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Diagram. Basic issues in the setting of environmental change and forestsStatus of woodlands in IndiaImpacts of environmental change on timberland ecosystemsGreening India Mission and long haul observing India\'s reaction to environmental change. Woods and environmental change. Deforestation and area use change add to CO2 discharges
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Slide 1

Environmental Change & Forests; Impacts & powerlessness Prof. Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science Bangalore

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Outline Critical issues with regards to environmental change and timberlands Status of woods in India Impacts of environmental change on backwoods biological communities Greening India Mission and long haul observing India\'s reaction to environmental change

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Forests and environmental change Deforestation and land utilize change add to CO 2 emanations – IPCC; 20% of CO 2 discharges Forests give a vast potential to moderate environmental change -IPCC; 15 – 20% of CO 2 outflows Forests will be affected by environmental change and are profoundly helpless against atmosphere impacts Need for adjustment to empower woodlands to adapt to environmental change - - - - Forest division is basic in tending to environmental change Forest segment is extremely antagonistic in worldwide arrangements

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Figure 1: Forest cover guide of India of 2007 (FSI, 2009)

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Trends in region under woodland over the period 1987 to 2009 (as per FSI reports)

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Cumulative range afforested amid 1951 to 2005

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Status of Forests India has sensibly prevailing with regards to preserving woodlands – however corruption proceeds with India has successful backwoods preservation acts India is likewise actualizing one of the biggest afforestation programs India has propelled an expansive Greening India Mission - went for alleviation and adjustment to environmental change

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Impacts of Climate Change – IPCC discoveries Populations of debilitated species are relied upon to wind up distinctly wiped out 1/3 to 2/3 rd of known biodiversity at danger of termination Species piece and predominance will be modified, bringing about biological system changes Shifts in timberland sorts limit Altitude & Latitude Forest bite the dust back/mortality Climate change speedier than ability to relocate Increase and later reduction in biomass profitability Tipping point; Amazon could be swung to savannah

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Projected Climate Change for India

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Pre rainstorm (March–June) Tmax for the gauge time frame (1961–1990). anticipated future (2071–2100 short 1961–1990 mean) change. Anticipated future change in number of stormy (days with precipitation [2.5 mm) amid rainstorm season and the anticipated change in the power (mm/day) of precipitation on a blustery day

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Projection of Impact of Climate Change on Forests

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Global Vegetation Model: 1. BIOME4: Equilibrium display 2. IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator): dynamic worldwide Vegetation Model 3. Working at present on LPJ & CLM models Climate Model : GCM and RCM information from Hadley HadRM3 information (50x50 km 2 ) In future different GCMs will be utilized

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VALIDATION: Model reenacted current vegetation appropriation (right) contrasted and watched vegetation dissemination - 70% of networks effectively reproduced

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Forest sort dispersion and degree recreated by IBIS for the benchmark case and A1B (2035 and 2085) situations. (VT – alludes to Vegetation Types. The numbers allude to the accompanying vegetation sorts 1: tropical evergreen timberland/forest, 2: tropical deciduous backwoods/forest, 3. calm evergreen broadleaf backwoods/forest, 4: mild evergreen conifer timberland/forest, 5: mild deciduous backwoods/forest, 6: boreal evergreen timberland/forest, 7: boreal deciduous woodland/forest, 8: blended timberland/forest, 9: savanna, 10: meadow/steppe, 11: thick shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: leave, 15. polar abandon/shake/ice)

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NPP dispersion (kgC/m 2/year) recreated by IBIS for benchmark and A1B situations

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Vulnerable frameworks (stamped red) in the A1B situation – for all of India - (2035 and 2085)

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Red demonstrates that an adjustment in vegetation is anticipated at that lattice in the day and age of 2035 & 2085 - under A1B situation Green shows that no adjustment in vegetation is anticipated by that period.

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PROJECTED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTED GRIDS IN INDIA A2 SCENARIO 39% of the timberland frameworks likely change under A2 situation by 2085 bringing about loss of C stock and biodiversity Source: Chaturvedi et al., 2011 1 = stable lattices 2=forest matrices experiencing change

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Percentage of FSI networks anticipated to experience change, amassed by the major forested states – A1B Scenario

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Percentage of FSI networks anticipated to experience change, collected by Champion and Seth woods sorts – A!B

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Vulnerability Index and Profile Development

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Vulnerability Assessment - Indicators Climate change affect Indicators Bio-physical Indicators Socio-financial Indicators

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Criteria & Indicators for Mitigation ventures Disturbance file : A sign of the human aggravation for a specific backwoods fix. Increasingly the unsettling influence record, higher the timberland helplessness. Discontinuity status : A sign of how divided the backwoods fix is. Increasingly the discontinuity status, higher the backwoods helplessness. Natural abundance : Indicates the species differing qualities of the timberland fix , a measure of the quantity of types of widely varied vegetation, per unit territory. Higher the natural wealth, bring down the timberland defenselessness Impact of environmental change on carbon sinks of woodlands: For assessing environmental change impacts, IBIS, which is an element worldwide vegetation model, was utilized.

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Why Adaptation? At the point when vulnerability in Impact Assessment Impacts will be irreversible; e.g., loss of biodiversity Inertia because of changing atmosphere Long growth period in creating & execution of adjustment works on Waiting for full information – high hazard Large environmental, financial and social ramifications Focus on "win – win" adjustment alternatives

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Greening India Mission (GIM ) The Mission goes for tending to environmental change by Enhancing carbon soaks in reasonably oversaw woods and different biological systems Adaptation of helpless species/biological systems to changing atmosphere Enabling adjustment of woodland dependant groups .

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Key Issues with regards to Climate Change and Forests Tropical deforestation proceeds at almost 13 Mha every year (2000-2010 – FAO) CO2 discharges are at 1.6 GtC with high instability Cancun Agreement has included – REDD+; Need for operation – unpredictability of estimation, reporting, check, financing, installment, part for neighborhood groups.. CDM in ranger service has bombed because of methodological complexities and dangers of carbon misfortune Climate change is anticipated to effect backwoods Climate change + Degradation + poor administration of timberlands; expands weakness Need for woods and biodiversity protection & additionally meet the nourishment needs of poor – arrive for sustenance is a driver of deforestation

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Conclusions India has sensibly prevailing with regards to lessening deforestation, however corruption proceeds There are biodiversity rich problem areas and there is a huge reliance of groups on woodland biodiversity Climate change even in the short and medium term is probably going to antagonistically affect woodland biological communities Thus India has started a huge Greening Indian Mission – to advance Mitigation and Adaptation

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Limitations of IBIS model IBIS is known to have impediments in describing nitrogen flow (Cramer et al. 2001). It is known to over-mimic meadows (Bonan et al. 2003) IBIS has a tendency to mimic a genuinely solid CO2 preparation impact (Cramer et al. 2001; McGuire et al. 2001). IBIS display in its present shape does exclude a dynamic fire module (Foley et al. 1996). It doesn\'t represent changes in vermin assault profile THUS overestimation of future NPP and SOC. There is vulnerability in atmosphere projections, especially in precipitation at down-scaled provincial levels. Arrive utilize change and other anthropogenic impacts are not considered in this review. Afforestation and recovery (e.g. on relinquished croplands or badlands) are additionally not considered.

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