New Ways to deal with Epidemiological Danger Appraisal Administration Konstantyn Atoyev.


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A standout amongst the most vital errands of present day the study of disease transmission is the successful checking, ... Computer science and figuring innovation (Medical Cybernetics) 90: 100 ...
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Slide 1

New Approaches to Epidemiological Risk Assessment Management Konstantyn Atoyev Cybernetics Center of National Academy of Sciences. Kiev. Ukraine.

Slide 2

One of the most critical undertakings of advanced the study of disease transmission is the powerful observing, guaging and administration of epidemiological circumstance and epidemiological danger evaluation. Making of data PC framework (ICS) on the premise of epidemiological programming and strategies for numerical displaying is more successful procedure of above assignment arrangement. It is the imperative helper instrument for minimization of costs on counteractive action of plague and liquidation their outcomes.

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In this address the new way to deal with epidemiological danger evaluation and administration is exhibited. The customary techniques or danger estimation were expounded on the premise of hypothesis of likelihood. For example the danger of some ailment is resolved as proportion of aggregate sum of patients with this sicknesses to aggregate populace. Be that as it may, the hypothesis of likelihood can\'t be accurately used for danger appraisal now and again, when occasion has one of a kind character.

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On the other side the Chernobyl catastrophe and occasions of September 11, 2001 have demonstrated that even insignificant estimation of danger can happen. In this association boundless gets understanding that the one of a kind and single character of so advanced subject as scourge, and particularly worldwide pestilences does not permit now and again to utilize accurately the hypothesis of likelihood for danger evaluation.

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There is another way to deal with danger evaluation, which may demonstrate more valuable here. In this approach the danger estimation is done utilizing the hypothesis of smooth capacities permitting the determination of basic parameter values which depict the levels of control framework intensities and store conceivable outcomes. The danger is assessed on a level of the framework parameter estimate of the bifurcation values, which portray the framework\'s move starting with one enduring state (standard), then onto the next (disaster/pestilence).

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The epidemilogical hazard worth is dictated by method for parameters, which describe the condition of operators of sicknesses, populace insusceptible status and store conceivable outcomes, medicinal services and environment sway on populace. The primary point of interest of this methodology is the determination of epidemiological danger progression as the capacity of element variables of the examined epidemiological framework. It permits early acknowledgment of dangers and ID and positioning of basic variables, which decide uncommon occasions acknowledgment. It likewise permits distinguish the weakest connection of analyzed framework and range of required change.

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On the premise of this methodology ICS is expounded for epidemiological assignments arrangement. It incorporates the database of irresistible infections, programming for essential measurements and epidemiological demonstrating. The particular element of expounded framework is joining in innovative rigging programming that permits the diverse element and advancement undertakings arrangement.

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There are taking after fundamental undertakings: 1. Anticipating of irresistible infections emerging and spreading. 2. Hazard evaluation of scourge emerging and examinations of viability of do prophylactic measures. 3. Basic leadership support for ideal measures elaboration, which allow to minimize the irresistible sicknesses increment and spreading. 4. Checking of epidemiological circumstance.

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On the base of explained ICS the examination of various danger components affecting epidemiological circumstance in Ukraine is finished. The positioning of various locales of Ukraine on tuberculosis ( TB ) rate rates was done. A few issues of TB element determining and ideal redistribution of assets with the reason for reinforcing of administration of irresistible infection avoidance and control endeavors for augmentation of viability post pestilence reclamation were analyzed.

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Optimization issues were understood by a technique for easygoing inquiry. The multicriterion proclamations of an issue were considered, to locate an ideal control, which would allow to augment the level of assembling and personal satisfaction, from one perspective, and minimize epidemiological danger of mischances and level of contamination, on the other. This work additionally delineates the above methodology application to HIV/AIDS hazard appraisal for various nations utilizing new WHO\'s information

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Main proposes . Give us a chance to present some hypothesizes that we take as a premise of model elaboration. 1.Epidemiological framework is total of components that portray diverse parts of irresistible illnesses emerging and spreading. Some of these components have a place with another frameworks – biological, biomedical, and social. 2. Epidemiological framework has three consistent states . Utilizing Guastello [5] thought regarding association wellbeing of confused frameworks it is conceivable to advance a taking after suppositions. The principal state is portrayed by presence of outer and inward wellbeing ( standard ). Second state is described by just outer wellbeing, as inward one is broken (middle of the road state or preepidemic ). Third state is portrayed by full loss of any wellbeing, as outside, so inner ( pandemic ).

