S.K. Roy Bhowmik NWP, IMD, New Delhi.


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S.K. Roy Bhowmik NWP, IMD, New Delhi Local NWP Displaying at IMD Review Absorption of Doppler Climate RADAR (DWR) Perception Preparing for Nowcasting Applications Ingest into digestion cycle of NWP models Parameters: spiral wind, reflectivity and range width
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Slide 1

S.K. Roy Bhowmik NWP, IMD, New Delhi Regional NWP Modeling at IMD

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Overview

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Assimilation of Doppler Weather RADAR (DWR) Observation Processing for Nowcasting Applications Ingest into absorption cycle of NWP models Parameters: outspread wind, reflectivity and range width DWR Stations: Chennai, Machalipatnam, Vishakapatnam and Kolkata, Sriharikota (ISRO)

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NHEC (Telecom server,IMD) DWR Net-work for information preparing NCMRWF

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A RADAR mosaic creation from reflectivity perceptions DWR Chennai and Machhilipatnam of 28 September 2005

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Nov’08 Ccyclone “ Khai Muk” A RADAR mosaic creation from reflectivity perceptions Well checked on 13 Nov 2008 over south Bay of Bengal, amassed into a despondency at night. Moved in a northwesterly course, escalated into a strengthened into a cyclonic tempest, “ Khai Muk” It came to its greatest force close lat. 14.5ⰠN and long. 83.0ⰠE around 0230 hours IST of fifteenth with assessed managed most extreme wind velocity of 40 bunches and evaluated focal weight of 994 hpa.

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Example of the 30 minute precipitation (mm) gauges for the rainstorm of 2 September 2005 from a solitary DWR at Chennai and the comparing programmed downpour gages used to accept the information.

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Numerical investigations for digestion of DWR (spiral wind and reflectivity) information of Chennai with ARPS model for twister Ogni of October 2006 Cyclone Ogni of Oct’06

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Simulation of Bay Cyclone Ogni of October 2006 Impact of DWR Chennai information in the ARPS Analysis and estimate 9-km absorption : GFS model give foundation and limit conditions 0000Z 30 OCT 06 0000Z 29 OCT 06 0030Z 0230Z 0300Z 0130Z 0200Z 0100Z figure conjecture gauge conjecture gauge figure Forecast (21 hrs) ADAS IMDS.20061029.0004 IMDS.20061029.0304 Background and limit values from GFS model into the ARPS network. The Diagram is demonstrating ½ hourly osmosis cycle ( initial 3 hours) & then 21 hours ARPS Model estimate -

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Contd. 88D2ARPS - Doppler Weather Radar information in up8 configuration has been gathered from IMD Chennai. DWR information in up8 arrangement has been changed over into netcdf group. 88D2ARPS has been utilized for remapping IMD Chennai radar information ( Radial Wind & Reflectivity) to a Cartesian framework . For three hourly Data digestion , half hourly Radar information document containing both reflectivity & outspread speed, beginning from 00 UTC, has been created. Ex - Name of document Time length of time of Data (1) IMDS.20061029.0004 23:46 UTC 28-10-2006 TO 00:15 UTC 29-10-2006 (2) IMDS.20061029.0034 00:16 UTC 29-10-2006 TO 00:45 UTC 29-10-2006 (3) IMDS.20061029.0104 00:46 UTC 29-10-2006 TO 01:15 UTC 29-10-2006 (4) IMDS.20061029.0134 01:16 UTC 29-10-2006 TO 01:45 UTC 29-10-2006 (5) IMDS.20061029.0204 01:46 UTC 29-10-2006 TO 02:15 UTC 29-10-2006 (6) IMDS.20061029.0234 02:16 UTC 29-10-2006 TO 02:45 UTC 29-10-2006 (7) IMDS.20061029.0304 02:46 UTC 29-10-2006 TO 03:15 UTC 29-10-2006

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ARPS + Radar Data Assimilation GFS ANALYSIS

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ARPS + Radar Data Assimilation ARPS FORECAST

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ARPS + Radar Data Assimilation ARPS FORECAST

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ARPS + Radar Data Assimilation ARPS FORECAST

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ARPS + Radar Data Assimilation ARPS FORECAST

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Nov’08 Ccyclone “ Khai Muk”

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Bay Cyclone Khai-mukh of Nov 2008 Control ADAS

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Control Adas

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Control Adas

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Experiments with WRF-Var Assimilation System Model: WRF-ARW Model Assimilation: 3DVAR Data: Observation (Synop, Temp, Pilot, Buoy, Ship and CMVs) First Guess and Boundary NCEP GFS Resolution (30 km/L51) Bay Cyclone Rashmi of October 2008

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Forecast Vorticity (10 - 5 s - 1 ) 24 hour estimate substantial at 00 UTC of 25-10-2008 WRF-VAR ( var ) test 48 hour figure legitimate at 00 UTC of 26-10-2008

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Meridional Cross Section of Vertical Velocity (cms - 1 ) 24 hour conjecture legitimate at 00 UTC of 25-10-2008 WRF-VAR ( var ) explore No perception ( cntl ) test 48 hour gauge substantial at 00 UTC of 26-10-2008

