Ivo laus .


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Rodrigo Rato: Three biggest dangers we confront today are: 1) money related flimsiness ? monetary emergency ? 2) demographic move ? to 10 G and after that to 2 G ? 3) environmental change Human creatures produced! Interconnected and worldwide. (Yearly gathering of The Club if Rome, Madrid 2007). How these dangers impact development?Millennium advancement objectives!.
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Ivo Šlaus Development and Environment – We Need a Box of New Tools

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Rodrigo Rato: Three biggest dangers we confront today are: 1) monetary instability → financial emergency ? 2) statistic move → to 10 G and afterward to 2 G ? 3) environmental change Human creatures produced! Interconnected and worldwide. (Yearly gathering of The Club if Rome, Madrid 2007) How these dangers impact advancement? Thousand years improvement objectives!

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Does the necessity of the maintainable world suggest the cutoff to development and the point of confinement to improvement? ☺ Creative limit of people suggests a plausibility of a consistent increment of human capital and social capital and of expanding flexibility and number of choices. Nonetheless, what is improvement? ☺Development as flexibility (A. Sen) Aren\'t we overpowered by a large number of choices? ("The decision blast" – P.F.Drucker, W.T. Anderson) ♣ Do we know enough, would we say we are insightful to pick?

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The best impediments are individual and social inward breaking points - mental, social and political communicated through individual and aggregate astigmatism, untrustworthiness and mistaken administration. " The most important resources mankind can tally on..to stop the decrease and to get ready for what\'s to come are to be found in the still undiscovered assets of understanding, vision and creativity..inherent in each individual. " A. Peccei, Agenda for the End of the Century, March 14, 1984

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☼ " P eople are the genuine abundance of countries. The fundamental point of improvement is to grow human flexibility and decisions with the goal that individuals live full and imaginative lives. This must profit everyone evenhandedly." The State of Human Development, Human advancement markers, 2004, p.127, UNDP ☼ We include: individuals - sound, taught , dynamic and cheerful, living in a general public of social equity and social attachment in a solid domain guaranteeing economical improvement. This and not more:not consummate individuals. Individuals are the generator and investor of information.

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«Work is an adoration made visible» (Kh. Gibran ) Everybody including exceptionally old, sick and incapacitated people can work and appreciates work. Work done by unemployed people (nonmonetizable). E mployment is essential socially, monetarily and politically. Unemployed individual has social, monetary , political and mental issues - can\'t get advances, can\'t frame families, or family can break subsequently of the unemployment push. Unemployed individual looses social regard , gets to be distinctly unfortunate, uneducated and poor. 9.5 M American now out of work, 159,000 occupations lost in Sep/08 Employment - twofold helix: employment+education Permanent, long lasting, evolving, flexi (ble+se) curity

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Full work with adaptability (flexicurity), no age separation and deep rooted training (India Congress Party and Prof. Horst K ö hler, president BRD: Oct 2007, Berlin Address)

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Humans ← natural and social advancement  people change, and human s change the world they live in, (Crutzen) current topographical age : Anthropocene. τ (c hanges ) < τ ( human life ) << τ (changes hundreds of years back ) H uman organic advancement quickened 100-crease in last 5-10,000 years . D riving powers : development of the total populace and world changed due to agricul . , creatures residential . furthermore, human natural surroundings. (e.g. accomplishment of transformation bringing on to process lactose ( in the course of the most recent 3,000 years ) . Qualities controlling the glucose digestion system in the mind as of late developed, potentially being basic for the human cerebrum development to the size twice that of our closest cousin - chimpanzee, and perhaps proposing why people do and chimpanzees don\'t have diabetes.

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I ntertwining : people ↔ machines and manufactured science 2020 nanomachines will be routinely utilized as a part of pharmaceutical - entering the circulation system to bolster cells and to concentrate squander. PCs will expect what we need. 2030 personality transferring will be conceivable 2040 human body 3.0 could modify its shape and organs can be supplanted by prevalent digital inserts. Manufactured science = outline and development of new organic gadgets and frameworks that don\'t exist in the common world ← meeting advancements: nanotechnology (control with iotas), biotechnology (qualities), data innovation (bits) and subjective neuroscience (neurons).

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Measurement Feasibility, Reliability and Uncertainty ↕ Robustness  INDICATORS  Input/Output ↕ (GDP, HDI ) quantitative ↔ subjective (contextual analyses) Inadequacies of GDP  Human Development Index-HDI, Index of reasonable financial welfare (ISEW) Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) USA 1950 1970 1990 2000 GDP/c 11,672 18,773 28,434 36,595 GPI/c 8,611 13,034 14,893 15,035 Beyond GDP - EU and CoR, Nov 2007

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R.F. Kennedy " We will discover neither national reason nor individual fulfillment in an unending hoarding o f common merchandise. We can\'t gauge national accomplishments by GDP, since GDP incorporates air contamination, cigarette notice and ambulances to clear our thruways after savagery. It checks extraordinary locks for our entryways and prisons for individuals who break them. Gross domestic product incorporates obliteration of redwoods and of Lake Superior. Gross domestic product develops with the generation of napalm and atomic warheads. It does exclude the soundness of our families, the nature of their instruction, it is apathetic regarding the security of our avenues... To put it plainly, GDP measures everything aside from what makes life advantageous."

