Significance of Sort II Blunder and Falsifiability.


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Significance of Sort II Blunder and Falsifiability Hiroyuki MATSUDA Univ. of Tokyo, IWC/SC Japan Delegate WWF Japan Panel Part This Powerpoint document will be transferred on http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt 1 Preparatory guideline Rio Revelation 1992, Rule 15
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Significance of Type-II Error and Falsifiability Hiroyuki MATSUDA Univ. of Tokyo, IWC/SC Japan Delegate WWF Japan Committee Member This Powerpoint record will be transferred on http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt 1

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Precautionary guideline Rio Declaration 1992, Principle 15 “In request to secure nature, the safety oriented methodology should be generally connected by States as per their capacities . Where there are dangers of genuine or irreversible harm , absence of full logical conviction should not be utilized as an explanation behind putting off practical measures to avoid ecological debasement. 2 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Convention on Biological Diversity JUNE 1992 “Noting additionally that where there is a risk of huge lessening or loss of natural differing qualities, absence of full logical sureness ought not be utilized as a purpose behind deferring measures to stay away from or minimize such a danger, 3 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change “Where there are dangers of genuine or ir-reversible harm, absence of full investigative assurance ought not be utilized as an explanation behind putting off such measures, considering that arrangements and measures to manage environmental change ought to be financially savvy to guarantee worldwide advantages at the most minimal conceivable expense. 4 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Galileo’s Inquisition Scientists … After Before the Earth Summit in 1992, ought to give no remarks to open without full exploratory confirmation; keep their outcome regardless of general supposition must give some make their feeling an open accord or win votes No scholastic standard for what we ought to say has been set up. 5 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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IUCN Redlist Criteria (2001) 11 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Risk investigation depends on an edge of sort II lapse. Sort II: The likelihood that an animal categories goes wiped out when it is not recorded as jeopardized. Sort I: The likelihood that an animal varieties perseveres when it is recorded as imperiled (little). On the other hand, If the elimination danger of an animal groups is >10% inside next 100 years, it is recorded as jeopardized. 12 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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G. Mace et al. 1992 : Species 19 :16. (The legitimacy of foundation A:) “ it can bring about the posting of a few animal types with extensive, obviously secure populaces ” . (Sort I blunder) “ However, connecting [the rates of de-cline] to populace size would avoid the posting of numerous populaces with constrained registration information. ” (Type-II blunder) 14 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Mrosovsky N (1997) Nature 389 :436 15 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Allow model E to over-tenet other criteria !? In the event that we don\'t assess elimination hazard, we concur with posting an animal types by criteria other than Criterion E. We can\'t help contradicting posting it by criteria A-D if assessed elimination danger is clearly low. No agreement was made in IUCN Marine Workshop. www.iucn.org/topics/ssc/redlists/marine/marine3.htm About 2/3 of IUCN Criteria Workshop members couldn\'t help contradicting this choice. 16 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Risk is typically assessed under skeptical presumptions. IUCN/SSC (p.25) “Assessors ought to oppose an evidentiary state of mind and embrace a prudent however reasonable disposition to instability when using so as to ape the criteria, for instance, conceivable lower limits, instead of best gauges , in deciding populace size...” Therefore, termination danger in light of critical assessments is one-sided (- fit to maintain a strategic distance from sort II lapses) We could take danger in light of best gauges, and measure sort I blunders (the heaviness of proof). http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Japanese plant Red Data Book Questionnaires: The quantity of plants and decrease rate in each of 4437 guide lattices in each of ca.2100 undermined? plant species. Ascertain downright populace size, rate of populace decrease, elimination danger of every species. >1500 species are recorded in RDB. http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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>1000 <0.01 <0.1 <0.5 <1 >1 ? absolute >1000 2 1 4 8 + 1.7 + 3.2 >100 2 1 3 2 5 15 +12.8 >10 5 16 19 6 2 12 60 + 2.5 >1 1 3 2 1 2 12 ? 