Scenarios for the Future.

Situations for the Future What’s In Store for Tomorrow’s Climate?

A Lot of Hot Air? UNFCCC, 1992: “…to accomplish adjustment of nursery gas fixations in the air at a level that would counteract hazardous anthropogenic obstruction with the atmosphere framework .” Kyoto Protocol, 1998: “Parties might endeavor to actualize approaches and measures so as to minimize unfriendly impacts , including the unfavorable impacts of environmental change, consequences for global exchange, and social, ecological and financial effects on other Parties…”

The Greenhouse Effect Gasses in our air, including water vapor and carbon dioxide, keep the sun's warmth in and help make our planet decent. Without this normal protection, the normal temperature on Earth would be - 18˚C , as opposed to 15˚C ! What’s the Problem?

Common GHGs : water vapor (H 2 O) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) methane (CH 4 ) nitrous oxide (N 2 O) ozone (O 3 ) and halocarbons (CFCs, HFCs, and so on.) Atmospheric organization : Nitrogen: 78.09% Oxygen: 20.9% Argon: 0.93% Carbon dioxide: 0.035% All different gasses: 0.05% Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs)

Climate Explained (sort of…) © Environment Canada

Natural Sources : Volcanic ejections Water vapor Forest flames Decomposition of carbonate rocks Methane outflows from bogs and bogs. Anthropogenic Sources : Energy from smoldering of fossil powers (transportation, warming & cooling, producing) Deforestation Methane from horticulture, mining, landfills, and so forth. Normal and Anthropogenic

Anthropogenic Emissions Can you tell which nations are further industrialized? Are real emitters of nursery gasses? © NASA, NOAA

Annual Emissions of CO2 (aggregate million tons/tons for every capita) Japan: 1150.9/9.2 (5.2%) United Kingdom: 564.8/9.7 (2.5%) China: 3006.8/2.5 (13.6%) Canada: 470.8/16 (2.1%) Brazil: 287.5/1.8 (1.3%) United States: 5228.5/19.6 (23.6%) World: 22149.6/3.9

What Happened? What’s Next? All inclusive, the most recent decade has been the hottest on record. Worldwide mean surface temperature has expanded by 0.6˚C amid the most recent century. “There is new and more grounded proof that the vast majority of the warming saw in the course of the most recent 50 years is inferable from human exercises ” (IPCC, 2001)

Assumptions made by UN IPCC researchers in 2001: Very fast financial development Populations cresting at mid-century and declining from that point Rapid presentation of new and more productive innovations A1FI: Fossil-Intensive A1T: Non-fossil vitality sources A1B: A parity over all sources The A1 Scenarios

From A1FI to A1T

Canada’s Climate in 1961

A1T Non-Fossil

A1B Balanced

A1FI Fossil Intensive

What Can We Expect? © CIDA © NFB © NFB © IISD

What Can We Do? One-Ton Challenge No-discharge transportation at whatever point conceivable Turn down indoor regulator and utilization aeration and cooling system as final resort Eat new neighborhood nourishments however much as could reasonably be expected! Different thoughts? http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/onetonne/english/© Environment Canada

What Do You Think? Is this conceivable? Is it true that we are misrepresenting? Is it past the point where it is possible to settle the issue? Are governments doing what's needed? Do you anticipate that these situations will develop? By what method would we b