LTPP Solar PV Performance and Cost Estimates Ryan Pletka, PE June 18, 2010Slide 2
PV Performance Estimates - 2Slide 3
Definitions DC Capacity AC Capacity AC Output DC Capacity Sum of module nameplate rating. Demonstrated as 20 percent higher than inverter nameplate rating. Air conditioning Capacity – Sum of inverter nameplate rating. M Inverter Black & Veatch - 3Slide 4
Definitions Continued AC Annual Energy Output The aggregate vitality yield on a yearly premise at the vitality meter. This number incorporates dc and air conditioning wiring misfortunes. Air conditioning Capacity Factor = AC Annual Energy Output [kWh]/ (AC Capacity [kW] * 8760 [hours per year]) DC Capacity Factor = AC Annual Energy Output [kWh]/ (DC Capacity [kWp] * 8760 [hours per year]) Black & Veatch - 4Slide 5
Overview of Performance Estimate Methodology System definition Chose 4 delegate areas and 4 framework arrangements Developed abnormal state calculated plan Gathered sun powered asset information (TMY – Typical Meteorological Year) Modeled framework execution in PVSYST Similar approach as that utilized by B&V\'s Solar Performance Group for more than 100 working and proposed PV ventures, most in California Black & Veatch - 5Slide 6
System Definitions Size and Locations Black & Veatch - 6Slide 7
Conceptual Design Basis Black & Veatch - 7Slide 8
Modeling Locations & Resource Data North Coast Central Valley Defined locales that group felt had fundamentally extraordinary PV sending potential and execution attributes Identified agent areas in every district for which to pull sun oriented information NREL\'s TMY3 information been illustrative of every area TMY3 information of Class II or higher picked South Coast Desert Black & Veatch - 8Slide 9
Modeling and Loss Assumptions System Voltage: 600 Vdc Module Quality: According to ordinary guarantees Row Spacing: Assumed to be sufficiently adequate for no between column shading between 9 am and 3 pm all year. Warm Parameters: According to mounting (rooftop mount, ground mount) Soiling: Weather conditions in every area evaluated to create ruining misfortune presumptions. Air conditioning wiring misfortune: 0.5 percent DC wiring misfortune: 1.5 percent Transformer misfortune: 1 percent Availability misfortune: 1 percent, that is, framework thought to be accessible (working) 99 percent of the time Black & Veatch - 9Slide 10
Performance Estimates Black & Veatch - 10Slide 11
PV Cost Estimates - 11Slide 12
Cost Development Approach Detailed bottoms-up gauge in view of B&V\'s designer get build (EPC) philosophy Market Pricing Costs for tasks where Black & Veatch is proprietor\'s architect or loan specialist\'s designer Financial articulations for module providers (e.g., First Solar) Recent venture declarations/open/private information (other market data) Hundreds of late PPA offers All capital expenses are on a $/Wdc premise and accept 2010 business operation date Black & Veatch - 12Slide 13
Cost Uncertainty/Variability Estimates are innately indeterminate and costs in the PV business are "alert" The expenses of CSI undertakings and other market sources seem to fluctuate by around +/ - 25 percent This variety is because of site particular elements, proprietor particular variables, and segment/framework valuing Site particular elements are typically caught in the BOS and might incorporate housetop mounting issues, evaluating or establishment issues, shading contemplations, interconnection issues or comparative Owner particular elements are caught in the Owner\'s expenses and may incorporate allowing issues, lawful issues, arrive obtaining, or proprietor\'s administration issues Component/framework estimating variety is identified with market supply versus request, showcase productivity, timing, and so on. Dark & Veatch - 13Slide 14
Black & Veatch Cost Estimates for PV Systems Based on designs distinguished before As expressed beforehand, run of the mill cost instability is +/ - 25% Black & Veatch - 14Slide 15
Comparison of PV Costs, Plus Large Central Station Costs Black & Veatch - 15Slide 16
Example Breakdown of Component Costs 20 MW 5 MW Module 1.65 $/watt 1.65 $/watt Support structure 0.82 $/watt 0.84 $/watt Inverter 0.24 $/watt 0.25 $/watt BOS 0.31 $/watt 0.40 $/watt Owner\'s Costs 0.68 $/watt 0.76 $/watt Total Capital Req. 3.70$/watt 3.90 $/watt Black & Veatch - 16Slide 17
Appendix Material - 17Slide 18
Details on Component Costs Black & Veatch - 18Slide 19
Module cost (5 MW and 20 MW) Black & Veatch has seen evaluates in the vicinity of 1.3 and 2.25$/watt From Review of First Solar Financial Statements we infer 1.63$/watt From April 2010 SEIA report, SEIA shows normal 2009 expenses at 1.85 to 2.25 $/watt. We have picked 1.65 $/watt, which is close to the First Solar information point and marginally beneath the midpoint (1.77) of the Black & Veatch low perception of 1.3$/watt and high SEIA purpose of 2.25$/watt Black & Veatch - 19Slide 20
