The Auto and Fuel Without bounds.


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Auto without bounds is the module half and half. The Global Warming Century ... For H2 Cars, Think 2035-2055.... Indeed, even with innovation leaps forward and a nursery gas ...
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The Car and Fuel of the Future JOSEPH ROMM jromm@cap-e.com

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Background Former Acting Assistant Secretary EERE Billion-dollar clean vitality exertion Hydrogen, energy units, renewables, mixtures… . The Hype About Hydrogen: One of 2004\'s best sci-tech books: Library Journal "The Car and Fuel of the Future," NCEP, 7/04 Exec Dir, Center for Energy & Climate Solns.

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Hydrogen Vision later on, proficiency and $/ton CO2 principle H2 autos are wasteful, exorbitant GHG reducers A post-2040 atmosphere methodology, best case scenario May well end up being a deadlock Stationary energy components are promising: Especially high-temperature SOFCs Car without bounds is the module cross breed

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The Global Warming Century Solidifying experimental agreement on GHG driving Near-assurance we\'ll overshoot 550 ppm (multiplying) 700 ppm appears to be likely, more if positive criticisms exist So, 10°+ F warming in U.S. is the same old thing 20+ foot ocean level ascent is presently conceivable most pessimistic scenario By 2030: 1400 GW of coal; transport GHGs twofold Must get off the same old thing way quick or face tripling Must address coal and autos at the same time

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For H2 Cars, Think 2035-2055… . Indeed, even with innovation leaps forward and a nursery gas top, "hydrogen doesn\'t enter the transportation division significantly until after 2035 ." — Jae Edmonds et al., PNNL, 2/04 "Aggregate time to recognizable effect [of HFCVs]… is liable to be over 50 years ." — John Heywood, MIT, 7/05

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… Or Maybe Never "On the off chance that I let you know " never ,\' would you be disturbed?" Bill Reinert, U.S. administrator of Toyota\'s propelled advances bunch, when asked when energy components autos would supplant gas controlled autos. 1/05 Is there a superior AFV that lessens utilizes low-carbon assets all the more proficiently and has much lower framework costs?

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The 7 Barriers to AFVs 1) High first cost for vehicle 2) Storage (i.e. restricted extent) 3) Safety and obligation 4) High filling cost (contrasted with gas) 5) Limited fuel stations: Chicken & egg issue 6) Not a practical contamination reducer 7) Tough rivalry: Hybrids

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Barrier 1: Fuel Cell Cost PEM motors cost ~$3000/kw. Need <$50/kw while expanding toughness 4x, keeping up high effectiveness, tending to warmth dismissal… . This ~100x drop could take decades PV, wind took 20 years for a 10x drop Major innovation achievement required

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Barrier 2: The Storage Showstopper? "The DOE ought to stop endeavors on high-weight tanks and cryogenic fluid stockpiling… . They have little guarantee of long haul common sense for light-obligation vehicles." (NRC, 2/04) "We\'re way off the mark to fathoming stockpiling innovation issues yet." (Toyota, 2/04) " another material must be found ." (APS 3/04)

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Barrier 3: Safety and Liability Hydrogen: Good security record in industry BECAUSE of difficult codes and standard. The run of the mill energizing "station damages all security directions for hydrogen and no sensible zoning board would allow it, if made mindful of the realities." Reuel Shinnar, Prof. Chem. Designing Technology in Society (2003) Need new capacity innovation

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Barrier 4: Most Expensive Alt. Fuel "The day by day drive to work in a hydrogen power device auto will cost four times more than in an electric or cross breed vehicle." (Ulf Bossel, 3/04) H2 from CH4, matrix: $4 to $8+ gallon equiv. "Green" H2: $8+ gallon equiv. Will buyers acknowledge the high cost of H2? Will early adopters acknowledge grimy H2?

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Barrier 5: Chicken-and-Egg Problem BP: 30% to half fuel station scope required from the very first moment Argonne: $600 billion framework cost Shell: "many billions of dollars" Who\'ll construct foundation without autos out and about and the other way around?

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Barrier 6: H2 not a CO2-saver pre-2035 "… fossil fills will be the central wellsprings of hydrogen for a few decades." (NRC 2/04) H2 autos can\'t battle an unnatural weather change until: After "CO2 emanations from power era are for all intents and purposes disposed of… ." ( Science , 7/03) After "there is an overflow of renewable electricity." (UK Study, 1/03)

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Barrier 7: The Competition (today) Compared to half and half PZEVs like the Prius: FC: Will cost more ($20,000+) FC: 3x+ yearly fuel bill (5x+ green H) FC: 1/3 territory (and less spacious) FC: Limited energizing choices FC: Major wellbeing and obligation issues FC: NOT greener Likely through 2025 if very little more

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Low-carbon power: E-cross breeds Electric mixtures (Can be connected to network) All-electric 20+ miles, then a standard crossover More and more gas will be uprooted Can be a Flexible Fuel Vehicle (running on biofuels) Why use future clean power for H2? E-half and half uses power 3 to 4 times all the more effectively Make utilization of existing foundation/vehicles

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