J A N U A R Y 2 0 5.


51 views
Uploaded on:
Category: Music / Dance
Description
JPMorgan is a promoting name for speculation saving money organizations of JPMorgan Chase ... This presentation does not constitute a pledge by any JPMorgan substance to ...
Transcripts
Slide 1

J A N U A R Y 2 0 5 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 KARIM PAKRAVAN, VICE PRESIDENT S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L

Slide 2

[For any pitchbook or presentation including counseling, value or obligation security or credit item or blends thereof. NOT for use in reasonableness/valuation or Commercial Bank presentations.] This presentation was arranged solely for the advantage and inward utilization of the JPMorgan customer to whom it is specifically tended to and conveyed (counting such customer\'s auxiliaries, the "Organization") keeping in mind the end goal to help the Company in assessing, on a preparatory premise, the plausibility of a conceivable exchange or exchanges and does not convey any privilege of production or revelation, in entire or to some degree, to some other gathering. This presentation is for exchange purposes just and is fragmented without reference to, and ought to be seen exclusively in conjunction with, the oral instructions gave by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its substance might be uncovered or utilized for some other reason without the earlier composed assent of JPMorgan. The data in this presentation is based upon any administration estimates supplied to us and reflects winning conditions and our perspectives as of this date, all of which are in like manner subject to change. JPMorgan\'s feelings and appraisals constitute JPMorgan\'s judgment and ought to be viewed as characteristic, preparatory and for illustrative purposes as it were. In setting this up presentation, we have depended upon and accepted, without autonomous confirmation, the exactness and culmination of all data accessible from open sources or which was given to us by or in the interest of the Company or which was generally looked into by us. Likewise, our examinations are not and don\'t indicate to be evaluations of the benefits, stock, or business of the Company or some other element. JPMorgan makes no representations with regards to the real esteem which might be gotten regarding an exchange nor the legitimate, duty or bookkeeping impacts of fulfilling an exchange. Unless explicitly examined thus, the data in this presentation does not consider the impacts of a conceivable exchange or exchanges including a genuine or potential change of control, which may have noteworthy valuation and different impacts. Despite anything thus unexpectedly, the Company and each of its workers, delegates or different operators may reveal to all persons, without impediment of any sort, the U.S. government and state pay charge treatment and the U.S. government and state pay charge structure of the exchanges mulled over thusly and all materials of any sort (counting suppositions or other duty investigations) that are given to the Company identifying with such assessment treatment and expense structure seeing that such treatment and/or structure identifies with a U.S. government or state wage charge procedure gave to the Company by JPMorgan. JPMorgan\'s arrangements deny workers from offering, straightforwardly or in a roundabout way, a good research rating or particular value target, or offering to change a rating or value focus, to a subject organization as thought or prompting for the receipt of business or for remuneration. JPMorgan additionally denies its exploration investigators from being adjusted for inclusion in speculation managing an account exchanges but to the degree that such support is planned to advantage speculators. JPMorgan is a showcasing name for venture keeping money organizations of JPMorgan Chase & Co. what\'s more, its auxiliaries around the world. Securities, syndicated credit orchestrating, budgetary admonitory and other speculation keeping money exercises are performed by a blend of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., J.P. Morgan plc, J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. furthermore, the suitably authorized backups of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Asia-Pacific, and loaning, subsidiaries and other business saving money exercises are performed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan bargain colleagues might be workers of any of the previous substances. This presentation does not constitute a pledge by any JPMorgan element to endorse, subscribe for or put any securities or to stretch out or orchestrate credit or to give some other administrations. G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5

Slide 3

GLOBAL OUTLOOK G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 1

Slide 4

2005 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Cyclical Peak :Global yield extended a year ago at 3.8%, its speediest pace subsequent to the 1980s Back to Trend Growth: As we enter 2005, the world economy is developing at a solid, though unspectacular pace: Healing of worldwide corporate segment Supportive money related conditions Economic Divergence: after a few fourth of synchronous development, noteworthy development uniqueness: G3: US/Japan at pattern, eurozone underneath pattern Asian economies moderate down and unite Latin America/Emerging Europe: force for financial increasing speed Monetary Divergence: US Fed movement to impartial, with Fed rates ascending by 200 bp more than 2005 Other real markets: Real ZIRP Oil Prices Let-up Downside Risks: Nevertheless, worldwide monetary execution faces huge drawback dangers: Currency market disequilibria-Perfect Storm? Unsettled oil markets/huge geo-political dangers G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 2