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Economy ♣ Is an expanding disparity regardless of the possibility that in the end monetary development – "the rising tide will lift all vessels" good with the maxim "individuals are the abundance of countries"? Plato contended that the benefit of all required that the proportion between the rich and the poor be 5:1, and J.P. Morgan imagined that supervisors ought to have not more than 20 times the pay of their specialists. Worldwide Inequalities Fades as Global Economy Grows ?! Xavier Sala-i-Martin 2002 Free Market: - it is more than popular government since no oppression of greater part, - be that as it may, nonsensicalness of the group, even oppression of the swarm - reality versus virtuality Trust – Potemkin\'s towns Money Monetary exchange versus worldwide GDP, unique assessment on theoretical tns

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♣ outsourcing: ICT segment ave pay rates: USA = $ 75k; India = $ 8k, Brazil = $ 13k; India: 1.6 M ICT workers, +495,000/y; Brazil: 1 M, +100,000/y ♣ cell phones: in 2008: world: 3.3 G memberships, BRIC=1 G. 10 cell/100 individuals GDP ↑ 0.5% 2005 (London Business School) ♣ 80% of total populace inside mobile phone achieve versus 40% in 2000 ♣ work all over the place and constantly, associated with millions ♣ China economy surpasses USA in 2025, in 2050  130% of USA. Chinese CO 2 outflow = USA in 2010 2050 E7 (BRIC, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey) =1.5 G7 ♣ Loss (burglary) of information, e.g. D-Telekom lost individual information on 17 M clients

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♣ 24 "globalizers" (3 billions) expanded GDP/c by 5% versus "nonglobalizers" diminished by 1% ♣ 400 family unit merchandise in UK 20% less expensive than 10 years back ♣ By 2010 half web clients in creating world vs 4% now ♣ Worker/star ducer ← individual ( prosumer ) ↓ con sumer/shareholder Intertwining learning, economy and administration through systems administration including specialists, legislators, strategy creators, leaders, industrialists, business visionaries, laborers, share-holders, partners and in addition establishments.

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The contemporary world: ◙ globalization – science created (Th. Friedman: 3 periods of globalization: 1) driven by states, 2) by states and MNC and 3) by and engaging people) ◙ quick changes – science created (♥ we would be one-celled critters if there were no change) ◙ described by vulnerabilities and insecurities ◙ number of Earths required to give assets utilized by humankind and to assimilate their outflows for every year: 1970 1980 2005 2007 Goal: 2050 0.86 1.00 1.25 1.27 1.00 (???) ENVIRONMENT - ENERGY - FOOD - WATER World is hazardously in a condition of overshoot. ◙ Increasing disappointment of general society with administration

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Progress and Public feeling Enormous advance has been accomplished: - in 1893 just New Zealand could be viewed as a genuine vote based system, - in 1972 there were 43 free, 38 incompletely free and 69 not free nations, in 2002 there were 89 free nations, 56 halfway free and 47 not free. but then

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C itizens are not happy with their political frameworks. Gallup International\'s May 200 5 Voice of the People review of 50 ,000 nationals crosswise over 65 nations on 6 landmasses comes about measurably illustrative of the perspectives of 1.4 billion natives. Just 7% of the respondents firmly concur with the announcement that the world is going in the correct bearing, and extra 23% to some degree concur with that announcement, a unimportant 30% to be contrasted and 36% in the year 2001. 61% : globalization positively affects them/their families expanded from 2001 when it has been 55%.

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Development measured by Human Development Index (HDI) is identified with vitality utilization: If vitality utilization ≤ 3 tons of oil equal/c.y → HDI increments quickly with vitality utilization. Over that level → no relationship amongst\'s HDI and vitality utilization. In the event that all nations achieve 3 toe/capita.year → by 2030 the vitality utilization would be multiplied if our populace stays consistent. On the off chance that expanded to 8.1 billion → 2.6 circumstances bigger.

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Fresh water – key and limited asset. To deliver 1 gallon of diesel fuel one needs 9,000 gallons of water. To create enough corn for a similar measure of ethanol one needs 4,000 gallons of water. versus To deliver enough sustenance to meet the caloric needs of a man in Egypt (California) ↔ 666 (1300) ga

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