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Is Global Warming for Real?. J. C. Sprott Department of Physics University of Wisconsin - Madison Presented at the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar In Madison, Wisconsin On January 17, 2006. Some Evidence. From Recent Seminars. Greenland Ice-core Data (C. S. Clay). 782,000 years.

Transcripts

Is Global Warming no doubt? J. C. Sprott Department of Physics University of Wisconsin - Madison Presented at the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar In Madison, Wisconsin On January 17, 2006

Some Evidence

From Recent Seminars Greenland Ice-center Data (C. S. Dirt) 782,000 years Lake Mendota Ice Cover (John Magnuson) 150 years

Prediction Methods Extrapolation systems Simple extrapolation Moving normal Trends Linear routines Simple relapse Autoregression All shafts strategy Nonlinear strategies Method of analogs Artificial neural system

Simple Extrapolation 3 2 1 Order = 0 Fit the last few focuses to a polynomial

Moving Average Lags = 0 1 2 3 Average some number of past focuses

Trends 2 1 Lags = 0 Follow the pattern of some number of past focuses

Linear Regression 2 3 Order = 0 1 Fit a polynomial to the whole information set

Autoregression 4 2 Order = 0 x t = a 0 + a 1 x t-1 + a 2 x t-2 + â¦

All Poles Method Poles = 0 2 4 1 Assume an entirety of posts in the unpredictable plane

Method of Analogs Lags = 0 2 1 Find the nearest comparable past grouping

Artificial Neural Network D an ij N b i 6 neurons Lags = 3 tanh x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + an i 2 x t - 2 + an i 3 x t - 3 ]

Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 3 x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + an i 2 x t - 2 + an i 3 x t - 3 ]

Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 4 x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + â¦ + an i 4 x t - 4 ]

Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 9 This year: 26 days x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + â¦ + an i 9 x t - 9 ]

Artificial Neural Network 6 neurons Lags = 9 Chaotic? 450-year expectation ~30-70 days solidified x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + â¦ + an i 9 x t - 9 ]

Conclusion Eight indicators with ten or more values for the parameter give 80 altogether different forecasts We could take a normal of the considerable number of expectations Better yet, take the forecasts' middle (half higher, half lower)

Median of 80 Predictions Prediction for this season: 91 days (March 19 th defrost)

Ice Core Data Neural Network Predictor 6 neurons Lags = 9 782,000 years x t = x t-1 + S b i tanh[ an i 0 + an i 1 x t - 1 + â¦ + an i 9 x t - 9 ]

Ice Core Data Average of 80 Predictions 782,000 years

Closing Thoughts The Earth is getting hotter Human action may not be the fundamental driver Global warming may not be a terrible thing Technological arrangements may be accessible and generally straightforward

http://sprott.physics.wisc.edu/addresses/warming.ppt (this discussion) sprott@physics.wisc.edu (get in touch with me) References .:tslidesep.