The Netherlands approach for creating environmental change situations.


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The Netherlands approach for producing environmental change situations Bart van sanctum Hurk, KNMI and numerous others Activity from a week ago Give a request of appraisal of the atmosphere affectability in view of the watched CO 2 and T. Give contentions about the legitimacy of this methodology
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Slide 1

The Netherlands approach for creating environmental change situations Bart van sanctum Hurk, KNMI and numerous others New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

Slide 2

Exercise from a week ago Give a request of evaluation of the atmosphere affectability in light of the watched CO 2 and T. Give contentions about the legitimacy of this methodology New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

Slide 3

What are atmosphere situations? No forecasts yet What if… projections prob T New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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What are atmosphere situations? No expectations however What if… projections With the accompanying attributes: Plausible : reasonable possibility of really occuring later on (barring far-fetched circumstances) Internally steady : mean and compelling precipitation, temperature and so forth can all happen in the same atmosphere Relevant : went for data requirements for effect appraisal or approach assessment applications New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

Slide 5

Model projections of future worldwide atmosphere Models are defective Future nursery gas focuses are obscure Coordinated exertion: characterize set of emanation situations figure fixation development utilize this to make projections with scope of GCMs AR4: Large (~25) nr of GCMs accessible for 1900 – 2200 ( http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/) New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Projections mean precipitation (2050/1990) with the MPI model A2 A1B +25% Winter Summer - half New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Projections mean precipitation (2050/1990) with the MPI model A2 A1B +25% Winter Mean change Winter change  +5 – +10% Summer change  - 10 – - 15% Difference situations A2 a touch more grounded in winter A1B somewhat more grounded in summer Gradient N-S angle in winter SE-NW slope in summer Resolution exceptionally coarse (>150 km) Extremes Only regular mean! No data on extremes or nr of wet days. Summer - half New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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The creation of the KNMI’06 situations New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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The generation of the KNMI’06 situations New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Global mean environmental change situations Start with projections with Global Circulation Models (GCM’s): Multiple discharge situations Multiple models New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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But there’s more than worldwide mean temperature Sea level weight distinction from 2 diverse GCMs Van Ulden and Van Oldenborgh, 2006 New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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G-west in West-Europe for present-day atmosphere Approx 10 AR4 GCM-runs Observations Models Van Ulden et al, 2006 New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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G-west end of 21 st century with multiplied CO 2 - levels Changes in respect to present atmosphere New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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G-west end of 21 st century with multiplied CO 2 - levels Changes in respect to present atmosphere New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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The impact from the driving GCM! Change of precipitation yearly cycle in Rhine region from various provincial atmosphere model recreations Two diverse GCM’s ECHAM4/OPYC (more Atlantic shift in weather conditions in winter, less in summer) HadAM3H (little changes available for use measurements) New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

Slide 16

Winter temperature and wind course A2 situation Control simulati on Observed 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 - 2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 10 Eastern winds give low winter temperatures New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Rationale of the situations The directing variables 1. Worldwide temperature – 2. Quality of occasional mean west-course (not for z ocean ) Strength of west-flow month New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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The creation of the KNMI’06 situations New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Regional environmental change: downscaling GCM-framework box excessively coarse Global model Regional model New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Downscaling Using so as to down = neighborhood translation of GCM-situation nearby included data Orography, land/ocean Land use, … 2 groups of systems Statistical Dynamical New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Statistical downscaling Ingredients: Local watched time arrangement of climate variable (e.g. precipitation) Archive of expansive scale course pointers (e.g. gaseous tension, temperature/wind in higher air, inclinations of stickiness, weight, …) Correlation-mathematical statement Large scale course markers from a GCM projection to be downscaled New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Statistical downscaling I from GCM’s + an and b from neighborhood adjustment  nearby P New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Dynamical downscaling: Regional Climate Model (RCM) High determination GCM (50 – 20 km) better determining area ocean, orography, atm.gradients Lateral limit conditions from reanalysis (present-day atmosphere conditions) or GCM runs (situation runs) multi-level fleeting recurrence subject to space Inner space free developing New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Analysis of AR4 GCMs: precipitation and temperature Local downscaling: Daily values as opposed to occasional means (Soft) extremes Number of downpour days 10 PRUDENCE RCM’s 8x HadAM3H (genuinely dry in summer, unobtrusive SST, solid  circ in summer, less in winter) 2x ECHAM4 (exceptionally wet in winter and dry in summer, solid  circ , more grounded impact SST) Problem: no GCM run agent for  circ  0 “Escape”: KNMI RCM remains genuinely wet in summer (can be utilized for G-en W-situation) in winter the RCM runs cover the GCM-variability sensible New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

Slide 25

Analysis of AR4 GCMs: precipitation and temperature Downscaling with RCM’s Relationship nearby variables – directing variables New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Analysis of AR4 GCMs: precipitation and temperature Downscaling with RCM’s Relationship neighborhood variables – controlling variables Circulation-subordinate and –independent relapse coefficient x circ en x T Apply relapse in situations: var = x T  T glob + x circ  circ Weigh RCM’s per situation to improve contrasts New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Result: change in 2050 in respect to 1990 New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Result: change in 2050 in respect to 1990 mean temperature yearly coldest day With flow change the coldest temperature changes more than mean New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Result: change in 2050 in respect to 1990 Nr of wet days emphatically reliant on dissemination change wet day recurrence New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Result: change in 2050 in respect to 1990 Wet day mean precipitation reliant on worldwide temperature rise mean precipitation New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Result: change in 2050 in respect to 1990 Extreme precipitation is more probable in a wetter atmosphere day by day precipitation surpassed 1/10yrs New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Result: change in 2050 in respect to 1990 yearly greatest day by day mean wind Windscenarios scarcely demonstrate a huge change New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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Result: change in 2050 in respect to 1990 Sea level scenario’s after 2050 show quickening: For 2100 the reach is somewhere around 35 and 85 cm ocean level ascent New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

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General picture Extreme temperature change is more grounded than mean , particularly when flow additionally changes When course changes number of precipitation days is unequivocally diminished in summer, bringing about a decrease of mean late spring precipitation In winter mean precipitation builds (subject to flow) Extreme precipitation increments both in summer and winter Sea level ascent is somewhat littler than in TAR 1/yr Wind marginally increments (however not fundamentally ) New atmosphere situations for the Netherlands – www.knmi.nl/climatescenarios

Slide 35

Tailored atmosphere situations Specific utilization in numerous applications (e.g. water administration) requires “tailoring” Examples High determina

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