Is global warming for real
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Is Global Warming for Real?.


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Is Global Warming for Real?. J. C. Sprott Department of Physics University of Wisconsin - Madison Presented at the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar In Madison, Wisconsin On January 17, 2006. Some Evidence. From Recent Seminars. Greenland Ice-core Data (C. S. Clay). 782,000 years.
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Slide 1

Is Global Warming no doubt? J. C. Sprott Department of Physics University of Wisconsin - Madison Presented at the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar In Madison, Wisconsin On January 17, 2006

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Some Evidence

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From Recent Seminars Greenland Ice-center Data (C. S. Dirt) 782,000 years Lake Mendota Ice Cover (John Magnuson) 150 years

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Prediction Methods Extrapolation systems Simple extrapolation Moving normal Trends Linear routines Simple relapse Autoregression All shafts strategy Nonlinear strategies Method of analogs Artificial neural system

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Simple Extrapolation 3 2 1 Order = 0 Fit the last few focuses to a polynomial

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Moving Average Lags = 0 1 2 3 Average some number of past focuses

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Trends 2 1 Lags = 0 Follow the pattern of some number of past focuses

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Linear Regression 2 3 Order = 0 1 Fit a polynomial to the whole information set

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Autoregression 4 2 Order = 0 x t = a 0 + a 1 x t-1 + a 2 x t-2 + …

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All Poles Method Poles = 0 2 4 1 Assume an entirety of posts in the unpredictable plane

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Method of Analogs Lags = 0 2 1 Find the nearest comparable past grouping

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Artificial Neural Network D an ij N b i 6 neurons Lags = 3 tanh x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + an i 2 x t - 2 + an i 3 x t - 3 ]

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Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 3 x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + an i 2 x t - 2 + an i 3 x t - 3 ]

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Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 4 x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + … + an i 4 x t - 4 ]

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Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 9 This year: 26 days x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + … + an i 9 x t - 9 ]

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Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 9 Chaotic? 450-year expectation ~30-70 days solidified x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + … + an i 9 x t - 9 ]

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Conclusion Eight indicators with ten or more values for the parameter give 80 altogether different forecasts We could take a normal of the considerable number of expectations Better yet, take the forecasts' middle (half higher, half lower)

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Median of 80 Predictions Prediction for this season: 91 days (March 19 th defrost)

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Ice Core Data Neural Network Predictor 6 neurons Lags = 9 782,000 years x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + … + an i 9 x t - 9 ]

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Ice Core Data Average of 80 Predictions 782,000 years

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Closing Thoughts The Earth is getting hotter Human action may not be the fundamental driver Global warming may not be a terrible thing Technological arrangements may be accessible and generally straightforward

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http://sprott.physics.wisc.edu/addresses/warming.ppt (this discussion) sprott@physics.wisc.edu (get in touch with me) References .:tslidesep.