MD 815 Session 3 Technology Forecasting Scenario Planning .

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Presentation. Why guaging is crucialWill there be a business opportunity for your product?How quick will it mature?What will happen to contending and correlative technologies?What dangers lie not too far off for your built up items?. Why are we so terrible at determining?. \"This
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MD 815 Session #3 Technology Forecasting & Scenario Planning 1. Presentation 2. S-Curves and quantitative estimating 3. Situation Planning

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Introduction Why determining is vital Will there be a business opportunity for your item? How quick will it develop? What will happen to contending and corresponding advances? What perils lie not too far off for your built up items?

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Why are we so terrible at estimating? "This "phone" has excessively numerous deficiencies to be truly considered as a method for communication." - Western Union update, 1876 "While hypothetically and in fact TV might be attainable, industrially and fiscally it is an inconceivability." - Lee DeForest, designer "I think there is a world market for possibly five PCs. - Thomas Watson, administrator of IBM, 1943 "There is no reason anybody would need a PC in their home." - Ken Olson, leader of DEC 1977 "640K should be sufficient for anyone". - Bill Gates, 1981

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The key is to figure astutely... Understanding the conditions under which guaging is most plausible Knowing when you most need it/the amount you ought to spend Fast changing situations Long arranging skylines Large stakes included More mind boggling hidden issues Aggressive (instead of cautious) R&D systems Matching method to require

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Example: FedEx ZapMail About ZapMail Two hour astounding copy benefit $25 for a 30 page fax Conceived in 1979; conveyed in 1984 Cost: $400 million Was this a smart thought? What apparatuses could have been utilized to choose? Lesson: Every real business choice contains a certain gauge Better ensure yours is not route, way off

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The Technology S-Curve

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Technological Discontinuities

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Technological Discontinuities

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Technological Discontinuities

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Moore\'s Law

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The Diffusion S-Curve

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Example: Networked PDA appropriation in 1994 Use comparables to build up a scope of conceivable outcomes Prominent IT items give an arrangement of potential analogs: Cellular phones Pagers Facsimile machines Modems Desktop PCs Laptop PCs On-line administrations ISDN (limit band)

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Were Networked PDAs around 1994 more like Cellular or ISDN?

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Example: Interpreting Growth Trends Sales development: Which of these organizations would you rather put resources into?

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Example: Interpreting Growth Trends How about these two?

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Scenario Planning: How to Hold a Strategic Conversation (Schwartz) 1. Create a neighborly atmosphere 2. Establish an underlying gathering including key leaders and specialists 3. Include outside data and outside individuals 4. Look ahead far ahead of time of choices 5. Begin by taking a gander at the present and the previous 6. Conduct preparatory situation work in littler gatherings 7. Playing out the discussion 8. Living in a lasting key discussion

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