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The Liberal Vision: International Politics as Tragedy. All Countries Lose From War. ... US: Pursue Objectives Through Inspections Regime OR Use Force to Overthrow Regime ...
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The Prisoners\' Dilemma and the Liberal Tragedy Lecture 9

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The Liberal Vision: International Politics as Tragedy All Countries Lose From War. Thusly, All Countries Would Gain If All Would Prepare Less for and Engage in Fewer Wars. Disaster : Even Peace-adoring Countries Are Forced to Militarize by the Anarchic Structure of the International System.

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The Prisoners\' Dilemma The Liberal Tragedy Arises From Strategic Interaction . The Prisoners\' Dilemma Is the Game We Will Use to Model this Interaction. The Prisoners\' Dilemma is a General Model of Cooperation. Between Individuals Between Governments

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The Elements of a Game The Actors: Who Is Playing? On-screen characters\' Strategies: What Choices Do The Actors Have? Results: What Are the Results of the Interactive Choices Actors Make? Inclination Orders: How Do the Actors Rank All of the Possible Outcomes? The Solution: How will Each Actor Play the Game, Given the Strategies, Outcomes, and Preference Orders?

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The India-Pakistan Nuclear Game The Actors: Pakistan and India The Strategies: Two Choices Build Nuclear Weapons Don\'t Build Nuclear Weapons The 4 Possible Outcomes: Arms Race : Both Build Nuclear Weapons Stable Military Balance : Neither Builds N. Weapons Pakistan Advantage : Pakistan Builds, India Doesn\'t India Advantage : India Builds, Pakistan Doesn\'t For Preference Orders… .

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The Prisoners\' Dilemma

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The India-Pakistan Game, Again

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Solving the Game: Backwards Induction 2,2 (Arms Race) manufacture Pakistan construct don\'t fabricate 4,1 (India Advantage) India 1,4 (Pakistan Advantage) assemble don\'t construct Pakistan don\'t fabricate 3,3 (Stable Balance)

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The Prisoners\' Dilemma, Again Dominant Strategy Pareto Optimal India Pakistan Dominant Strategy Nash Equilibrium

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Other Examples of the Logic of the Prisoners\' Dilemma Current Struggle Between Israelis and Palestinians. Systems : Retaliate; Turn the Other Cheek France and Germany Following WWI. Systems : Re-Arm; Don\'t Re-Arm United States and Iraq Strategies : US: Pursue Objectives Through Inspections Regime OR Use Force to Overthrow Regime IRAQ: Allow Inspections in Compliance with UN Security Council Resolutions OR Refuse to Cooperate Military Force is a "Judicious" Strategy for Both Parties In All of These Conflicts.

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Broader Importance of the Prisoners\' Dilemma Tragedy of International Politics: Both Can Be Better Off, yet Unable to Realize These Joint Gains. Failure to Realize Joint Gains Arises From Inability to Make Binding Commitments . In the event that Agreements Could Be Concluded and Enforced, Then Joint Gains Could Be Realized . The Absence of an Enforcement Mechanism — Anarchy — Is the Source of Tragedy. Change the Institutional Framework, Change International Politics.

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Iterated Play Repeated Play of the Game Without a Known End Point. One good turn deserves another Strategies Decentralized Enforcement Mechanism. Adjusts Calculation of Payoffs Single Play: One Time Payoff Repeated Play: Stream of Payoffs Over Time Stream of Payoffs > One Time Payoff Becomes Rational To Play a Cooperative Strategy International Organizations Help Promote Transformation. Give Rule-Based Structure to Interaction. Straightforwardness Provide High Quality and Potentially Unbiased Information About Behavior of Others. De-Politicize Monitoring Help Ensure that Retaliation/Enforcement is Proportional. Avoid Vicious Cycles Is There a Way to Escape The Dilemma?