Frameworks Thinking, System Dynamics, Simulation James R. Copies Summer 2009Slide 2
Course Content Structure—see Syllabus Systems Thinking System Dynamics Continuous Deterministic Simulation VENSIM Goldratt Discrete Stochastic Simulation PROMODELSlide 3
Our site http://burns.ba.ttu.edu/ba_7000.htmSlide 4
Goals of this course… To take in Senge\'s five orders How to fabricate a learning association How to challenge mental models Master the seven laws of frameworks intuition Understand the guideline of use To take in the nuts and bolts of causal displaying known as Causal Loop Diagramming, CLDSlide 5
Senge\'s Five Disciplines Personal Mastery since we should be the absolute best we can be Mental Models in light of the fact that these are the premise of all basic leadership Shared Vision since this electrifies specialists to seek after a shared objective Team Learning since organizations are sorted out into groups Systems Thinking since this is apparatus for adapting to many-sided qualitySlide 6
More Goals of this course… . To figure out how exchange CLD\'s to Stock & Flow Diagrams, SFDs To figure out how to execute SFD\'s in VENSIM To figure out how to parameterize a VENSIM model To figure out how to approve a VENSIM model To figure out how to lead imagine a scenario in which investigations To do affectability considersSlide 7
How do these objectives adjust to your… objectives for the course desires for the course when all is said in done.Slide 8
Would you get a kick out of the chance to … . find out about the Archetypes figure out how to perceive and apply the ArchetypesSlide 9
What sorts of procedures, frameworks? Flow of charm Agricultural procedures Project administration Enronitus Growth and over-speculation WHAT ELSE? Extend proposition is expected July 9 (Friday)Slide 10
Requirements for Completion Midterm worth 30% Final worth 30% Homework worth 10% Term extend worth 20% Presentation worth 5% Class support worth 5%Slide 11
Pace More casual No ties Driven more by the necessities of the understudiesSlide 12
Grades??!! In the event that you palatably total all the work required in this course, you will get no less than a B My certification If you hand over unsuitable work, I will request that you re-try it To get an A you should have a course review over 89.999Slide 13
Term Project You get the opportunity to pick the subject Topic is expected on 7-9 Will request that you hand over as homework your Causal circle graph Stock-and-stream outlineSlide 14
Definitions and Terms ST- - Systems Thinking SD- - Systems Dynamics CLD- - Causal Loop Diagram BOT- - Behavior Over Time Chart SFD- - Stock & Flow Diagram Also called Forrester Schematic, or basically "Stream Diagram" amount - any factor, parameter, consistent, or yield edge- - a causal connection between amountsSlide 15
Senge\'s Five Disciplines Personal Mastery since we should be the absolute best we can be Mental Models on the grounds that these are the premise of all basic leadership Shared Vision since this arouses laborers to seek after a shared objective Team Learning since organizations are sorted out into groups Systems Thinking since this is instrument for adapting to multifaceted natureSlide 16
System Dynamics Software STELLA and I think High Performance Systems, Inc. best fit for K-12 training Vensim Ventana Systems, Inc. Free from downloading off their site: www.vensim.com Robust- - including parametric information fitting and advancement best fit for advanced education PowerSim What Arthur Andersen is utilizingSlide 17
What is framework flow? An approach to portray frameworks as stocks and streams between Stocks are factors that gather the effects of different factors Rates are factors the control the streams of material into and out of stocks Auxiliaries are factors the change data as it is passed from stocks to ratesSlide 18
A Simple Methodology Collect information on the issue List factors on post-it notes Describe causality utilizing a CLD Translate CLD into SFD Enter into VENSIM Perform affectability and approval contemplates Perform strategy and WHAT IF tests Write suggestionsSlide 19
Causal Modeling An approach to portray the physical science of the framework Lacking: a Newton to depict the causality in these financial frameworksSlide 20
Key Benefits of the ST/SD A more profound level of learning Far superior to a unimportant verbal portrayal A reasonable basic portrayal of the issue or process An approach to remove the behavioral ramifications from the structure and information A "hands on" device on which to lead WHAT IFSlide 21
Reinforcing Loop: StructureSlide 22
Reinforcing Loop: BehaviorSlide 23
Balancing Loop: StructureSlide 24
Balancing Loop: BehaviorSlide 25
Stock and Flow Notation- - Quantities STOCK RATE AuxiliarySlide 26
Stock and Flow Notation- - Quantities Input/Parameter/Lookup Have no edges coordinated toward them Output Have no edges coordinated far from themSlide 27
Inputs and Outputs Inputs Parameters Lookups OutputsSlide 28
Stock and Flow Notation- - edges Information FlowSlide 29
