Presentation to Sound Region Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) RAPC January 26, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, FAA.


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Rundown of FAA Aerospace Forecasts. FAA Aerospace Forecasts Document-Fiscal Years 2006 ... Incorporates: avionics part of RTP (air terminal parts and gauges), ground access ...
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Presentation to Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) RAPC January 26, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, FAA AVIATION TRENDS

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INTRODUCTION Summary of FAA Aerospace Forecasts FAA Aerospace Forecasts Document-Fiscal Years 2006-2017 (2/06) Access:http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/flight/aerospace_forecasts/2006-2017/Related Programs Runway Development Regional Studies Very Light Jets

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DEFINITIONS Enplanements: income traveler boardings GDP: Gross Domestic Product Available seat miles: aircraft industry measure of traveler conveying limit Revenue traveler miles: carrier industry measure of traveler interest Revenue ton miles: aircraft industry measure of load interest Yield: one carrier industry measure of monetary execution. Yield= admission/miles voyaged Airfield: runway, runway, overskirt, approach/flight methodology Landside: terminal, sheds, airplane terminal structures, stopping, on-air terminal ground access

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DEFINITIONS Mainline bearers: segment food to partnered transporters (i.e. territorial), for the most part work air ship with 100+ seats (Embraer 190 in mainline) Legacy transporters: AA, CO, DL, NW, UA, US Low Cost Carriers (LCC): Southwest, Jet Blue, Frontier, AirTran Other: Alaska, Aloha, Hawaiian, Midwest Regional bearers: sustain movement to mainline bearers, by and large work air ship under 100 seats. SkyWest, Mesa, Comair. All load transporters: Federal Express, UPS, DHL, and so on. Air Taxi administrators: for contract, non-booked OEP: Operational Evolution Plan-implies by which FAA tracks enhancements at the busiest airplane terminals

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FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS No fruitful fear based oppressor episode against either the U.S. on the other hand world aeronautics (page 25) No further real withdrawals of the carrier business through chapter 11, solidification or liquidation (page 25) Fuel value/accessibility does not turn into an issue (pg 27) U.S. Gross domestic product development: 3.1%/year (2005-2017) (Table 2 App) World GDP development: 3.1%/year (2005-2017) (Table 3 Appendix) Latin American development: 3.8%/year Pacific development: 3.6%/year China 7.0%/year (page 28) India 5.8%/year (page 28)

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U.S. Business AIR CARRIER GROWTH-SYSTEM 2005 record 739 M enplanements-(page 3) System Capacity: Measured by Available Seat Miles-figure development of 4.2% year (2008-2017) (page 29) Passenger Enplanements: estimate development of 3.4%/year (2008-2017) (page 30) Oakland: development 4.24%/year (2006-2025) FAA TAF San Francisco: development 3.33%/year (2006-2025) TAF San Jose: development 4.58%/year (2006-2025) TAF Regional transporter development (4.3%/year) gauge to surpass mainline development (3.1%/year) (page 30) Trip length to develop by 120 miles (to 1172 mi)- speedier development in worldwide treks, expanded point to point

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COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIER-DOMESTIC Legacy bearers will keep on fining tune plans of action (pg 30) Domestic ASM development (2008-2017)- 3.8%/year with most development in local and LCC fragments (pg 30) Mainline bearer yield conjecture to decay 0.8%/year (genuine terms) as legacy transporters match LCC tolls on aggressive courses (page 32) Domestic mainline flying machine size has been contracting for a long time (120.4 seats 2005). Legacy transporters supplanting bigger air ship with littler tight body flying machine. Conjecture seats to further therapist until 2011 and after that recoup marginally (119.2 in 2017) (page 32) Regional transporters including 70-90 traveler planes. Normal seat increment from 49.4 (2005) to 55.1 (2017) (page 32)

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U.S. Furthermore, FOREIGN FLAG CARRIER INTERNATIONAL Passenger development 5.0%/year 2005-2017 (Table 8 App) Passenger development for fragments 2005-2017 (Table 8 APP): Pacific: 7.0%/year Latin America: 4.9%/year Atlantic: 4.3%/year Seats accessible/flight gauge to develop from 214 (2005) to 221 (2017) (Table 9, App)

