STEM plan: A market analyst\'s point of view Graeme Harrison Head All-Island Consultancy, Oxford Economics Engineering Careers Event 23 rd June 2009Slide 2
Outline Economic setting NI future aptitude needs examine Other research InvestNI Manufacturing factual diagram DEL ICT abnormal state future expertise needs STEM request STEM supply Returns to STEM Summary Note STEM Review prone to cover some of same zonesSlide 3
Economic backgroundSlide 4
A worldwide subsidence – first since the war…Slide 5
End of a period of UK development …Slide 6
A wide sectoral reach …Slide 7
End of NI brilliant time …Slide 8
NI future ability needs investigateSlide 9
Scope of research Empirical appraisal of future ability needs (by NQF and NVQ level) and degree subject request of NI economy, including for need segments (ICT, life sciences, hey tech producing and money related administrations) Baseline (EDF Sept 08) and optimistic situation The exploration is as of now being upgraded with most recent standpoints (weaker in short-run) Demand concentrate yet some supply-side components Model created gives a predictable technique to assessing the quantum of future ability needs Can be effortlessly returned to with a debilitated monetary viewpoint, in more settled times or with an alternate optimistic situation (e.g. development of \'green occupations\', reshaping of monetary & business administrations and so on) Compliments more subjective, \'segment by division\' mastery in SSC Sector Skill Agreements and can be connected on a bespoke sectoral premise (e.g. SSC impressions)Slide 10
Evidence from meetings … STEM graduates are and will keep on being sought after Though worry that the number and nature of graduates inside science and designing has been dropping at a disturbing rate The nature of degrees is turning into a shortcoming, with areas, for example, the assembling being less inspired with today\'s graduates, a large portion of which it terms as \'wide brush\' graduates Under-supply of graduates in a few segments exists because of the absence of consciousness of vocation openings "The nature of staff in the course of the most recent decade in NI has been diminishing. Bring down section necessities at colleges would one say one is of the central point adding to this pattern"Slide 11
Narrow "unspecialised" subject concentrationSlide 12
STEM fixationsSlide 13
STEM focuses excl medicinal subjectsSlide 14
Where could NI be? In the event that NI had same sectoral and occupation aptitude and subject structure … 16,000 more NQF 4/5 utilized people in work 48,000 more chiefs and experts in work 7,000 more inventive/craftsmanship degree holders and 4,000 more STEM degree holders in work (8,000 less with Business and Administration in work) But difficult for NI to rapidly draw in or make employments truly requiring more graduates, directors, STEM degrees and so forth High share of these employments situate in Greater South East It is a request and supply issue!Slide 15
4k more STEM graduates in workforce …Slide 16
Recession affect – over-supply in short-run Baseline Short-term viewpoint much weaker nowSlide 17
Recovery – still a critical interest for work Baseline Even without an arrival to development of the previous decade still a noteworthy interest for work by and large 15,000 employments accessible dad with no net increment in absolute occupations Growth of 5,000-6,000 net new occupations dad is more feasible for NI – predictable with training outturn and direct in-movementSlide 18
Need for an adjusted supply … Just under portion of net necessity for NQF 4 or more Still 1 in 6 accessible positions will require NQF 1 and beneathSlide 19
Other researchSlide 20
Manufacturing – a declining area?Slide 21
Manufacturing – a declining division? Work development a decade agoSlide 22
Manufacturing – a declining segment?Slide 23
Towards send out drove development …Slide 24
Worrying supply-side patterns - ICTSlide 25
UCAS acknowledgments ICT – falling qualitySlide 26
STEM requestSlide 27
Still a +ve net necessity … Manufacturing a declining segment however huge positive net prerequisiteSlide 28
STEM deficiencies could happen 2010-2020 yearly normal (000s) Potential STEM deficit under optimistic situation (dad): Physical sciences: 40 Mathematics: 30 Computer Science: 200 Engineering & Technology: 300 Before considering descending STEM enrolment slantSlide 29
STEM supplySlide 30
STEM degree workforce poolSlide 31
STEM UCAS acknowledgments (NI HEIs)Slide 32
Returns to STEMSlide 33
First occupation returnsSlide 34
Wage returnsSlide 35
Facing another world The end of an obligation time Who can spend (not business, not purchaser, not government?) Not 100% genuine – there are chances to spend and some are doing Tomorrow should be fare driven not obligation drove – assembling of developing significance? Economies need to enhance UK over-reliant on monetary administrations NI over-subject to open division/too little a private area Could mechanical generation come back to the UK as creation and transportation costs rise somewhere else? The earth will be perpetually worldwide - abilities will in this manner be significantly more pivotal Leading not taking after matters (e.g. Framework)Slide 37
Economist\'s inquiries Is the blend of abilities proper – excessively broad at top end? How to future aptitudes coordinate – STEM request and supply? How to invert STEM supply-side patterns? What ought to the message be? Is it a request issue? Providing specialty aptitudes in some STEM territories – great return however costly – does it fit subsidizing model? Abilities in vitality parts – how well do we know (green innovation and so on)?Slide 38
Contact: Graeme Harrison Head All-Island Consultancy, Oxford Economics Tel: 028 9266 0669 Email: email@example.com
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