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Some Simple Physics of Global Warming.


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Some Simple Physics of Global Warming Jeff Tsao Physical, Chemical and Nano Sciences Center Sandia National Laboratories
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Slide 1

Some Simple Physics of Global Warming Jeff Tsao Physical, Chemical and Nano Sciences Center Sandia National Laboratories Sandia is a multiprogram lab worked by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

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Controversy, multifaceted nature, and instability http://www.ipcc.ch/

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Topics The Earth's Delicate Heat Balance Earth’s Temperature History The Earth's Sluggish Carbon Balance Humanity's Appetite for Energy and Carbon What Can We Do?

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Earth’s Delicate Heat Balance

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Simple computation of the earth’s temperature Power emanating from the earth Fraction of force that catches the earth Power transmitting from the sun Stefan’s Law Predicted (Stockholm) Actual (Albuquerque)

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H 2 O: Ice, Clouds, Water Vapor Reflection from mists Reflection from the surface (counting ice and snow) Emission by mists Absorption by water vapor Absorption by mists http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/Adapted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect

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Greenhouse gasses % of earth’s air 1 0.04 Adapted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect 20.9 Oxygen 78 Nitrogen

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Earth’s Temperature History

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The 450,000-year temperature history 18 16 14 12 10 Approximate normal earth temperature ( ° C) 8 6 4 2 Adapted from http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/change.htm

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The 1,000-year temperature and CO 2 history The vanishing rate of the uncommon, substantial 18 O isotope of H 2 O is slower than that of the regular, light 16 O isotope of H 2 O, and relies on upon temperature http://www.nasa.gov/lb/worldbook/wbkids/k_evaporation.html ( ppm ) ( ° F) Adapted from http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/pictures/historical03.gif National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/about-collage.html)

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Earth’s Sluggish Carbon Balance

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Earth’s carbon sources and sinks Pre-1900’s: C biosph = c profound sea 1900’s-2000’s: C biosph > c profound sea Post-2000’s?: C biosph > c profound sea Post-2100’s?: C biosph = c profound sea j anthro c biosph τ ~ 100 years C profound sea IPCC4 Figure 7.3

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The earth’s reaction to C discharge situations http://cisac.stanford.edu/news/bps_chief_scientist_discusses_secure_sustainable_energy_in_drell_lecture_20080205/

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Humanity’s Appetite for Energy and Carbon

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The “IPAT” Relationship 13.5 TW 43 TW Ė (10 12 W) Impact = Affluence · Population · Technology Ė = (GDP/N) · N · (Ė/GDP) 0.45 W/($/yr) 0.15 W/($/yr) Energy Consump-tion Rate per capita Gross Domestic Product Energy Intensity Popu-lation 25,000 US$ 5,000 US$ Adapted from M.I. Hoffert, K. Caldeira, A.K. Jain, E.F. Haites, L.D.D. Harvey, S.D. Potter, M.E. Schlesinger, S.H. Schneider, R.G. Watts, T.M.L. Wigley, and D.J. Wuebbles, "Energy ramifications of future adjustment of barometrical CO2 content," Nature 395, 881-884 (Oct 1998) 11 Bper 6.1 Bper

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The drowsy reduction in carbon power http://www.undp.org/vitality/exercises/wea/index.html 0.49 GtC/(TW-yr) Adapted from M.I. Hoffert, K. Caldeira, A.K. Jain, E.F. Haites, L.D.D. Harvey, S.D. Potter, M.E. Schlesinger, S.H. Schneider, R.G. Watts, T.M.L. Wigley, and D.J. Wuebbles, "Energy ramifications of future adjustment of environmental CO2 content," Nature 395, 881-884 (Oct 1998) 0.3 GtC/(TW-yr)

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What would we be able to do? Arrangement A: Sequester the Carbon Plan B: Switch to Non-Fossil Fuels E.g., there is a lot of sunlight based (a territory the measure of Venezuela could control the world) But not prudent yet so require R&D and carbon impose But a carbon duty could be a delay GDP, unless it substitutes for money assessment Plan C: Climate Engineering Global planting, barometrical water/ice nucleation, earth albedo control, … Plan D: Adapt to an Earth-wide temperature boost Developed countries are the reason, however undeveloped nations are slightest ready to stand to adjust What i