,000 Quads world coal 10,000 Quads regular gas 6,000 – 12,000 Quads oil (6,000+ conceivable tar sands, oil shale, contingent upon expense) Total 40,000 – 50,000 Quads of fossil fuel accessible. Overlooking Carbon retention, smoldering all fossil fuel can prompt tripling pre-mechanical CO2. To stop at multiplied CO2, we must utilize close to a large portion of accessible fossil fills.

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Allocating Carbon Use Fees Just as we have a gas assessment to pay for streets, carbon charges ought to be connected to pay for the aggregate expense of fossil powers. This is one fundamental approach to cutoff carbon generation beneath the utilization of every fossil fuel. The expenses incorporate that of securing vitality sources, or vitality wars, that may get more extreme as the worth and rivalry for vitality increments. As such, the Iraq war has been allotted $200 billion. There was additionally the 90s retaking of Kuwait. The expenses ought to likewise incorporate U.S. furthermore, remote harms from an unnatural weather change. While the New Orleans and Gulf Coast flooding may not be because of an Earth-wide temperature boost this time, there may be comparative harms later on from an Earth-wide temperature boost. There is additionally the moving of the Inuit towns from ocean level ascent. What's more, we expect future natural and yield harm and migrations. We pay for the vitality security expenses and enormous harms in any case. By utilizing carbon charges, we demoralize inefficient employments of fossil fuel and support protection, while pointing out the full cost of these powers contrasted with renewable assets which must supplant them.

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Comparative World CO2 Emissions The US transmits 25% of World CO2

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Global Warming Scenario Greenhouse gasses: CO 2 , methane, and nitrous oxide Already warm world to normal 60ⰠF, as opposed to 0ⰠF without an air The present radiation lopsidedness will bring about another 1ⰠF warming by 2050, even without more nursery gas emanations. Late cleaning of air is bringing on the earth ’ s surface to be more sizzling and brighter. Balancing out the measure of CO 2 would oblige a diminishment to just 5% to 10% of present fossil fuel outflows

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Effects of the Doubling of CO 2 Doubling of CO2 anticipated by end of century, bringing on ~ roughly a 5â° F increment in normal temperature (most quick change in more than 10,000 years) ~2-3 foot ocean level ascent More tempests and fiercer ones as outlined by Atlantic typhoons this previous year with 5â° F more smoking Caribbean ocean temperatures Loss of coral reefs Increase in tropical maladies since no winter coolness to murder creepy crawlies 25% decrease in species that can't move living extents Possible evacuation of Gulf Stream, creating ice age in Northern Europe Warming anticipated that would be more prominent over area Hot territories expect more noteworthy vanishing from more sizzling winds, along these lines bringing about dry spell Lower warming expenses in winter, more ventilating expenses in summer

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Global Warming Effects Global Warming is a normal measure Local warming or atmosphere vacillations can be extremely huge Arctic is 5Ⱐhotter Ice top is ½ the thickness of 30 years prior Antarctic is 5Ⱐhotter Ice racks over the ocean are dissolving and severing and may permit the 10,000 foot thick ice sheet over Antarctica to slide off the landmass speedier This would bring about an ocean level ascent A similar to nearby impact is that while ozone is influenced all over the place, there is a more serious occasional ozone opening over Antarctica Rainfall is difficult to foresee. It could be expanded or diminish