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3. The epidemiological danger estimation is do with the assistance of the hypothesis of smooth capacities, (TSF ) permitting decide a level of framework parameter guess to their basic qualities, which describe framework move starting with one its enduring state (standard), then onto the next (pestilence or preepidemic). 4. Wellbeing level X is portraying by one of all inclusive disfigurement of TSF - the butterfly. It decided with the assistance of parameters, which portray the condition of operators of illnesses ( a ); populace invulnerable status and rebuilding potential outcomes ( b ); medicinal services ( c ); environment ( d ). Figure for Postulates

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The scientific model for epidemiological danger appraisal The relationship between pestilence wellbeing (X) or more said parameters are resolved for butterfly disaster by taking after polynomial : X5 + aX3 + bX2 + cX + d = 0

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Algorithm of epidemiological danger evaluation. On the base of works managing strategies for calamities hypothesis a taking after calculation of epidemiological danger appraisal can be recommended. 1. Data describing specialists of sicknesses, populace safe status and rebuilding potential outcomes, human services, environment effects is inputted from present day social insurance frameworks (EPID Info 2000, and so forth). 2. The records describing proper gathering of parameters are evaluated by method for created scientific models with the assistance of inputted information.

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Algorithm of epidemiological danger appraisal. (cont.) 3. The bifurcation estimations of the parameters at which number of framework states is changing are ascertained. Intersection of a limit isolating territories with 5 and with 3 stationary states compares to move from standard into preepidemic, crossing a limit isolating regions with 3 and 1 stationary state relates to move into pestilence state. 4. Rebuilding potential outcomes of each of considered frameworks are evaluated by remoteness of parameter describing proper list from its bifurcation esteem.

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Forecasting of irresistible maladies emerging and spreading. Improvement issues of danger administration. The numerical model was utilized to take care of a few issues of ideal redistribution of assets with the motivation behind minimization of pestilence danger level and contamination and amplification of life quality and GNP. The shares of the capital, coordinated on rebuilding of assets, on human services and on battle with contamination were picked as control parameters. .

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Optimization assignment arrangement and danger appraisal On Figure 3 the displaying results are appeared, which reflect progression of principle model variables with settled control impacts, and with control impacts differing throughout time, furthermore the flow of control impacts.

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TUBERCULOSIS NOTIFICATION RATES in UKRAINE ( determining errand arrangement 2006/2005) Fig 5. Consequences of determining undertaking arrangement.

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Analysis of WHO date on HIV/AIDS hazard appraisal for various nations Examine the case of above methodology application to HIV/AIDS heightening danger evaluation. The WHO information for various nations displayed at Table 1 were used.

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Let us present coordinated lists describing condition of demographic circumstance (D), financial aspects (E), medicinal services (H) and training (E). Utilizing these files, which describe level of the epidemiological frameworks\' capacities infringement and their stores, above numerical strategy for danger appraisal might be used.

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By method for numerical techniques basic estimations of these records can be ascertained, on accomplishing of which a likelihood of exchange starting with one practical state then onto the next forcefully increments. In this manner for a given information it is conceivable to discover spaces of useful parameter values that relate to standard, preepidemic and pandemic.

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Conclusion The acknowledgment of above methodology for plague hazard examination permits to gauge danger of crisis, as well as to get the quantitative normal for store potential outcomes of the epidemiological framework and its segments. It likewise permit to depict a present condition of the framework by positioning arrangement of dangers of crisis event in its different connections, and by that to discover most «weak» connection, on reinforcing of which it is important to direct fundamental endeavors.

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Conclusion (cont) The fundamental favorable position of this methodology is the determination of danger elements as the capacity of element variables of the researched frameworks. The future procedure of epidemiological danger examination improvement might be

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