Structure Cost (5 MW and 20 MW) We have picked 0.82-0.84 $/watt which is the consequence of exploring quotes from three makers. Dark & Veatch - 20Slide 21
Inverter Costs (5 MW and 20 MW) We have picked 0.24-0.25 $/watt which depends on our experience, and confirmed with various merchants Black & Veatch - 21Slide 22
BOS Cost (5 MW and 20 MW) BOS incorporates wares like trenching, wire, electrical associations and establishing bars, venture up transformer, and comparable things We have picked 0.31 - 0.40 $/watt in the wake of finishing a bottoms up gauge. Dark & Veatch - 22Slide 23
Owner\'s Costs (5 MW and 20 MW) Owner\'s expenses incorporate extra parts, water supplies, extend improvement, proprietor\'s venture administration, deals and different charges, protection, admonitory expenses, legitimate, financing (counting enthusiasm amid development), arrive/rooftop procurement (as pertinent), startup and development bolster. There is a high level of variety in this thing because of one of a kind client approaches. We have picked 0.68-0.76 $/watt in the wake of looking into real proprietor\'s expenses for three improvement extends and investigating designation rates made for past reviews (up to 25 percent) Black & Veatch - 23Slide 24
Analysis of Data from California Solar Initiative Reported framework cost information for frameworks introduced under CSI Generally <1 MW Data is known to contain blunders and different irregularities Data source: CSI PowerClerk, June 9, 2010 Ratings are accounted for nameplate rating (kW dc) Black & Veatch - 24Slide 25
Economies of Scale – Data from Installed Systems >100 kW Data source: CSI PowerClerk, June 9, 2010 Black & Veatch - 25Slide 26
Falling System Costs – Installed Systems Only Data source: CSI PowerClerk, June 9, 2010 Black & Veatch - 26Slide 27
Data from Pending Applications Indicates Potentially Lower Costs, But Should be Treated Cautiously (Systems >750 kW Only) CSI Status Data source: CSI PowerClerk, June 9, 2010 Black & Veatch - 27Slide 28
Most Recent CSI Pending Applications, >300kW Data source: CSI PowerClerk, June 9, 2010 Black & Veatch - 28Slide 29
Most Recent CSI Pending Applications, >300kW Reporting mistakes? Normal $/kW = 5,050/kW Data source: CSI PowerClerk, June 9, 2010 Black & Veatch - 29Slide 30
Performance Estimates for Large 150 MW Sites DC Capacity Factor Desert Thin Film: 21.3% Tracker: 23.2% Central Valley Thin Film: 18.8% Tracker: 21.3% Black & Veatch - 30Slide 31
LTPP Solar PV Potential and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) June 18, 2010Slide 32
Overview of Presentation DG PV Potential gauges by size and area Methodology Results Levelized cost of vitality gauges by size and area LCOE Tool Results Appendix Potential Estimates LCOE Input Assumptions (likewise accessible in apparatus on site)Slide 33
Goals of Potential Analysis Develop PV Potential appraisals Identify \'Simple to interface\' and \'harder to associate\' 4 size and setup classes 0.5 – 2 MW Roof, 0.5 – 2 MW Ground, 2 – 5 MW Ground, 5 – 20 MW Ground 4 areas crosswise over California Desert, Central Valley, North Coast, South CoastSlide 34
PV Potential Estimation Adjusted the 33% RPS Implementation Analysis potential review approach Same basic restrictive utility substation loadings and areas as utilized already Same substantial housetop potential with satellite symbolism Key changes Added little rooftops in country ranges "Put aside" potential for current projectsSlide 35
Screening Assumptions "Simple" Interconnection Nameplate PV framework is not exactly or equivalent to 30% of pinnacle load at purpose of interconnection to keep away from invert stream Participation 33% of vast rooftop proprietors will take part Penetration 33% of feeders oblige ground-mounted frameworks up to the "simple" interconnection limits 33% of RETI distinguished extensive PV destinations can be interconnected with a direct transmission interconnection cost 10% of provincial "simple" interconnection potential in little rooftopsSlide 36
PV Potential Screening Method RETI Identified 20MW Projects Peak Loading on Each Substation Urban Location Rural Location 30% "Simple" Interconnection Large Roof Potential 90% to Ground Mounted 33% Participation of Roofs 10% to Small Roofs 33% Penetration at Moderate Cost 33% Penetration 30% of Peak Load Screen 2/3 Remaining Potential Ground Mounted "Hard" Interconnect Ground Mounted "Simple" Interconnect Large Rooftop Small RooftopSlide 37
Screening Steps Raw Potential (MWs): RETI Identified Sites Substation Load Total 27,500 39,323 After Screening (MWs): After Removing Existing Programs (MWs):Slide 38
Modeled PV Potential (MW)Slide 39
Goals of PV LCOE Analysis Create a freely accessible ace fo
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