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U.S. Business A/C-AIR CARGO Significant changes in the business incorporate (pg 35): Air load security controls TSA and FAA Mature residential express market Shift from air to truck U.S. Postal Service utilization of all load transporters Assumptions (page 35): Security confinements will stay set up Most of movement from air to ground has happened All payload bearers have expanded air freight offer from 64.6% (1996) to 80.8% (2005) (page 36) Revenue Ton Miles: 2005 to 2017-local increment 3.2%/year; global increment 6.3%/year (Table 19)

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COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEETS Total development in armada: 2.8%/year (2005-2017) (Table 20, App.) Most of development in LCC and provincial sections (page 37) Almost all development of territorial armada is in 70 to 90 traveler planes (page 37) Most of development in freight flying machine armada will be in wide-body airplane (page 38)

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GENERAL AVIATION Business utilization of general avionics air ship will become quicker than individual/sport use (page 38) Increase in fragmentary, corporate, on-interest contract use driven by: Corporate wellbeing and security concerns Increased handling time at U.S. business airplane terminals Very light streams (VLJ) (page 38): Discussed further in later slides Market of 400 to 500 air ship for each year 4950 air ship by 2017 FAA conjecture is mid-range figure Increased utilization of local planes and light flies will add intricacy to national airspace framework

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SUMMARY OF FORECASTED TRENDS Airline Industry development more grounded than GDP development International development more grounded than local development Growth solid for air terminals that serve as Pacific or Latin America doors Regional and LCC portions will become quicker No sensational movements in normal seats per residential flight Load variables will stay high (>78%)

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RUNWAY IMPROVEMENTS AT OEP AIRPORTS Since 1999, 13 new runways have opened at 35 OEP air terminals (Mostly vast center essential air terminals) PHL, PHX, DTW, CLE, DEN, MIA, IAH, MCO, MSP, CVG, STL, ATL, BOS) Through 2011, 6 OEP air terminals will commission 8 landing strip ventures PHL, LAX, SEA, IAD, ORD (3 ventures), CLT Six other landing strip undertakings are in arranging or ecological stage for OEP air terminals FLL, PHL, PDX, Las Vegas Metro, Chicago Metro, IAD

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TECHNOLOGY/PROCEDURE CHANGES Runway and runway enhancements regularly include the most runway limit and contribute most to runway delay diminishment Improvements in innovation (ground and flying machine based) and air activity techniques enhance runway limit, especially under certain working conditions These upgrades talked about in ensuing presentation

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REGIONAL AIRPORT STUDIES New England Regional Airport System Plan (six state district) Complete 9/06 Support capacity of framework to ingest flood from BOS New York Metro Area Air Service Demand Study Status: continuous, Phase 1 complete May 2007 Identify New York local air traveler request Analyze capacity of LGA, EWR, JFK to take care of demand and capacity of six provincial air terminals (N.Y., N.J., Pa.) to expect extra share of territorial interest Southern California Regional Transportation Plan-SCAG Status: progressing Includes: avionics part of RTP (air terminal parts and gauges), ground get to needs, local airspace examination, local air terminal administration usage arrangement

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VERY LIGHT JETS Aircraft measuring < 10,000 pounds Cost: $1 M to $3.5 M Six seats (counting group) FAA gauges 4950 units by 2017 Perspective: 8500 non-VLJ business planes in ebb and flow armada FAA estimates 70 to 75 percent of VLJ to be utilized as a part of air taxi administration Air taxi showcase difficult to anticipate. Best figure is auxiliary air terminals in metropolitan zones on the coast (especially Atlantic and Gulf coasts for the present)

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VERY LIGHT JETS Can utilize 3000 to 3500 foot runway Longer runway might be required for air taxi use VLJ can be obliged at most air terminals in their reasonable business sector w/o critical landing strip changes Air taxi may require enhancements in methodology minima Landside needs include: Jet A fuel offices Hangar space Larger GA terminal with extended offices Increased FBO staff Rental autos/eatery

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CONTACT Patrick J. Sullivan, P.E. Telephone: 202-267-3707 (after 2/9/07) E-mail: patrick.sullivan@faa.gov

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THANKS

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