Slide 5

GLOBAL GROWTH: G-3 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 3

Slide 6

GLOBAL GROWTH-EMERGING MARKETS… . G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5

Slide 7

… DURABLE IMPROVEMENTS Emerging markets denoted a third year of twofold digit returns in 2004 The times of pain free income are numbered: Fed fixing cycle Self-managing development in the US and major developing markets. Be that as it may, solid enhancements in both monetary essentials and financial specialist observations implies that developing markets are less subject to worldwide liquidity conditions: EM resources as a particular class Broadening of speculator premise Event dangers are repressed: Very solid outside position Flexible trade rates EMBIG G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 6

Slide 8

Spread Change in EMBI (bp) Date of Fed Hike Length of Cycle (months) Total Fed Funds Rate Hike (%) 1m 3m 12m February-94 12 3.00 171 335 753 June-99 11 1.75 85 43 -264 3.0 6.0 2.5 2.0 5.0 1.5 1.0 4.0 2.0 0.5 1.5 0 3.0 1.0 0.5 Jan-04 Feb-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 0 - 0.5 Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 IMPROVED RISK PERCEPTIONS REDUCE THE RISK The distinction is that financial specialists got to be danger disinclined in front of the main loan fee climb while basics have been on an uptrend since 2002 Start of the Current Cycle Start of the Current Cycle Fed Funds EMBIG Spread (%) Fed Funds Policy Rate Level EMBIG Strip Spread (%) G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 Investors Market Position Fed Funds Policy Rate Level 7

Slide 9

CHINA-"Delicate LANDING" OR "NO LANDING" The powers are at an expression point on large scale arrangements Official information for the initial seventy five percent demonstrates a bounce back in the economy in the second from last quarter. Genuine GDP up 9.5%, swelling on an upward pattern, fares and imports surging and venture hinting at small backing off These patterns are confirmation that the "regulatory" (i.e. headquarters) measures taken so far have done little to altogether check monetary activity– a "No Landing" situation" instead of a "Delicate " one This acknowledgment may have been behind the 27 bp loan cost increment by the People\'s Bank of China toward the end of October. In spite of the ascent, genuine loan fees stay near zero The PBOC has indicated that it is not fulfilled by the pace of financial stoppage, and the October move might be the principal indication of a money related fixing—pay special mind to swelling numbers to year-end The late financing cost increment is an indication that: a)the government is more alright with the pace of development; and b) that it is beginning to depend more on business sector based large scale instruments, predominantly rates and FX arrangements G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 8

Slide 10

THE CHINA QUESTION CNY revaluation: no more an "if", yet "when" and "how" China moving towards market-situated approach measures Rebound of monetary action in the second from last quarter have hosed fears of a hard-landing Concerns about determined expansion both cost-push and request pull Political agreement When: Most likely in 05-Q1 How: Widening of the band Move towards a bushel of coinage G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 9

Slide 11

OIL PRICES: SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTS G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 10

Slide 12

OIL PRICE:FROM IRAQ-I TO IRAQ-II (USD/BBL-WTI) G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 11

Slide 13

WILL OIL MARKETS STABILIZE IN 2005? A G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 12

Slide 14

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS:FLASHPOINTS AND OIL PRICES Existing and creating problem areas will keep on dominating the features in 2005 However, geopolitical danger is not synonymous to oil supply hazard Flashpoints: Iraq-No confirmation of adjustment Best case: Czechoslovak situation: controlled mayhem/division Worst-case: Yugoslav situation: common war Oil Supply Disruptions: Frequent/Large-scale Iran: Rising US-Iran strains over Iran\'s atomic program Very couple of choices for the US/military activity improbable High "Feature" Impact Nigeria: Civil Strife Russia: Yukos takeover G L O B A L E C O N O M I C A N D C U R E N C Y P E R S P E C T I V E 2 0 5 13

Slide 15

GEOPOLITICAL RISK OUTLOOK/IM

Recommended
View more...