Slide1 l.jpg
1 / 44

Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts.


101 views
Uploaded on:
Category: General / Misc
Description
www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING Ken Cordell Gary Green U.S. Forest Service, Athens, Georgia AND Becky Stephens University of Tenn. Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts NSRE NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT SINCE 1960
Transcripts
Slide 1

www.srs.fs.fed.us/patterns FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING Ken Cordell Gary Green U.S. Woods Service, Athens, Georgia AND Becky Stephens University of Tenn. Patterns and the Significance of Demographic Shifts

Slide 2

NSRE NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT SINCE 1960 THE UNITED STATES’ ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY

Slide 3

1960: Flower Children, 18-horse Johnson, VW Camper Vans, Elvis and The Beatles, Vietnam, Kennedy, Family Vacations, Chevy Impala V8

Slide 4

2001: INTERNET, WILD STOCK RIDE, HONDA SUVs, BUSH/GLOBAL WARMING, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, B2 STEALTH, JOBS, GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION

Slide 5

LONG-TERM TRENDS LONG-TERM TRENDS

Slide 7

RECENT TRENDS

Slide 8

Trends Almost 90 percent of Americans participated in Outdoor Recreation Walking, picnicking, touring, swimming, angling, and bicycling the most famous exercises 1980's 94.5 percent took part List of interests getting longer, more assorted Walking, touring, swimming, picnicking, sculling most well known 1990's

Slide 9

NOW Over 97 percent report exercises Most are adding to their recreation menu Living longer means staying active longer

Slide 10

Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets Technology innovations are making more zones, more available: - Jet water crafts - Light-weight gear - Sub-zero games clothing - Sticky climbing shoes - Night scopes Risk/Adventure pursuits are picking up in fame: - Base bouncing - Falls shooting - Mountain boarding -“Jet skiing” Traditional outside exercises still developing (reasonably); consumptive exercises declining; review/learning activities on the ascent.

Slide 11

Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or more established, 1982-2001 Millions Growth No. in 2000 Walking 85.4 179.0 Bird watching 50.0 71.2 Hiking 48.4 73.1 Swimming/stream, lake, or ocean 36.4 92.9 Sightseeing 32.7 114.0 Picnicking 31.8 116.6 Bicycling 27.4 83.9 Developed camping 22.8 52.8 Motor boating 17.8 51.4 Off-street driving 17.3 36.7 Backpacking 14.6 23.4

Slide 12

Regions Where Participants Reside

Slide 13

Percentage of Americans 16 and Older

Slide 14

Percentage of Americans 16 and Older (2001)

Slide 15

Comparison of South Carolina, South, and Nation (Percentage Participating)

Slide 16

Our Changing American Society About 1 million new migrants for each year More individuals : 1990 248 mm 2000 275 mm 2020 325 mm 2050 404 mm 2075 481 mm 2100 571 mm (Double) Getting more seasoned : Median age 35 38 (by 2020) Changing ethnicities by 2050: Anglo Americans 76% 50% African Americans 12% 15% Hispanic Americans 9% 21% Asian Americans 4% 11%

Slide 17

Forecasts Projected Demand to 2020 Millions Indexed Change Participating (Base year is 1995) Activities (1995) People Days Trips Water-Based Going to the Beach 124 1.24 1.17 1.17 Motor Boating 47 1.21 1.14 1.16 Swimming 78 1.21 1.12 1.09 Fishing 58 1.17 1.17 1.10 Canoeing 14 1.15 1.28 1.14 Rafting/Floating 15 1.07 1.17 1.10 Winter-Based Cross-Country Skiing 6 1.26 0.96 1.12 Downhill Skiing 17 1.22 1.31 1.36 Snowmobiling 7 1.09 1.32 1.35 Forecasts

Slide 18

Forecasts Projected Demand to 2020 Millions Indexed Change Participating (Base year is 1995) Activities (1995) People Days Trips Land-Based Sightseeing 113 1.32 1.43 1.43 Non-destructive wildlife 117 1.29 1.09 1.15 Biking 57 1.28 1.25 1.45 Family Gatherings 124 1.24 1.23 0.83 Hiking 48 1.23 1.24 1.23 Horseback Riding 14 1.23 1.22 1.29 Rock Climbing 8 1.21 1.15 1.03 Walking 134 1.21 1.29 - Camping 42 1.19 1.36 1.30 Backpacking 15 1.11 1.15 1.08 Off-Road Driving 28 1.05 0.99 1.06 Hunting 19 0.91 0.99 1.03 Forecasts

Slide 19

DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF BOATERS

Slide 20

CANOERS 43 % female 87 % non-Hispanic white 33 % under 25, 77 % under 45 Incomes generally between $25K and $75K Under 80 % urban Favored by Northeasterners and Midwesterners

Slide 21

KAYAKERS 44 % female 85 % non-Hispanic white 60 percent under 35, 40% under 25 Over 1/3 acquire under $25K 85 % urban Heavier cooperation in New England and Pacific Coast states

Slide 22

SAILERS 48 % female 84% Non-Hispanic white 44 % under 35 Middle wage workers, likewise sig- nificant high wage workers 87 % urban Especially supported in the North- east

