Systematic Tradecraft.


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Investigators . Examiner Work Environment. . . The Challenge. Variability(@ Content Level). Growing World of Data. Transforming Data into Intelligence . IM
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Logical Tradecraft " Solid knowledge on psychological oppression is difficult to create… I might want to salute the unsung legends of the battle against fear mongering. These saints are the insight examiners. Frequently they have little to go on: a photo, a part of a caught discussion, the content of a dispatch, the rundown of a meeting, an utilized aircraft ticket. Now and then, it resemble sorting out a huge jigsaw riddle, however it is a riddle that can spare lives." George Shultz Former Secretary of State

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ANALYSTS The Challenge Analyst Work Environment

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Velocity Volume IMINT HUMINT SIGINT IC Collection Sources MASINT Variety (@ Signal/Media Level) OSINT Volatility Expanding World of Data Expanding World of Data Variability (@ Content Level)

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S E N S O R P H Y S I C A L D A T An O B J E C T S "Data Spectrum" B I T S I G N A L S Types of Intelligence Current Estimative Warning Scientific & Technical Research Intel Report IC Customers … INT Part of the "Knowledge CYCLE Processing Reporting Collection Analysis Raw Data Intelligence Turning Data into Intelligence IM … SIG … HUM … MAS … OS ... Single Discipline Analysis All Source Analysis Information

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Events/Activities/Processes Relationships Analytic Knowledge Information Retrieval Content Data Mark-up Assessment & Interpretation Properties/Attributes Presentation & Visualization Time/Temporal Issues Location/Spatial Issues Reporting & Dissemination Data Filtering & Selection Instances Content Data Transformation Synthesis& Fusion IC Analysts Humans/Organizations Physical Objects Information Understanding Information Discovery Expanding World of Data  Information  Intelligence Synthesis & Fusion of Observables inside a Given Context "Observables" Who, What, When, Where, How Time/Temporal Issues Location/Spatial Issues

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Intentions Motivation Attitudes/Perspectives Meaning Analytic Knowledge Information Retrieval Content Data Mark-up Assessment & Interpretation Presentation & Visualization Time/Temporal Issues Location/Spatial Issues Values/Beliefs Goals/Objectives Reporting & Dissemination Data Filtering & Selection Content Data Transformation Synthesis& Fusion IC Analysts Humans/Organizations Physical Objects Information Understanding Information Discovery Expanding World of Data  Information  Intelligence Assessments, Interpretations, Judgments & Predictions Location/Spatial Issues Time/Temporal Issues "Behavioral Factors" Why? Area/Spatial Issues

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Active Cross-Fertilization Analytic Knowledge Information Retrieval Content Data Mark-up Assessment & Interpretation Presentation & Visualization Reporting & Dissemination Data Filtering & Selection Content Data Transformation Synthesis& Fusion IC Analysts Strong Interaction Information Understanding Information Discovery Location/Spatial Issues Time/Temporal Issues Humans/Organizations Physical Objects Breadth of Information Exploitation Applied over the greater part of the "INTs" Data  Information  Intelligence "Observables" & "Behavioral Factors" are NOT Independent Activities "Observables" "Behavioral Factors"

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Analytic Knowledge Information Retrieval Content Data Mark-up Assessment & Interpretation Presentation & Visualization Time/Temporal Issues Location/Spatial Issues Reporting & Dissemination Data Filtering & Selection Content Data Transformation Synthesis& Fusion IC Analysts Humans/Organizations Physical Objects Information Understanding Information Discovery Expanding World of Data  Information  Intelligence Combined "Observables" & "Behavioral Factors" Events/Activities/Processes Observables Relationships Time/Temporal Issues Properties/Attributes Goals/Objectives Values/Beliefs Instances Attitudes/Perspectives Meaning Intentions Motivation Behavioral Factors Location/Spatial Issues

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IC Analysts Taking a Closer Look at IC Analysts

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IC Analysts Universal Similarities do Exist Intelligence Community Analysts They are much more than simply easygoing clients of data They work in a data rich environment where they have entry to huge amounts of heterogeneous information They are quite often topic specialists inside their doled out errand ranges They track and take after a given occasion, situation, issue, or circumstance for a broadened timeframe They oftentimes have broad joint effort with different examiners They are centered around their allocated assignment or mission and will do whatever it takes to fulfill it The finished result that outcomes from their examination is frequently judged against the benchmarks of: Timeliness Accuracy Usability Completeness Relevance

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Major Differences Do Exist (amongst offices and inside offices) Between single source and all source experts (information designs, level of closeness to the crude data, openness to logical data) Between diagnostic areas (counter fear based oppression, WMD, local investigation, weapons frameworks, and so on) Between sorts of insight created (e.g. ebb and flow insight, estimative knowledge, and so on.) Experience level in the specialty of examination and capacity to comprehend the scientific procedure Understanding and utilization of systematic systems Customer prerequisites (key, operational, strategic) Unique individual contrasts

