IUMI 2010 ZURICH.


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Backhanded ramifications through changes sought after for delivery administrations. ... Transportation is vigorously dependent on oil for impetus and not yet in a position to ...
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IUMI 2010 ZURICH 12 – 15 September Shipping and worldwide exchange : An audit of real improvements Hassiba Benamara UNCTAD

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CONTENTS I. Macro elements Economic development and stock exchange II. Delivery and seaborne exchange Demand: seaborne exchange Supply: armada improvements Freight rates III. Rising difficulties and some applicable issues to screen Environment Energy Other

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I. Financial development and stock exchange

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The first and most profound withdrawal (- 1.9%)… … in worldwide yield subsequent to the 1930s World GDP and exchange (genuine), 1971-2010 UNCTAD and WTO, 2010

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Broad-based and changed rate World GDP (% yearly development), 2004-2010 UNCTAD, 2010

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The "Incomparable Trade Collapse" World GDP and exchange (genuine), 1971-2010 UNCTAD and WTO, 2010

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Adverse exchange stuns crosswise over locales World stock exchange, 2009 UNCTAD , 2010

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A phenomenal exchange compression Merchandise sends out dropped 7 times more quickly than worldwide GDP ( versatility ≈ 2 in 60s and 70s and 3.4 in 90s). UNCTAD gauge for 1971-2010 ≈ 2.5. Synchronized drop. Multiplier impact: Globalized creation and expanded exchange parts and segments. Item organization of the fall sought after (e.g. purchaser products and durables, higher salary flexibility). Exchange merchandise drops speedier than exchange administrations which represent a bigger offer of GDP. Developing and augmenting of worldwide supply chains. Restricted exchange money (notwithstanding request stun).

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BUT… … there are indications of recuperation in monetary pointers…

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Business certainty is enhancing… Manufacturing Purchasing Managers\' Index, 2007-2010 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010

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… so does purchaser certainty… Retail deals, 2007-2010 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010

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… and mechanical generation Industrial creation, 2007-2010 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010

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GDP development turned positive in Q2-2009… … UNCTAD anticipates that GDP will develop by 3.5% in 2010 World GDP (% yearly development ), 2007-2010 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010

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World fares figure to develop… … by + 9.5% in created economies and +7% in ROW Merchandise trades, 2007-2010 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010

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Commodity costs are additionally rising Commodity value files (real and estimate, 2000=100), 2004-2011 World Bank, 2010

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Longer term standpoint and another worldwide configuration Major industrialized nations Twenty years up to 2009: +2.2% Next a quarter century: +1.8% Major creating nations Twenty years up to 2009: +6.3% Next a quarter century: +5.9% World normal Twenty years up to 2009: +2.9% Next a quarter century: +3.5% World fares (tons): - Expected to twofold in the following 20 years. Source: IHS-Fairplay, as introduced to IAME 2010, Lisbon, July 2010

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II. Transportation and seaborne exchange

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Unsheltered from stuns in the more extensive economy… Total a Year Oil Other dry payload Main masses (all cargoes) 1 442 448 676 2 566 1970 1 871 796 1 037 3 704 1980 1 755 968 1 285 4 008 1990 2 163 1 288 2 533 5 984 2000 2006 2 698 1 849 3 135 7 682 2 747 1 972 3 265 7 983 2007 2008 2 732 2 079 3 399 8 210 b 2 649 2 102 3 092 7 843 2009 … seaborne exchange contracted (- 4.5%) in 2009 World seaborne exchange (tons), 1970-2009 +1.1% - 3% - 4.5% - 9% UNCTAD RMT, 2010

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All delivery fragments adversely influenced… Seaborne exchange (% change), per load sort, 2009-2010 2009 2010 f Iron metal 8% 6% Coal 1% 9% Grain - 2% Bauxite and Alumina/Phosphate Rock - 27% 18% Major dry mass 1% 7% Minor dry masses - 13% 9% Other dry payload - 9% 6% of which compartment - 9% 11% Oil - 3% Total seaborne exchange (tons) - 4.5% 5.2% … however real dry mass load held solid ; China variable UNCTAD, RMT 2010; Clarkson Shipping Review (spring 2010), Dry Bulk Outlook, August, 2010, and Container Intelligence Monthly, August, 2010