1 22 23 complete 8 23 24 12 6 45 118 +2.8 Unbiased supposition = relative separation Pessimistic suspicion = overlooking obscure networks 38210 Frequency dissemination of matrices The instance of primura sieboldii Decline rate inside of recent years Population size 23 elimination 13 N p = f 1 N 1 + f 2 N 2 + f 3 N 3 + f 4 N 5 =31977 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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We characterize the heaviness of proof in plant RDB Extinction danger: taking into account skeptical presumptions (disregarding obscure lattices) Weight of confirmation: taking into account unprejudiced presumptions (corresponding gap) For 8 CR taxa, 32 EN taxa and 14 VU taxa among 1325 taxa, the heaviness of confirmation inside of the years being referred to did not fulfill the termination hazard criteria. http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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The heaviness of proof reductions with expanding number of size obscure lattices EN? VU? VU? NT? NT? http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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How to handle the heaviness of evidence… We don\'t need down-posting even if there should arise an occurrence of difference between situations with critical and fair-minded appraisals (PP) We ought to demonstrate the heaviness of confirmation for future audit process (responsibility) Like climate focast (danger of shower) http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Fallacy of applying PP to Maximum Sustainable Yield 6 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Threat of biodiversity is not kidding if the populace is beneath MVP Minimum practical populace (MVP) is characterized as risk of demographic stochasticity (e.g., all moms make children = 50) and hereditary corruption (=500). The “50/500” law does not ensure a zero-hazard. In the event that populace size > 10,000, the interim to annihilation is as a rule dreadfully long (I overlook > 1 million yrs). 8 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Should any few danger be maintained a strategic distance from? (IWC 2001 report, p.93) Exploitation of whales with ecological variability was still “equivalent to an unsustainable ‘mining’” (still positive danger) Under the RMP, “the time scales were dreadfully long (10 45 years)” (>>the period of universe) “ the long time-scale was important to inspect the association\'s systems between natural variability and abuse. ” ???? 9 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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MSY point of confinement stock level RMP minds only 10% slips Production Catch amount Fishing rate MSY at 60%, 0 get at 54% http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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No lower stock cutoff Fishing is conceivable until stock breakdown Fisheries Management Rule I US and Japan Uncertainty exists in whaling, as well as all fisheries. http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Fallacy of applying PP to MSY If we receive one-sided (preparatory) appraisals, expected yield is again adversely one-sided. MSY ought to be founded on unprejudiced, in all probability gauges (Error in quantity is reversible = versatile administration) MVP ought to be founded on one-sided assessments, or PP. (Lost of biodiversity is irreversible) MSY is normally >>MVP, however is <MVP in some nearby populace. 10 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Precautionary Approach? dN/dt = r [1 – ( N/K ) q ] N – fN, Maximize yield at f MSY = rq/(1 + q ). In the event that gauges of r , K , q and f incorporates vulnerability, MSY is not accomplished, nor termination danger is not wiped out. f < f MSY (Precautionary methodology) is danger variable not to accomplish MSY. http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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f MSY is neither adequate nor important to stock protection Low instability in r High vulnerability in r http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Conclusion: What is required for PP Usually dodge Type II slips (hazard unwilling) Say a falsifiable forecast (obligation of present evaluation to the future) Show the heaviness of Evidence from impartial gauges Non-lament strategy (Acceptance of high hazard from “good” behavior) 17 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Anchovy Horse mackerels Pacific saury Chub mackerel Sardine Catch in Japan (1000 mt) Species Replacement of Pelagic Fishes http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Cyclic Advantage Hypothesis The following predominant to sardine is anchovy – Yes! As I anticipated The second next is chub mackerel Many individuals concur now Matsuda et al. (1992) Res. Pop. Ecol. 34 :309-319 http://cod.ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matsuda/2002/021024.ppt

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Future of Pelagic Fish Populations in the north-western Pacific: If overfishing of chub mackerel proceeds with, Chub mackerel won\'t recoup everlastingly; If cyclic substitution speculation is genuine, Sardine won\'t recuperate always; Do not get juvenile mackerel an excess of The overfishing is an analysis for my theory. (Versatile mis administration)

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