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Does Australian oil refining really matter? Des King CEO & Managing Director Caltex Australia Limited American Chamber of Commerce 8 November 2007. Outline. World energy demand growth oil demand and supply refining capacity Australia refining demand growth for fuels
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Slide 1

Does Australian oil refining truly matter? Des King CEO & Managing Director Caltex Australia Limited American Chamber of Commerce 8 November 2007

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Outline World vitality request development oil request and supply refining limit Australia refining request development for powers developing fuel imports

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World vitality request 2030 715 exajoules 2004 470 exajoules Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 An exajoule is 10 18 joules

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World vitality supply 2030 715 exajoules 2004 470 exajoules Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 An exajoule is 10 18 joules

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Global oil supply conjectures AVERAGE OF OIL COMPANY ESTIMATES Source: National Petroleum Council 2007

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Oil supply sources Total oil supply Unconventional supply 140 - Gap (MBD) Unconventional supply (MBD) 16 - NGLs, condensate, preparing picks up, and so on. NGLs, condensate, handling picks up, and so on. Biofuels 12 - Middle East, West Africa, and FSU Gas to Liquids 8 - Other XHO Venezuelan XHO 4 - North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe Canadian X-Heavy Oil (XHO) 0 - 0 - 2005 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Chevron

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World carbon dioxide discharges Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference Case

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Global refining ability to stay tight Million barrels for each day 100 Global refining limit 80 60 Global refined item request 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: P&G, IEA & PFC

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World outline Energy request will increment half by 2030 Oil, coal and gas will stay prevailing Alternatives to traditional unrefined petroleum required to take care of demand development Oil refinery limit will stay tight medium term

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Australian refining industry Caltex conveys diesel to the Ashton Coal Project, Hunter Valley

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Australia\'s refineries Kwinana Bulwer Is Northern Territory Lytton Queensland Western Australia Petroleum Products* Production: 34,000 ML Demand: 43,000 ML Product imports: 22% South Australia New South Wales Clyde Kurnell Pt Stanvac CLOSED Geelong Altona CAPACITY REDUCED M o bil M o bil * Petrol, diesel and stream fuel Source : Australian Institute of Petroleum, DITR

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Demand for petroleum items is expanding Petrol Diesel Jet fuel Australian item request and imports 0 - 1%pa 4%pa 3 - 4%pa Percentage of petroleum products* imported 2006-7 2015 2030 22% 30 - 40% 50 - 70% * Petrol, diesel and fly fuel Source : Caltex gauges

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Regional free market activity stays tight in medium term Million barrels for every day Asian Product Supply and Demand 30 Forecast Asian Demand 25 20 Asian Supply 15 10 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010 As at January 2007. Source: BP Statistical Review (1970–2006); East-West (2007); CAL Analysis

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Jamnagar refinery, India

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Refining area advantage US$2.75/barrel Product imports US$5.10/barrel cargo Crude imports US$2.35/barrel cargo Source : Freight rates are for Caltex refineries for 1H07 (Caltex information). Raw petroleum and petroleum item sources are for aggregate Australian imports (DITR information).

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Australian nursery gas outflows Total Australian GHG discharges 559 Mt CO 2eq Contribution of petroleum items Source : Australia\'s National Greenhouse Accounts, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2005

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Other administrative issues Biofuels Environmental prerequisites Fuel value control

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Does Australian refining truly matter? Vitality security is developing vital issue for all Australian industry Petroleum item imports are expanding – what level is the "tipping point" for frailty? Fluid fuel security can be accomplished – yet we need to perceive the issue and consider now

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