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Intelligence Analyst\'s Operational Context

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Sample of an Analytic Work Flow Collaborate with Colleagues Library Research Tasking Thinking Completed Report Copy/Paste Annotate Internet Search Compose/Write … Compose/Write Revisions Time

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Fusion of Multilayer Analysis Personal Relationships Organizational Relationships Technical Processes/Flows Transportation Networks Currency/Financial Transfers Electronic Connectivity/Information Flows

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Collector 5 grabs occasion arranging material in an attack Collector 4 watch occasion related data & reports Collector 1 watches occasion arranging & reports Collectors 1,2,3 watch occasion Collector 1 reports Collector 2 reports Collector 3 reports H-n H+1 H-1 H-n Event Planning Aftermath of the Event H Hour The Challenge of Time in Analysis Different sources don\'t report at the same time on an occasion. Information from various sources might be close continuous or take years to arrive. The theory of today might be tossed out by new information landing one week from now. Information must be envisioned after some time as examples which change in time as redesigns happen

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The Challenge of Credibility in Analysis What do we search for in a source? Believability Reliability Relevance Can be affirmed What guidelines would we say we are held to in reporting Accurate Timely Actionable Complete Relevant

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Where Do We Go From Here?

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THE SOCIAL SCIENCES ARE, IN FACT, THE "HARD" SCIENCES. Developing ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES EPSTEIN AND AXTELL

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"No one KNOWS" QUESTIONS WHAT IS GOING ON INSIDE THE IRAQI/SERB/NORTH KOREAN REGIMES? WHAT WOULD COLLAPSE OF THESE REGIMES LOOK LIKE? HOW STIFF A RESISTANCE WILL THE FEDAYEEN AND OTHER SADDAAM SUPPORTERS PUT UP? WHAT IS Happening IN ANY COUNTRY, AND WHERE IS IT GOING? WHAT WILL THE MIDEAST LOOK LIKE IN 2010? WHAT ARE THE ROOTS OF TERRORISM & HOW CAN WE AFFECT THOSE ROOTS

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CHARACTERISTICS OF "No one KNOWS" QUESTIONS COMPLEXITY MANY INDEPENDENT ACTORS MULTIPLE VARIABLES DYNAMIC/ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR EMERGENT OUTCOMES HUMAN BEHAVIOR INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP PROCESSES

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NEW APPROACHES INFORMATION INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE UNDERSTANDING TO MOVE FROM PROVIDING INTELLIGENCE TO PROVIDING UNDERSTANDING NEW APPROACHES TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS FACTS DATA PROCESSES/OUTCOMES CONNECTIONS/RELATIONSHIPS

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Potential New Approaches NATURAL EXPERIMENTATION COMPLEXITY SCIENCE MODELING AND SIMULATION WHAT ELSE?

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SOME OTHER IDEAS EXPERIMENT WITH AND INTEGRATE ONGOING EFFORTS (IC Test Nets) PUSH THE SCIENCE - PARTNER WITH NSF AND DARPA INCREASE FUNDING FOR EXPLORATORY PROGRAMS SMALL GROUP MODELS SOCIETAL MODELS SUBSIDIZE SELECT WARGAME DEVELOPERS (EXISTING GAME ENHANCEMENTS) "LIBRARY" OR CROSS-REFERENCE FOR INTELLIGENCE RELATED SIMULATIONS

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ANALYSIS AND COMPLEXITY "THE RULES OF THE GAME: LEARN EVERYTHING, READ EVERYTHING, INQUIRE INTO EVERYTHING… WHEN TWO TEXTS, OR TWO ASSERTIONS, OR PERHAPS TWO IDEAS, ARE IN CONTRADICTION, BE READY TO RECONCILE THEM RATHER THAN CANCEL ONE BY THE OTHER; REGARD THEM AS TWO DIFFERENT FACETS, OR TWO SUCCESSIVE STAGES, OF THE SAME REALITY, A REALITY CONVINCINGLY HUMAN JUST BECAUSE IT IS COMPLEX." Marguerite Yourcenar, Memoirs of Hadrian

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Non-Linear Dynamics of Human Behavior (NDHB) Advanced R&D Program Can we accomplish a superior comprehension of Human Dynamics; Individual and Small Group Behavior; Leadership Decision Making; Large Group Dynamics? Could we show it? Could we utilize demonstrating ways to deal with impact the present or to estimate potential future occasions/exercises? What methodologies are best for which insight issues? Could we utilize models and recreations for learning disclosure? Could we show crosswise over missing information? Can we utilize models and recreations as a technique for preparing experts in speculation era and argumentation?

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POSSIBLE OPERATIONAL PROBLEMS TO BE SOLVED IN MODELING HUMAN BEHAVIOR Anticipating Surprise – Asymmetric dangers & strategies Avoiding innovation shock (novel methods for utilizing existing innovation and utilization of developing advancements)

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