Some principles for making an interpretation of CLD\'s into SFD\'s There are two sorts of causal connections in causal models (yet we don\'t recognize them) Information Flow Information continues from stocks and parameters/contributions toward rates where it is utilized to control streams Flow edges continue from rates to states (stocks) in the causal chart dependablySlide 30
Systems Thinking fundamentals Having built up two essential circle sorts—fortifying and adjusting—given us a chance to continue to a talk of prime examples Archetypes utilize the essential strengthening and adjusting circlesSlide 31
Nature\'s Templates: the Archetypes Structures of which we are unconscious hold us detainee The swimmer situation Certain examples of structure happen over and over: called ARCHETYPESSlide 32
We are making a "dialect" fortifying criticism and adjusting input resemble the things and verbs frameworks originals are the fundamental sentences Certain conduct designs show up again in all orders - science, brain research, family treatment, financial matters, political science, environment and administration Can bring about the unification of learning over all fieldsSlide 33
Recurring conduct designs Do we know how to remember them? Do we know how to portray them? Do we know how to endorse cures for them? The ARCHETYPES depict these repeating conduct designsSlide 34
The ARCHETYPES Provide use focuses, intercession crossroads at which considerable change can be achieved Put the frameworks viewpoint into practice About twelve frameworks ARCHETYPES have been recognized All ARCHETYPES are comprised of the frameworks building squares: fortifying procedures, adjusting forms, delaysSlide 35
As specified, before assaulting the ARCHETYPES we have to comprehend basic structures The strengthening criticism circle The adjusting input circleSlide 36
ARCHETYPE 1: LIMITS TO GROWTH A fortifying procedure is gotten under way to deliver a coveted outcome. It makes a winding of achievement additionally makes accidental optional impacts (showed in an adjusting procedure) that inevitably back off the achievement. All development will in the long run keep running up against limitations, hindrancesSlide 37
Management Principle with respect to ARCHETYPE 1 Don\'t push development or accomplishment; rather, evacuate the elements constraining developmentSlide 38
ARCHETYPE 1: LIMITS TO GROWTH Useful in all circumstances where development knocks up against points of confinement Firms develop for some time, then level Individuals show signs of improvement for some time, then their self-awareness moderates. Experiencing passionate feelings for is somewhat similar to this The adoration starts to level as the couple become more acquainted with each other betterSlide 39
Structure developing activity condition of stock moderating activity Balancing ReinforcingSlide 40
Understanding the Structure High-tech organizations develop quickly on account of their capacity to present new items This development levels as lead times turn out to be too longSlide 41
How to accomplish Leverage Most directors respond to the abating development by pushing harder on the fortifying circle Unfortunately, the all the more energetically you push the natural levels, the all the more firmly the adjusting procedure opposes, and the more useless your endeavors get to be. Rather, focus on the adjusting circle - changing the restricting component This is much the same as Goldratt\'s Theory of Constraints- - evacuate the bottleneck, the obstacleSlide 42
Applications to Quality Circles and JIT Quality circles work best when there is fair accentuation on both adjusting and strengthening circles JIT has needed to concentrate on hard-headed providers THERE WILL ALWAYS BE MORE LIMITING PROCESSES When one wellspring of confinement is expelled, another will surface Growth in the long run WILL STOPSlide 43
Create your own LIMITS TO GROWTH story Identify a points of confinement to development design in your own particular experience Diagram it What is developing What may be impediments Example- - the COBA and University capital battles NOW, LOOK FOR LEVERAGESlide 44
Test your LIMITS TO GROWTH display Talk to others about your recognition Test your thoughts regarding influence in little genuine trials Run and re-run the reproduction show Approach conceivable resistance and look for WIN-WIN methodologies with themSlide 45
ARCHETYPE 2: moving the weight A basic issue produces indications that request consideration. Be that as it may, the basic issue is troublesome for individuals to address, either on the grounds that it is dark or expensive to stand up to. So individuals "move the weight" of their issue to different arrangements - well meaning, simple fixes that appear to be amazingly effective.Slide 46
Shifting the weight situation, proceeded with Unfortunately, the simpler arrangements just improve the side effects; they leave the hidden issue unaltered. The fundamental issue deteriorates and the framework loses whatever capacities it needed to take care of the basic issue.Slide 47
The Stereotype Structure Symptom-Correcting Process Addiction Loop Problem-Correcting ProcessSlide 48
Special Case: Eroding Goals Full business implied 4% unemployment
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