Slide 23

WINDSURFERS 67 % male Almost ½ under 25, 56 % under 35 1/3 between $25-$50K, 1/3 over $100K Northeast and Pacific Coast

Slide 24

MOTOR BOATERS 52% in the middle of $25 and $75 77% urban Favored in the Lake, Midwest and South Atlantic states 58 % somewhere around 25 and 55 57 % male

Slide 25

WATER SKIERS 60 % male 86 % white, 8 % Hispanic 86 % under 45 Favored by Prairie and Mountain states inhabitants

Slide 26

PERSONAL WATER CRAFT 54 % male 79 % white, 11 percent Hispanic 66 % under 35 Favored in the Midwest and South

Slide 27

Estimated proportions of rate of members to rate of aggregate populace for outside exercises by race and nation.

Slide 28

Estimated proportions of rate of members to rate of aggregate populace for outside exercises by age and pay.

Slide 29

BEING MORE EFFECTIVE IN OUTREACH, LISTENING, AND INFORMING

Slide 30

The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%) Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%) The Inactives (22.0%) Segmenting for more powerful correspondence and instruction Nature Lovers (27.2%) The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%) The Thrill Seekers (8.3%) Hunt-n-Fish Men’s Motor Club (6.3%) The Take it Easies (25.3%)

Slide 31

Nature Lovers (27.2%) Viewing/shooting winged animals, blooms, untamed life, fish, regular landscape, and social event mushrooms and berries, and learning in nature focuses, guest focuses, memorable destinations and archeological locales Not into chasing, angling, dynamic games or mechanized exercises, and not into sailing 61 % female, for the most part white, moderately aged and seniors, not outside conceived New England and Prairie states all around spoke to Donate to community or altruistic associations, invest energy with amazing kids, contribute, inventive expressions, gather things and garden, and read ecological magazines Believe people are mishandling the earth, the parity is fragile, and we are on a course for calamity

Slide 32

Hunt-n-Fish Men’s Motor Club (6.3%) Hunt, fish, mechanized, camp, speedboat (53%), kayak Don’t take an interest in shoreline exercises or much in survey/learning 88% male, 90% white, under 45, U.S. conceived, significantly more provincial, Prairie and Southern Belong to untamed life protection gathering, read nature magazines, carpentry, claim a business, greenhouse, have pets and do home changes Humans were intended to govern over the earth and ecological emergency is misrepresented

Slide 33

The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%) Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Sailing , Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing, Water Skiing , Jet Skiing . more dynamic than the vast majority in many exercises, aside from chasing 66% white, Asian/Pacific Islanders all around spoke to, dominant part under 35, U.S. conceived, and urban South Atlantic and Pacific Coast Regularly like to go to motion pictures, use web at home, take part in ecological gatherings, contribute, and go to classes, included as an adolescent volunteer, into expressions of the human experience Like most Americans feel people are mishandling the earth, we’re on a course for environmental disaster and the parity of nature is sensitive

Slide 34

Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%) Wind surfing (71%) , surfing, kayaking (48%), cruising (68%) , non-mechanized winter exercises, jumping, snorkeling, paddling (28%) and kayaking (55%) More dynamic than most Americans in all exercises, including water and plane skiing Over 85% white; 66% male; one half under 25; urban, U.S. conceived New England and Pacific Coast inhabitants unequivocally spoke to Into motion pictures, long lasting learning classes, take part with ecological gatherings, routinely go to films, fit in with a nation club, on the web and into the share trading system More emphatically accept natural emergency is incredibly misrepresented, despite the fact that we are nearing as far as possible

Slide 35

The Inactives (22.0%) Not extremely dynamic in open air exercises, aside from a touch of strolling, family social affairs, and picnicking 55% female, blacks and Hispanic all around spoke to, spread crosswise over age bunches, generally urban and U.S. conceived Spend time with grandchildren, cook at home, frequently go to religious administrations, gather things like coins and obsolescents More firmly trust human inventiveness will protect the earth, people were intended to administer over nature, people can control nature, and the ecological emergency is overstated

Slide 36

The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%) Cross-nation skiing, paddling (31%), kayaking (28%), paddling (53%) , downhill skiing, cruising (25%) , trekking, going to a wild, exploring, snowboarding, bicycling and angling They don’t chase, yet are dynamic in most different exercises Somewhat more male than female, white and Asian/Pacific Islander, youthful to moderately aged (not seniors), urban, from New England, Prairie, Mountain and Pacific states Members of preservation gatherings, utilize the web at home, go to shows, have excursion property, contribute, have a place with a nation club More conviction that we are mishandling the earth, the equalization of nature is sensitive and we may be setting out toward fiasco

Slide 37

The Thrill Seekers (8.3%) Waterskiing (62%), plane skiing (68%), rafting (46%) , snowmobiling, snowboarding, motorboating (83%) , downhill skiing, driving go 4x4 romping, paddling and paddling Very dynamic over a substantial number of exercises Equally male/female, white and American Indians all around spoke to, 66% under 35, all conceived in the U.S., from Plains states Youth volunteers, fit in with a nation club, utilize the web, go to motion pictures, wat