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PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA.


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PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA. Twelve Theses, Three Recommendations, And One Exhortation University of North Texas March 2007 Peter H. Smith. THE PLAN. Introduction and Background The Electoral Arena Channels of Representation State Capacity and Policy Performance
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PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA Twelve Theses, Three Recommendations, And One Exhortation University of North Texas March 2007 Peter H. Smith

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THE PLAN Introduction and Background The Electoral Arena Channels of Representation State Capacity and Policy Performance Conclusion

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THESIS # 1 Electoral popular government—with free and reasonable races—has achieved exceptional levels in Latin America.

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DEFINITIONS OF ELECTORAL REGIMES Democracy = free and reasonable races Semi-majority rules system = decisions free yet not reasonable; or, champ not contributed with authentic force Competitive theocracy = races reasonable however not free; competitors and suffrage limited to financial tip top Autocracy = nothing unless there are other options, or year of military upset

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THESIS # 2 It has gotten to be workable for the "left" to secure force through the discretionary procedure, offering ascend to what has come to be known as the "pink tide."

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THE PINK TIDE Hugo Chávez, Venezuela (1998, 2004, 2006) Lula, Brazil (2002, 2006) Néstor Kirchner, Argentina (2003) Evo Morales, Bolivia (2005) Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua (2006) Rafael Correa, Ecuador (2006) Near-Misses: Ollanta Humala, Peru (2006) Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico (2006)

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CURRENTS IN THE TIDE Spontaneous not sorted out: local issues and concerns Chavista backfire Shifts in participation : separating by Vázquez contention between Lula, Chávez Polarization and prevalent coalitions : 30-50 % disappointed 20-40 % fulfilled (?) "

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THESIS # 3 Recent races have delivered significant ideological assorted qualities in Latin America.

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ELECTORAL OUTCOMES 8 administrations of "left" 3 legislatures of focus 7 legislatures of "right"

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THESIS # 4 Recent races have tested (or decimated) basic hypotheses in U.S. demeanors toward Latin America.

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AXIOMS IN AMERICA'S VIEW OF WORLD— AND OF LATIN AMERICA The Cherished Assumption—uninhibitedly chose pioneers will bolster U.S. strategy The Western Hemisphere thought—the new world is particular from old, will produce basic front in global field Democracy method of reasoning for "administration change" The hegemonic assumption—the United States can manage political life in Latin America.

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THESIS # 5 Civil freedoms are every now and again compelled in Latin American governmental issues.

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TYPES OF RESTRICTIONS Muzzling of press (and ambushes on columnists) Constraints on gatherings, showings Unlawful confinements Complicity with paramilitary associations Biased use of law Capricious legal choices

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THESIS # 6 The blend of discretionary popular government with orderly imperatives on common freedoms has made "illiberal majority rules system" the most well-known type of political association all through the locale. Liberal majority rules system = free races in addition to broad common freedoms Illiberal popular government = free decisions with limitations on common freedoms

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Rights, Elections, and Regimes

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LIBERAL AND ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACIES, 1978-2004

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THESIS # 7 Political gatherings are frail in numerous nations of Latin America.

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THESIS # 8 Legislative branches of government are frail in many nations of Latin America.

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LEGISLATIVE ISSUES Electoral Systems: PR and multi-party governmental issues Closed-list versus open-list tickets The issue of term cutoff points Institutional Performance: Scant assets (staff, spending plan, and so on.) Essentially "receptive" governing bodies Removing presidents?

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THESIS # 9 States need assets and abilities in many nations of Latin America.

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THESIS # 10 Democratic states have been not able lessen neediness or disparity in many nations of the area; a standout amongst the most earnestly required changes concerns financial arrangement.

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THESIS # 11 Many Latin American nationals are baffled with the execution of their vote based governments; yet they are communicating their dissatisfaction through decisions.

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THESIS #12 Democracy has come to Latin America primarily through residential endeavors and advancements, instead of the impact or case of different nations—including the United States.

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(MIDTERM) GRADES Leadership determination/elections = A Durability = A-Representation = C + Policy Performance = C-

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RECOMMENDATION # 1 The United States ought to acknowledge the ideological differences of legislative issues in Latin America.

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RECOMMENDATION # 2 U.S. pioneers ought to welcome the vital estimation of Latin America.

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RECOMMENDATION # 3 The United States ought to effectively draw in every popularity based pioneer in Latin America, even those with hostile to American perspectives

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AN EXHORTATION FOR THE UNITED STATES Focus on governmental issues—past the war on fear, past organized commerce; perceive extraordinary nature of current open door Adopt long haul perspective of national interest Hands off! Try not to intercede in races or energize topples of chose pioneers As circumstances emerge, support foundations and "extending" of majority rule government in Latin America Re-inspect The Cherished Assumption

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AND NOW… .?