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2009, a sensational year in the historical backdrop of holder transportation (- 9.4%) Global compartment exchange , 1990-2010 UNCTAD, in light of Clarkson Research Services and Drewry Consultants

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Fleet advancements

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Growth in boat supply limit proceeds… … 1.27 billion dwt toward the start of 2010, 7% expansion World armada by vessel sort in million dwt , 1980-2010 UNCTAD, in view of IHS-Fairplay information

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Record new conveyances (+42% in dwt terms) and a great orderbook World tonnage on request , 2000-2010 (000\' dwt ) UNCTAD, in light of IHS-Fairplay information

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Wider supply and request awkwardness… … as outlined by compartment shipping Supply and request in holder transportation, 2000-2010 UNCTAD, in light of Clarkson Container Intelligence Monthly

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Freight rates

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D/S decide cargo rates… The year 2009 was a distressing year for cargo rates in all business sector portions. Before the end of 2009, rates in all parts have recouped from their before lows though still altogether beneath their pre-emergency levels. Cargo rates for 2010 and past stay unstable and unverifiable.

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Baltic Tanker Indices, 2005-2010 … tanker rates fell with falling oil request UNCTAD , taking into account Lloyd\'s Shipping Economist information

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Dry load cargo lists, 2004-2010 … dry mass rates bolstered by interest from China… 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jul-09 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Nov-09 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jan-10 Jan-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Mar-10 Mar-04 May-04 Mar-05 May-05 Mar-06 May-06 Mar-07 May-07 Mar-08 May-08 Mar-09 Tramp Trip UNCTAD, in light of ISL-Shipping Statistics and Market Review

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Container cargo rates, 2005-2009 … holder rates upheld by a progression of counter-measures UNCTAD, in light of Containerisation International information

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Summary of key focuses (1) 2009, a record ever. Prospects are enhancing; recuperation fluctuating in pace, driven by rising creating economies (e.g. Asia). Different estimates for 2010/2011 (UNCTAD, IMF, WB, IHS-Fairplay, … ); all positive. World stock exchange is conjecture to develop in 2010 and 2011(e.g. WTO and World Bank). World seaborne exchange likewise figure to develop in 2010 and 2011.

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BUT… … the standpoint stays delicate in perspective of different drawback dangers…

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Summary of key focuses (2) Sustainability of recuperation, quality and shape (V, U or W)? Open obligations Unemployment and bank loaning Stimulus bundles (span/end) Is watched exchange recuperation driven by new request? Supply-side weights Known and obscure emergencies

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III. Rising difficulties and issues to screen Energy: access, security and costs Climate change: relief and adjustment Seafaring emergency? Store network security and robbery Other worldwide emergencies: e.g. nourishment, water, money related… Geopolitics Other ?

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Focus on two developing worldwide difficulties Climate change & vitality: interconnected Climate change moderation activity has suggestions for boat outline, motors, fuel frameworks, operations, administrations , administration, esteem, and so forth. Backhanded ramifications through changes popular for transportation administrations. E.g. atmosphere impelled changes in exchange structure, streams and examples through effects on segments, for example, vitality generation and utilization, agribusiness and nourishment items, demography and human settlement, and so on. Environmental change moderation and adjustment require vitality. Be that as it may, there are indications of an approaching vitality emergency. Delivery is vigorously dependent on oil for drive and not yet in a position to successfully and generally receive substitutes.

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Conclusion?

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Additionnal data and productions by UNCTAD, including on oil costs and oceanic cargo rates, sea transport and the environmental change challenge, and additionally inventory network security are accessible at: UNCTAD Trade Logistics Branch www.unctad.org/ttl/lawful UNCTAD\'s yearly Review of Maritime Transport and quarterly Transport Newsletter are accessible at: www.unctad.org/transportnews

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