Paul C. Religious administrator, Ph.D. Overseeing Director, Research NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Real Estate Market Outlook: Peering Through the Clouds OHIO ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Winter Conference January 14, 2008Slide 2
Overview The Market Setting Sales are down and shoppers are sketchy The Outlook Partly overcast What do Buyers and Sellers Expect from You in this Market? Mastery and directionSlide 3
Buyers and Sellers are Jittery about the U.S. Economy Unemployment: 5% (Dec), up from 4.7% Job development: +18,000 (Dec) GDP: +4.9% (Q3) Consumer burning through: +2.8% (Q3) Business speculation: +9.3% (Q3) Residential venture: - 20.5% (Q3) Exports: +19.1% (Q3) Oil costs: $100/bbl Stock business sector: Up, Down and SidewaysSlide 4
New Construction Has Been Hit Hard a huge number of units 38% decrease from pinnacle Source: U.S. StatisticsSlide 5
Consumers Rethink New Home Purchase Plans a great many units 40% decrease from pinnacle Source: U.S. EnumerationSlide 6
Existing Home Sales Have Also Fallen a great many units 20% decrease from pinnacle Source: NARSlide 7
More Sellers than Buyers = Rising Inventory months supply Source: U.S. Evaluation, NARSlide 8
As a Result Prices Have Declined % New Home Prices: - 2.1% Existing Home Prices: - 1.9% Source: NARSlide 9
Some Markets Remain Quite Robust Source: NAR, 2007Q3Slide 10
But Others are Suffering Source: NAR, 2007Q3Slide 11
Tough Job Situation in Ohio thousands Decline from pinnacle: - 195,000; - 3.5% Source: BLSSlide 12
Areas of Strength and Weakness in Local Job Market Source: BLSSlide 13
No Upturn in Existing Home Sales in Ohio Yet Q3 06 to Q3 07 U.S: - 13.7% Ohio: - 11.6% Indiana: - 9.4% Kentucky: - 7.2% Michigan: - 4.0% Pennsylvania: - 3.2% West Virginia: - 19.0% 11% decrease from pinnacle a large number of units Source: NARSlide 14
Median Prices Weak in Many Ohio Markets Source: NAR, 2007Q3Slide 15
Subprime Loan Implosion Homeowners confronting higher resetting rates and dispossessions Wall Street reassessing hazard Sub-prime intermediaries getting out or being pushed out Potential home purchasers forgot wide open to the harshe elementsSlide 16
Mortgage Delinquencies: A Tale of Two Sectors % Stagnant costs limit capacity to renegotiate out of high hazard advances Housing blast licenses re-financing and brings down wrongdoing rate Job misfortunes push up Delinquency rate Source: Mortgage Bankers AssnSlide 17
Foreclosure Rates Far Higher Among Subprime % Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn (3Q07)Slide 18
Share of Subprime Loans is Relatively Small… Source: NAR EstimateSlide 19
… But Subprime Loans Account for Most Foreclosures Source: NAR EstimateSlide 20
Wide Regional Differences in Foreclosure Rates % Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn (3Q07)Slide 21
Highest Foreclosure Rates in the Upper Midwest % Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn (3Q07)Slide 22
U.S. Financial Outlook Source: NAR, January 2008 estimateSlide 23
U.S. Lodging Market Outlook Source: NAR, January 2008 estimateSlide 24
Getting to Know Today\'s Buyer and Sellers In today\'s business sector, what do purchasers and dealers need? First-time purchasers are the main edge of the home purchasing market Evolving demographics impact who is in the business sector to buy a home Generational contrasts influence inclinations for area, highlights, scan process and purposes behind purchasing or offering a homeSlide 25
What do Buyers do First When Looking for a Home? 91% utilized the Internet amid their home quest Desire for a littler home is one of the top purposes behind purchasing Over half blog or utilize interpersonal organization destinations no less than a couple times each week Over half went by an open house Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers Age of Home BuyerSlide 26
Buyers Look for Information Online… Age of Home Buyer Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersSlide 27
… But Most Find their Agent Through Referrals Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersSlide 28
Sellers Also Depend on Referrals When Choosing an Agent Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersSlide 29
What Buyers Want Most from Real Estate Agents Small contrasts among demographic gatherings Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersSlide 30
Trust and Reputation are Key in Buyers\' Use of Agent Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersSlide 31
What Sellers Want Most from Real Estate Agents Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersSlide 32
Educating Sellers – Your Role as an Expert 24% of homes were available for 17 or more Weeks home was available Source: 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and SellersSlide 33
What Does everything Mean Big changes in the land market Sluggish action in numerous (however not all) districts Foreclosures will keep down business sector in a few zones Pent-up interest will lift numerous business sectors in the following year or so In an extreme business sector, purchasers and venders require your mastery Real home stays one of the best ventures for most family unitsSlide 34
For more data: Paul C. Religious administrator NAR Research Division 202-383-1246 email@example.com www.realtor.org/research
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