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Performance of operational NWP models for Cyclone Track Prediction A gloom over the SE Bay of Bengal at 0300 UTC of 27th April 200812.00 N and long. 87.00 E., strengthened into a cyclonic tempest and lay at 0000 UTC of 28th , an extreme cyclonic tempest at 0900 UTC of 28th and into an exceptionally serious cyclonic tempest at 0300 UTC of 29th. It moved in easterly bearing while heightening further and crossed southwest bank of Myanmar between 1200 to 1400 UTC of second May close lat. 16.00 N VSCS Nargis of April 08

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ECMWF MM5 QLM 72 hours Forecast Initial Condition 29 April 00 UTC UKMO WRF

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MM5 ECMWF QLM WRF 48 Hrs Forecast Initial condition 30 April 00UTC UKMO

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QLM ECMWF MM5 UKMO WRF 24 hours figure Initial Condition 1 May 00 UTC QLM with introductory condition 2 May 00 UTC

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Inter-examination of Model Performance for “Naargis” April’08

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Model Error measurements (km) for Nargis

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Statistical Dynamical model for Prediction of: Cyclone genesis Intensity

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Cyclone Genesis Parameter Two Dynamical variables Low level relative vorticity (  850 ) Vertical wind shear (S) Two Thermo dynamical variables (i) Middle troposphere relative dampness (M) (ii) Middle-trpospheric shakiness (I) Mausam (2003), Nat. Risks (2008)

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GPP =  850 *M*I/S if  850 > 0, M > 0 and I > 0 = 0 if  850 ≤ 0, M ≤ 0 or I ≤ 0 Where ,  850 = Low level relative vorticity (at 850 hPa) in 10-5 s-1 S = Magnitude of Vertical wind shear somewhere around 200 and 850 hPa (ms - 1 ) [ RH - 40 ] M = - = Middle tropospheric 30 relative mugginess Where RH is the mean relative stickiness somewhere around 700 and 500 hPa I = (T 850 – T 500 ) °C = Middle-trpospheric unsteadiness (Temperature distinction between 850 hPa and 500 hPa)

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VSCS SIDR of Nov 2007 Comparison of composite Genesis potential parameter (GPPx10 - 5 ) and Genesis potential parameter of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (SIDR) over the Bay of Bengal of 11-15 November 2007. (T=6.0).

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GENESIS PARAMETER OF TC “NISHA” of Nov 2008

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Comparison of composite Genesis potential parameter (GPPx10 - 5 ) and Genesis potential parameter of Cyclonic Storm over the Bay of Bengal of 15-19 October 2000. (T=2.5). The beginning low-weight framework shaped over Central Bay of Bengal and strengthened into wretchedness (T.No. 1.5) on 0000 UTC of 15 October. The framework continued over the Bay of Bengal for over four days and voyaged more than 700 km (14.5/88.5 to 14.5/82.0), however greatest force never surpassed T.No. 2.5. At long last it dispersed over the Sea.

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Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP) Model 62 test instances of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) those framed over the Bay of Bengal amid the period 1981 to 2000. Fifteen free violent winds were utilized to test the model those framed over the Bay of Bengal amid the period 2000 to 2007. The indicators: (a) Persistence : (i) Initial tempest force (ISI) (ii) Previous 12 hours change in the power (IC12) (b) Thermodynamical elements : (i) Storm movement speed (SMS) (ii) Sea surface temperature (SST) (c) Dynamical variables : (i) Initial tempest scope position (ISL) (ii) Vertical wind shear (850-200) hPa found the middle value of along tempest track (VWS) (iii) Vorticity at 850 hPa (V850) (iv) Divergence at 200 hPa (D200) Natural Hazards (2007) ; J. Earth Sys. Sci. (2008), Geofizika (2008)

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Formulation of the model: The model is produced utilizing different straight relapse method y = an o + a 1 x 1 + a 2 x 2 + ……….+ a n x n Where y is the indigent variable (predictant) and x 1, x 2, …...…. x n are free variables (indicators). The relapse coefficients a 1, a 2, …...…. a n are resolved utilizing an expansive information set (62 twisters). The SCIP model assessments changes of force at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hours. Six separate relapse examinations are completed for estimate interim 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hour. 12 hours force change by various direct relapse strategy is characterized as: dv t = an o + a 1 IC12 + a 2 SMS +a 3 VWS + a 4 D200 + a 5 V850 +a 6 ISL + a 7 SST + a 8 ISI for t = conjecture hour 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72

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Twelve-hourly Intensity Prediction up to 36 hours for tornado SIDR Nov 2007 Based on 14/00 UTC Based on 15/00 UTC

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INTENSITY PREDICTION OF TC “RASHMI” of October 2008

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Performance of the model: For ward test of 62 typhoons (1981-2000): For free specimen of 15 twisters (2000-2007):

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IMD Multimodel Ensemble Technique Generation of Multi-Analysis Weights Step-1 NCEP JMA ECMWF Observed Gridded Field Weight for every lattice of every Model (W)

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Generation of Multi-model Forecasts Step-2 NCEP JMA ECMWF Forecast (F)= W i F i + D D= Value expansion

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Multi-model Ensemble at 0.25 o determination Member Models ECMWF at 0.25 o determination JMA a

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